Without further ado, here are the teams I predict finishing thirteenth:
Columbus Blue Jackets
This is where it gets hard to in the Western Conference. Really hard. I can see the Columbus Blue Jackets making the playoffs, and I can say the same for every other team I have left to make a prediction for in the West. Steve Mason could easily have a bounce-back season, while Nikita Filatov could win the Calder and maybe even score 30 providing Columbus with two lines that are a true offensive threat. Jakub Voracek, Derick Brassard, and Kris Russell could all have breakout seasons and Jan Hejda and Mike Commodore could once again be a great shut-down pairing.
However, while I think at least a few of those things will happen, chances are they won't all happen. And without them all happening, Columbus will be in tough to make the playoffs. It also doesn't help that they're in a division where every team expects to make the playoffs and to make some noise in the playoffs. I still think that Columbus will be better than people think this coming year, but after much debate I just don't see them being consistently better than other teams in the Western Conference (apart from Dallas and Edmonton), and thus I have them finishing 13th.
Carolina Hurricanes
Predicting the Eastern Conference still seems easy, at least compared to the Western Conference. Carolina is another team embracing a full rebuild around stars Eric Staal and Cam Ward. They will have a lot of youth in their lineup this year trying to make a name for themselves (Jamie McBain, Zach Boychuk, Drayson Bowman, Brett Carson, etc.) while will be relying on third year Brandon Sutter to anchor the second line.
Carolina also has a lot of contracts that are expiring next summer in Joni Pitkanen, Erik Cole, Sergei Samsonov, Jussi Jokinen, Chad LaRose, and Anton Babchuk and make take advantage of what looks to be a strong free agent crop next summer. So, getting a lottery pick would seem to be in Carolina's advantage this year.
However, one cannot discount Eric Staal and Cam Ward, especially in the second half of the season. Staal particularly becomes close to unstoppable in the winter months and it wouldn't be surprising to see Carolina make another second-half charge up the standings this year the way they have the previous two years. Still, I don't think it will be enough to make the playoffs.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Friday, August 27, 2010
Stevie Y & My Predictions for 14th
Steve Yzerman continues a busy first summer by resigning gritty winger Steve Downie to a two-year contract with a $1.85 million cap hit and signing defenseman Randy Jones for a year at one million (per capgeek.com). Downie became an important part of the Lightning last year (and is more or less the only true asset gained from trading Dan Boyle) scoring twenty-two goals, and his cap hit seems quite reasonable. Meanwhile, Randy Jones is a depth signing and he'll provide a veteran presence on the third pairing, and make the younger defensemen (Matt Smaby, Matt Lashoff, Mike Lundin, Ty Wishart) have to compete to earn a spot on the club. It's interesting to note that this always also seems to be the strategy of Ken Holland with the recent signing of Ruslan Salei being a prime example. Competition for spots in training camp is always a good thing.
As for the teams that I think will place 14th, I'll start out west.
Dallas Stars
While Edmonton is very obviously going through a rebuild, Dallas seems to be more subtly going through a rebuild. There is a definite changing of the guard seeing as how the likes of Mike Modano, Jere Lehtinen, and Marty Turco have departed this summer and staples such as Sergei Zubov departed in previous years.
Brad Richards had a mega season last year, and he along with Loui Eriksson, Jamie Benn and James Neal (though Neal reamains unsigned) look to lead the Stars offense. And with veterans Brendan Morrow and Mike Ribeiro still in the fold, the Stars look like a team that should be able to score.
However, the questions come on defense and at goaltending. On defense, Stephane Robidas has put together several impressive seasons, but so far he's proven to be the only legitimate top four defender on the team. Trevor Daley, Nicklas Grossman, and Matt Niskanen all need to get more consistent to be effect top pairing defenders while Skrastins, Fistric, and Lukowich all shouldn't be expected to play top-4 minutes.
The questionable defensive corps won't make life easy for Kari Lehtonen, who hasn't played a full season in a couple of years. While Lehtonen is very talented, and still young, he needs to show that he can play through an entire season without getting injured while at this point Andrew Raycroft can't be expected to be anything more than a back-up goaltender.
