Tuesday, November 18, 2014

What's the Deal with Tomas Jurco?

Tomas Jurco was one of several young players last year who helped to get the Detroit Red Wings into the playoffs. However, this year he's struggled mightily being a healthy scratch and only registering two assists while playing fourteen games. Thus, I'm a little confused about why he hasn't been sent down yet. So let's break this down:

Reasons to Send Jurco Down


  • He's waiver exempt, which means there's no risk of losing him by sending him down
  • He has two points in fourteen games, has been a healthy scratch, and has yet to score a goal
  • Last year he posted great numbers while in the AHL, so it could likely boost his confidence
  • The Griffins are on a three game winning streak, but their record still isn't great and they would likely welcome the help
  • He could play with super prospect Anthony Mantha
  • Grand Rapids coach Jeff Blashill helped Jurco adapt to the pro game
  • It would open up a playing spot for Andrej Nestrasil, who has been a healthy scratch but does require waivers to be sent down
Reasons to Keep Jurco Up



  • His possession stats seem solid
  • Mike Babcock is regarded as one of the best systems coaches in the game
  • He can spend time around veteran players such as Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Franzen

Looking at this, I really think he should be sent down for a little bit. It's unlike Holland to keep a young player on the roster when he could be developing more and isn't contributing - his M.O. has been his loyalty to veteran players. He could also swap Jurco with Teemu Pulkkinen, who has been lighting it up for Grand Rapids and is a right-handed shot - something that has been eluding the Red Wings. 




Wednesday, October 8, 2014

2014/2015 Predictions

Just my predictions for standings at the end of the season. An asterisk denotes playoffs. And here we go:


Atlantic Division

1) Tampa Bay Lightning*
2) Detroit Red Wings*
3) Boston Bruins*
4) Montreal Canadiens*
5) Florida Panthers
6) Ottawa Senators
7) Toronto Maple Leafs
8) Buffalo Sabres

Metropolitan Division

1) Pittsburgh Penguins*
2) Washington Capitals*
3) New York Rangers*
4) New York Islanders*
5) New Jersey Devils
6) Columbus Blue Jackets
7) Philadelphia Flyers
8) Carolina Hurricanes

Central Division

1) St. Louis Blues*
2) Chicago Blackhawks*
3) Minnesota Wild*
4) Dallas Stars*
5) Colorado Avalanche
6) Nashville Predators
7) Winnipeg Jets

Pacific Division

1) San Jose Sharks*
2) Los Angeles Kings*
3) Anaheim Ducks*
4) Vancouver Canucks*
5) Edmonton Oilers
6) Arizona Coyotes
7) Calgary Flames

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Analyze This: Righties vs. Lefties




The summer/year of analytics. I dig that.

For those who don't know, most advanced stats track how good a hockey player is at maintaining possession of the puck and generating shots on goal for himself or his team mates while on the ice. Others look at shooting and save percentages that are unsustainable (Gustav Nyquist last year), the quality of players a player faces during his shifts, and what zone of the ice a player starts his shift in.

It's all useful stuff that a lot of people who work in or cover the NHL initially seemed opposed to accepting as being anything more than junk.

Really, as a teacher, I think it was just not presented in enough different ways for everyone to see it for what it was: useful information when judging a player's performance.

I've personally used advanced stats to help my fantasy hockey teams the past several years, and have had a lot of success doing so.

However, one thing that there isn't a lot of information on is how a player/team is affected by having a player play his "off position". By "off position", I'm referring to a player who shoots left and is playing right wing or right defense. I'm not sure that this will ever be something that can be measured, but I would be very interested to see attempts to do so.

Personally, I feel as if it has a negative impact, but more so on defense. This would then be a problem for the Detroit Red Wings, who are once again going into the season with seven defensemen signed to NHL contracts who are all left-handed shooters. In fact, unless Daniel Alfredsson returns, the only player on the team that currently shoots right is fourth-line-center-at-best Luke Glendening.