These kinds of question marks in the Western Conference make me finding it difficult to find a team besides Edmonton that the Stars will be better than, and thus I have them predicted at 14th.
As for the Eastern Conference I've got the...
New York Islanders
The Islanders added a lot of defensive depth this summer by signing Mark Eaton, Milan Jurcina, and by trading for James Wisniewski. Still, the argument could be made that none of those players are bona-fide top-4 defensemen, which the Islanders are lacking. Still, the depth will be a good thing and will make youngsters like Bruno Gervais and Calvin De Haan work harder to try to earn a spot on the team.
Yet, seeing as how the Islanders seem to be looking to try to get Rick DiPietro back to a point where can once again be the franchise netminder he was signed to be, it would have seemed as if a higher profile defenseman would have been a good fit for the team.
As for DiPietro, his health has to be a concern as he's missed most of the past two seasons due to knee injuries. Meanwhile, Dwayne Roloson had a good season last year, but at his age shouldn't be asked to start more than 40-50 games.
The forwards for the Islanders are young, and relatively unproven. Last year's star rookie John Tavares will likely improve on a solid rookie campaign, and it seems like Kyle Okposo is due for a breakout year. However it has to be wondered whether Matt Moulson was a one-year wonder, and whether Josh Bailey, Rob Schremp, and Blake Comeau will be ready to consistently contribute on the score sheet. Just like Dallas, while the team has plenty of potential and exciting players, there are far too many questions to expect them to place higher than 14th this coming season. And for a young, rebuilding team that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
2010/2011 Season Predictions
So, while it still may be a little too early to start making preseason predictions due to teams still signing significant free agents (such as LA signing Willie Mitchell and Vancouver signing Raffi Torres today), I think that most teams are pretty much set or at a point where their rosters can be guessed. So I'll start my predictions, with who I think will be 15th in each conference.
Western Conference: Edmonton Oilers
While I think the Oilers will finish last this year, it's a very exciting time to be an Oilers fan. They drafted Taylor Hall first overall this past draft, who will likely be a dynamic scoring winger. They also have Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson signed to contracts, both of who are also rookie forwards that are expected to become premier scorers. The team will also boast the return of Ales Hemsky who missed most of last year due to injury. And as long as Dustin Penner can keep his rediscovered scoring touch from last year, this should be a fun team to watch on any given night.
However, the team still lacks depth at center. Neither Gilbert Brule or Shawn Horcoff can be expected to be top line centers, while it's also hard to pencil in a rookie into that position. Also the young guns are bound to go through stretches where they struggle to put points on the board, as all rookies not named Crosby and Ovechkin do. Resigning Mike Comrie (who recently married Hilary Duff) for another year could help provide a little more depth.
Yet, the team has bigger questions at defense and goaltending. The Oilers have been trying to move defenseman Sheldon Souray all summer, and have so far been unsuccessful. Due to his hefty contract for the next two years, it seems unlikely any team will be willing to take him on. This is a problem because Souray has expressed his dismay with the way the organization has treated him since he suffered an injury. This is also a black mark on the organization because the team has enough trouble luring in big free agents - in fact Souray was the only big name they've been able to acquire the past few summers. Ryan Whitney, Kurtis Foster, Tom Gilbert, Ladislav Smid, and Jim Vandermeer make up the rest of the defensive corps, and none of them can really be considered a top pairing defenseman.
Meanwhile, the team has three signed goaltenders. Nikolai Khabibulin was decent before he got hurt last year, but he's been injured quite often the past few years so his health is a concern. He is also battling a DUI which may lead to a lack of focus. Jeff Deslauriers showed some promise, but isn't a number one goalie yet while Devan Dubynk seems to project as a back-up.
Of course, a lot of things could go right for the Oilers that could lead them to having a good season. But, every other team in the Western Conference has legitimate hopes of making the playoffs, whereas the Oilers are content to start building through youth. I'm thinking the Oilers will keep rebuilding this year and finishing last in the conference will help them do just that as they'll be assured a lottery pick.
Eastern Conference: Florida Panthers
The Panthers are similar to the Oilers. They had a top three pick this past draft (Erik Gudbranson), and are a team that is definitely rebuilding. There is reason to be excited as current GM Dale Tallon is the man who built the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks. He worked quickly to acquire a plethora of picks in this past draft, and acquired a solid NHL ready prospect in Michael Grabner from Vancouver.
In the process of acquiring the aforementioned assets though, he gave up power forward Nathan Horton and possibly the clubs best defenseman in Keith Ballard. Tallon will likely continue to pursue making trades that benefit the team in the future and could be very busy at the trade deadline as the Panthers will have a great deal of players who could be useful rentals in: Tomas Vokoun, Bryan McCabe, Cory Stillman, Steve Bernier, Radek Dvorak, Chris Higgins, and Marty Reasoner. While unlikely, it wouldn't entirely surprise me to see most of those players dealt at some point this year for draft picks and prospects.
With the Panthers obviously in just the beginning phases of their rebuild, it's hard to see them anywhere besides the bottom of the standings this year.
Western Conference: Edmonton Oilers
While I think the Oilers will finish last this year, it's a very exciting time to be an Oilers fan. They drafted Taylor Hall first overall this past draft, who will likely be a dynamic scoring winger. They also have Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson signed to contracts, both of who are also rookie forwards that are expected to become premier scorers. The team will also boast the return of Ales Hemsky who missed most of last year due to injury. And as long as Dustin Penner can keep his rediscovered scoring touch from last year, this should be a fun team to watch on any given night.
However, the team still lacks depth at center. Neither Gilbert Brule or Shawn Horcoff can be expected to be top line centers, while it's also hard to pencil in a rookie into that position. Also the young guns are bound to go through stretches where they struggle to put points on the board, as all rookies not named Crosby and Ovechkin do. Resigning Mike Comrie (who recently married Hilary Duff) for another year could help provide a little more depth.
Yet, the team has bigger questions at defense and goaltending. The Oilers have been trying to move defenseman Sheldon Souray all summer, and have so far been unsuccessful. Due to his hefty contract for the next two years, it seems unlikely any team will be willing to take him on. This is a problem because Souray has expressed his dismay with the way the organization has treated him since he suffered an injury. This is also a black mark on the organization because the team has enough trouble luring in big free agents - in fact Souray was the only big name they've been able to acquire the past few summers. Ryan Whitney, Kurtis Foster, Tom Gilbert, Ladislav Smid, and Jim Vandermeer make up the rest of the defensive corps, and none of them can really be considered a top pairing defenseman.
Meanwhile, the team has three signed goaltenders. Nikolai Khabibulin was decent before he got hurt last year, but he's been injured quite often the past few years so his health is a concern. He is also battling a DUI which may lead to a lack of focus. Jeff Deslauriers showed some promise, but isn't a number one goalie yet while Devan Dubynk seems to project as a back-up.
Of course, a lot of things could go right for the Oilers that could lead them to having a good season. But, every other team in the Western Conference has legitimate hopes of making the playoffs, whereas the Oilers are content to start building through youth. I'm thinking the Oilers will keep rebuilding this year and finishing last in the conference will help them do just that as they'll be assured a lottery pick.
Eastern Conference: Florida Panthers
The Panthers are similar to the Oilers. They had a top three pick this past draft (Erik Gudbranson), and are a team that is definitely rebuilding. There is reason to be excited as current GM Dale Tallon is the man who built the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks. He worked quickly to acquire a plethora of picks in this past draft, and acquired a solid NHL ready prospect in Michael Grabner from Vancouver.