I'm not sure how one would even go about trying to evaluate having a player playing his off position versus his regular position, but I really wish someone who knows a lot more about evaluating players with statistics would give it a stab. My eye test tells me that there is a disadvantage though.

Back in the Saddle Again

If anyone is still reading this blog, I thank you greatly. Every now and then, I get the inkling to become an active hockey blogger again. This time, it's a little bit different.

Those who know me personally probably know that I'm a school teacher currently looking for work as I have recently moved from the Detroit metro area to what I suppose would be the Muskegon metro area - the city of Norton Shores. Those people also may know that I spent last summer working on a lifelong goal: writing the first novel in a series. This summer, I've taken a step back and am working on a separate novel that could act as a sort of quasi-prequel for that series.

Anyway, long story short, I plan on both getting back to blogging about hockey and on starting a blog on writing. I'm still deciding on the name for that blog, but when I do I'll link to it here.

In the mean time, let's talk about hockey. A post will be coming later today.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Ken Holland: A Closer Look (2011 Offseason)

I absolutely have not found the energy to write on this blog during this hockey season, but one idea for a blog that I've had for some time is looking at how Ken Holland has managed the Detroit Red Wings in the post Lidstrom era. The trading of Calle Jarnkrok for David Legwand this past trade deadline coupled with Legwand's current demotion to the third line (losing his spot to Helm and Sheahan) with Jarnkrok's quick NHL success has kicked me into writing mode though.

As opposed to making this a novel, I'm going to write these as a series of posts. This one will be on the 2011 offseason.

Before I get started, I want to say that it's widely acknowledged that Ken Holland is one of the best GMs in the game. I can only think of a few people who have been critical of him (Ryan Lambert, Greg Brady, the Winging It In Motown blog at times). However, I really think that there's been some major mismanagement of the Detroit Red Wings in the post Lidstrom era.

For me, this era starts with the somewhat surprising early retirement of Brian Rafalski in the spring of 2011. His retirement resulted in the loss of a top four defenseman, and a right-handed puck mover. It was also easy to see that Lidstrom's years were limited at that point (in fact, it was unknown for a while if he would retire that same summer). It was also known that Brad Stuart was on the last year of his contract going into 2011/2012. Needless to say, the Wings were facing uncertain times.

Ken Holland didn't make a big trade at the draft to replace Rafalski, where Brent Burns was traded. That was fine, as the Wings didn't really have the assets to make a blockbuster trade. However, he did miss out on acquiring the rights to Christian Ehrhoff, a defenseman whom the Wings were linked to this past (2014) trade deadline. Ehrhoff is a left shooting D, but he would have easily filled the void created by Rafalski's departure. Instead, Holland decided to see what he had in Ericsson, Kindl, and Smith while pursuing cheaper and lesser defensemen. All three of the previously mentioned players were worth giving more of an opportunity to at that point, though obviously Kindl and Smith have turned out to be quite disappointing. He re-upped Ericsson with what was at the time a controversial contract, but one that looks fine now as Ericsson has developed into a solid top four penalty killing defenseman. Holland did sign two defenseman during the free agent frenzy - Mike Commodore and Ian White. Commodore was an absolute disaster, which was predictable. He had previously had issues with coach Mike Babcock and those issues didn't go away when he joined the Red Wings. Still, Commodore was signed on a cheap one year contract. Ian White meanwhile took Rafalski's spot in the lineup, was a right-handed shot, and was quite serviceable his first year with the Wings.

It's also worth noting that Holland made a tiny little trade at the draft, where he traded Detroit's first round pick for two second round picks from Ottawa. He then used those picks to select Tomas Jurco and Xavier Ouellet - both of whom look to have bright futures at this point (with Jurco currently playing comfortably as a top six forward in the NHL).

All things considered, I'd say the 2011 summer was a solid offseason for Ken Holland, with the ill advised signing of Commodore being but a small blemish.