In the process of acquiring the aforementioned assets though, he gave up power forward Nathan Horton and possibly the clubs best defenseman in Keith Ballard. Tallon will likely continue to pursue making trades that benefit the team in the future and could be very busy at the trade deadline as the Panthers will have a great deal of players who could be useful rentals in: Tomas Vokoun, Bryan McCabe, Cory Stillman, Steve Bernier, Radek Dvorak, Chris Higgins, and Marty Reasoner. While unlikely, it wouldn't entirely surprise me to see most of those players dealt at some point this year for draft picks and prospects.
With the Panthers obviously in just the beginning phases of their rebuild, it's hard to see them anywhere besides the bottom of the standings this year.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Recapping A Busy Monday
Yesterday was a pretty busy in the NHL for a Monday in August. So let's recap on what happened:
- The Detroit Red Wings signed veteran defenseman Ruslan Salei to a one year contract with a $1.1 million cap hit. The move was a depth move, and I looked at what will likely be Detroit's roster in the previous blog. However, it was pointed out by others that Salei and other new Wing, Mike Modano, may not be the best of friends: http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&VideoID=17949205
- The Philadelphia Flyers organization and tough guy Riley Cote made a unique move. Cote, who didn't get much playing time last year, especially under new coach Peter Laviolette, retired from the NHL to become an assistant coach of Philadelphia's AHL affiliate, the Adirondack Phantoms. This is unique for several reasons, one being that Cote is 28 years old and had another year on his contract with the Flyers. That's quite young for a coach, particularly a professional coach. And it helps Philadelphia as they no longer have to worry about Cote's (small) cap hit. The Flyers are a team that needs cap relief in any way possible. Still, a fascinating move.
- The Anaheim Ducks officially signed winger Teemu Selanne to a one-year contract. The more interesting part of this is Selanne's $4.5 million cap hit. Seeing as how he's only playing because he wants to win (supposedly) and how he's trying to get his good friend Paul Kariya to sign with Anaheim, one though he would have been fairly cheap to re-sign. Apparently that wasn't the case. Also, if the Ducks do sign Kariya too, I wouldn't be surprised if they explored trading unsigned Bobby Ryan for an elite defenseman as they continue to retool their defensive corps.
- And finally the biggest news of the day: A private arbitrator ruled that Ilja Kovalchuck's crazy contract with the New Jersey Devils was indeed a bad contract and thus the contract has been officially rejected. This makes Kovalchuck an unrestricted free agent again, however it seems impossibly that he doesn't work out a new contract with the Devils who already held a press conference where Kovalchuck said that he was happy to be a Devil for life. Still, it means that his cap hit will likely be considerably higher than the $6 million it would have been with the previous contract, which will mean New Jersey will have to move some players in order to fit under the salary cap. Should be interesting! I'll post another blog regarding my opinions on the rejected contract.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Wings Sign Ruslan Salei & Essentially Finalize Roster
This afternoon it was reported that the Detroit Red Wings signed veteran defenseman Ruslan Salei. Ken Holland has been saying he'd look at a veteran for the third defensive pairing, and opted for Salei. Essentially, Salei is a very similar player to Andreas Lilja. He provides little offense - though certainly a bit more than Lilja would - and is a steady player in his own end who isn't afraid of blocking shots. He's old at 35, and a bit injury prone. However the Wings like their depth at D and will likely be comfortable calling up someone to fill in for him in case it gets injured.
I expect the reason the Wings opted for Salei was because he came cheaper than the other options out there. It's been reported that Andreas Lilja is looking for $1.5 million, and Willie Mitchell (the player that most Wings fans and writers wanted) is likely looking for at least $2 million and looking to be a top 4 defender on a team whereas he could have only been a third pairing on Detroit with Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall, and Stuart. So far though, I haven't heard the actual contract for Salei.
The next move the Wings will make will be signing Justin Abdelkader. I'd expect his cap hit to be around $800k. With these two moves this is what the 2010/2011 roster for the Detroit Red Wings will look like:
Franzen - Datsyuk - Holmstrom
Filppula - Zetterberg - Bertuzzi
Hudler - Modano - Cleary
Abdelkader - Helm - Eaves
Draper - Miller/Ritola
Lidstrom - Rafalski
Kronwall - Stuart
Salei - Ericsson
Kindl/Meech
Howard - Osgood
As you can see, the Wings will be two players over their 23 man roster limit. As a result, I would expect to see Ritola and Meech either traded or waived. Some have suggested that Drew Miller will instead be traded away, however after watching Ritola for years he is far from a high end prospect. In essence, he could be a Patrick Eaves/Drew Miller type of player, but he may not even be able to be a regular NHL player which is why I think he's likely to go. Meanwhile, the Red Wings seem to have tired of Derek Meech as they have never given him a legitimate opportunity to succeed, and he's likely to go instead of promising prospect Jakub Kindl. I still wonder why Detroit elected to waive Kyle Quincey a few years ago instead of Derek Meech, but that's besides the point now.
As for the roster, I really think it's one of the deepest in the league for the upcoming season, particularly if Howard can continue his play from the previous season. And given that it's a contract year for Howard, I see no reason why he shouldn't continue his strong play.
I expect the reason the Wings opted for Salei was because he came cheaper than the other options out there. It's been reported that Andreas Lilja is looking for $1.5 million, and Willie Mitchell (the player that most Wings fans and writers wanted) is likely looking for at least $2 million and looking to be a top 4 defender on a team whereas he could have only been a third pairing on Detroit with Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall, and Stuart. So far though, I haven't heard the actual contract for Salei.
The next move the Wings will make will be signing Justin Abdelkader. I'd expect his cap hit to be around $800k. With these two moves this is what the 2010/2011 roster for the Detroit Red Wings will look like:
Franzen - Datsyuk - Holmstrom
Filppula - Zetterberg - Bertuzzi
Hudler - Modano - Cleary
Abdelkader - Helm - Eaves
Draper - Miller/Ritola
Lidstrom - Rafalski
Kronwall - Stuart
Salei - Ericsson
Kindl/Meech
Howard - Osgood
As you can see, the Wings will be two players over their 23 man roster limit. As a result, I would expect to see Ritola and Meech either traded or waived. Some have suggested that Drew Miller will instead be traded away, however after watching Ritola for years he is far from a high end prospect. In essence, he could be a Patrick Eaves/Drew Miller type of player, but he may not even be able to be a regular NHL player which is why I think he's likely to go. Meanwhile, the Red Wings seem to have tired of Derek Meech as they have never given him a legitimate opportunity to succeed, and he's likely to go instead of promising prospect Jakub Kindl. I still wonder why Detroit elected to waive Kyle Quincey a few years ago instead of Derek Meech, but that's besides the point now.
As for the roster, I really think it's one of the deepest in the league for the upcoming season, particularly if Howard can continue his play from the previous season. And given that it's a contract year for Howard, I see no reason why he shouldn't continue his strong play.
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Turco vs. Niemi
As most hockey fans know, last week the Chicago Blackhawks walked away from the 2.75 million arbitration award given to Antti Niemi and instead signed Marty Turco for at least a million less. It was obviously a move to further help the Blackhawks get underneath the salary cap, and many saw it as a sure sign that Chicago is in for a rough season. And while nobody wants to lose the goalie that just won them a Stanley Cup, I don't think going from Niemi to Turco is really that much of a downgrade.
Yes, Niemi had 7 shutouts in the regular season last year while not even being the starter for most of the season. He absolutely stole some games for Chicago last year, including in the playoffs (though not really in the finals). And he's considerably younger than Turco. However, even though he's extremely quick, Niemi had very poor rebound control for an NHL goalie. He was often bailed out by his quick defenders who were able to clear the puck after he made the initial save. Without that kind of defense though, I don't think Niemi's numbers would have been all that. Meanwhile, Turco has apparently lost his game these past few years. However, his team - the Dallas Stars - have also not had anything close to a defensive corps the past couple years. Ever since losing Zubov, the Stars have really been a mediocre defensive team, which is a large part of why they haven't been able to make the playoffs or play any kind of consistent hockey. So, I really don't think Turco is as bad as his numbers the past two years - which are still okay. And I've also seen playoff games where Turco was a beast and absolutely stole games. The best goaltending I've ever seen in a game was few years back when Turco and Nabokov squared off into triple overtime. It was unbelievable the saves that were being made at both ends.
Also, Turco is a known leader and has a great personality. I think he'll be the type of player fans can easily embrace.
Thus, I don't think fans should be too worried about Turco instead of Niemi. Instead, the worry should be about replacing the likes of Versteeg, Ladd, Sopel, and Eager.
Yes, Niemi had 7 shutouts in the regular season last year while not even being the starter for most of the season. He absolutely stole some games for Chicago last year, including in the playoffs (though not really in the finals). And he's considerably younger than Turco. However, even though he's extremely quick, Niemi had very poor rebound control for an NHL goalie. He was often bailed out by his quick defenders who were able to clear the puck after he made the initial save. Without that kind of defense though, I don't think Niemi's numbers would have been all that. Meanwhile, Turco has apparently lost his game these past few years. However, his team - the Dallas Stars - have also not had anything close to a defensive corps the past couple years. Ever since losing Zubov, the Stars have really been a mediocre defensive team, which is a large part of why they haven't been able to make the playoffs or play any kind of consistent hockey. So, I really don't think Turco is as bad as his numbers the past two years - which are still okay. And I've also seen playoff games where Turco was a beast and absolutely stole games. The best goaltending I've ever seen in a game was few years back when Turco and Nabokov squared off into triple overtime. It was unbelievable the saves that were being made at both ends.
Also, Turco is a known leader and has a great personality. I think he'll be the type of player fans can easily embrace.
Thus, I don't think fans should be too worried about Turco instead of Niemi. Instead, the worry should be about replacing the likes of Versteeg, Ladd, Sopel, and Eager.
Hockeytown Welcomes Modano
On Friday, the Detroit Red Wings has a press conference making the signing of Mike Modano official. The metro-Detroit native will wear #90 for the Wings as obviously Howe's #9 is retired.
Modano is 40 years old, and obviously isn't the superstar that he once was. However, this is till a rock solid moves for the Red Wings.
At 40, Modano is only playing because he wants to win. He'll be a third line center on the team, and will likely play on a line with Jiri Hudler and Dan Cleary. Still, that gives the Wings a ton of depth at forward. With the additions of Modano and Hudler this year (and hopefully the health of Franzen), the Red Wings have managed to considerably improve their offense from the last season whereas most teams in the Western Conference have taken a hit in their talent.
Also, Modano is arguably the greatest American born hockey player and the classiest. It's a great move for him to join the most successful American hockey team, who just also happen to be his hometown team. His cap hit is also quite manageable at 1.75 million, with only a 1.25 million base salary.
With the addition of Modano (and Hudler), the Wings once again are one of if not the team to beat in the West. It should be a great season for Detroit fans.
Modano is 40 years old, and obviously isn't the superstar that he once was. However, this is till a rock solid moves for the Red Wings.
At 40, Modano is only playing because he wants to win. He'll be a third line center on the team, and will likely play on a line with Jiri Hudler and Dan Cleary. Still, that gives the Wings a ton of depth at forward. With the additions of Modano and Hudler this year (and hopefully the health of Franzen), the Red Wings have managed to considerably improve their offense from the last season whereas most teams in the Western Conference have taken a hit in their talent.
Also, Modano is arguably the greatest American born hockey player and the classiest. It's a great move for him to join the most successful American hockey team, who just also happen to be his hometown team. His cap hit is also quite manageable at 1.75 million, with only a 1.25 million base salary.
With the addition of Modano (and Hudler), the Wings once again are one of if not the team to beat in the West. It should be a great season for Detroit fans.
Yes, Another New Hockey Blog
Yes, I have decided to once again move my blog where I cover hockey. I've moved from the Wordpress blog I had before to this new service by Google because I like some of the things that this service can do. My first real blog about hockey will be coming tonight!
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