The trade deadline came and went and the only move the Detroit Red Wings made was making the signing of college goaltender Jared Coreau official. Not really news, as this was reported a while ago and was more or less a technicality.
Overall, I'm not surprised. There were only two moves that I wanted to see the Wings make:
1) Trading for Jay Bouwmeester who I think is a legit top two defender.
2) Trading away Ian White
So, why didn't these two things happen? Let's take a look:
Jay Bouwmeester
The trade for Bouwmeester didn't happen because the Wings didn't want to trade a first round pick. That's understandable since last year they traded their pick for Kyle Quincey, which has so far been a major bust. In the salary cap era, it's essential to have contributions from young players on small contracts. The problem? The Wings simply aren't good with first round picks. Since 2005, Detroit's first round picks have been Jakub Kindl, Brendan Smith, Thomas McCollum, and Riley Sheahan. Now, that's a small sample size since Detroit always trades away their first round picks. But of that group, only Smith looks worthy of being a first round pick. The jury is still out on Sheahan, but I'd be stunned if he becomes anything more than a 3rd line center in the NHL. But, if the Wings want that pick, fine by me. I like Bouwmeester's game for a puck possession team, but finding a top right-handed defender would be much more ideal if that can happen as the Wings retool.
Ian White
The Wings have 9 defensemen: Kronwall, Ericsson, Colaiacovo, Quincey, Smith, Kindl, White, DeKeyser, and Lashoff. Among those players, only Ian White shoots right. That's crazy. That alone may be why Ken Holland kept White around instead of flipping him for a late pick.
When everybody is healthy, I'm not sure there's a roster spot for White. The kids (Smith, Lashoff, DeKeyser) can't improve if they don't play. Kronwall and Ericsson are locks to play. I'm sure Colaiacovo will be good enough to warrant playing. I'm not sure where White slots in, but apparently Holland sees him as more valuable on the team than flipped.
I'm also assuming he could have at least gotten a 5th round pick for the guy, but maybe there was no market.
The Bottom Line
Unless the Wings draw Minnesota or Anaheim in the first round, they're likely not winning a playoff series this spring. Thus, they're in a state of flux. They're retooling. They need to add youth. Holland valued his first round pick more than Jay Bouwmeester. In the end, I'm okay with that as long as they stick to the plan - which means some roster turnover this summer as the Wings have too many veteran bodies on the team to retool with you. But that's another blog for another time.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Monday, April 1, 2013
Why Detroit Should Acquire Jay Bouwmeester
The NHL trade deadline is Wednesday, April 3rd at 3 o'clock.
The Calgary Flames are in a selling mode after trading Jarome Iginla to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Various reports have quoted Jay Bouwmeester as having discussions with management about possibly being trades (he's got a no trade clause).
Meanwhile, Bob McKenzie has reported that the Wings continue to chase J-Bo. As they should.
Why? Well, right now Detroit has 9 defensemen. That's crazy. However, besides Kronwall (who's struggled defensively this season), none are top pairing guys. Ericsson, Colaiacovo (if he can stay healthy), Quincey, and White are all guys best suited for the second or third pairing and not matching up against a team's best line. Smith, Lashoff, and DeKeyser are all developing players who shouldn't have top four minutes at this point. And none project to be top pairing guys - good second pairing guys instead. Kindl is a bit of an enigma. Before this season, I'd have said he's a 6/7 guy. However he's played well this year and might be a 4/5 guy and a second pairing player.
So, let's go back to J-Bo. Nope, he's absolutely positively not a replacement for Nick Lidstrom. No, he's not the equivalent of Ryan Suter who the Wings pursued hard this summer and who in my mind should win the Norris this year. But, J-Bo is a very legitimate top-pairing shut-down defender.
If you take a look and understand the stats at behindthenet.ca, it's easy to see that Jay Bouwmeester faces top competition every night. He also starts in the defensive zone 59.4% of the time and finishes in it only 50.9% of the time. That means he's a terrific possession player and succeeds at getting the puck out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone. Also if you read this fantastic article by Steve Burtch of Pension Plan Puppets, you'll see that Bouwmeester is among the top forty in the NHL among defensemen at limiting shots. The Wings currently don't have any of the top forty players. Check out the spreadsheet he assembled if those kinds of advanced stats interest you.
Now, Bouwmeester won't provide a ton of offense. But Kronwall, his likely partner if the trade is made, does. And Smith should continue to develop offensively. The bottom line is the guy is a top pairing defender, much less the top four guy that Ken Holland has said he'll look for this deadline.
What do the Wings give up for him? Well, in the above article it's stated it won't be this year's first round pick. That's probably hard for Calgary to swallow. But, per Roger Millions (Calgary beat writer) the Flames would likely want a D. Well, Detroit has plenty of those.
So, which D? Well, let's assume Kronwall, Lashoff, Smith, and DeKeyser are untouchables. Colaiacovo has played two games this year... nobody is taking him. Quincey is injured though he's scheduled to return Thursday. Holland won't move Ericsson, and he's got a limited no-trade clause anyway. Ian White is a UFA and thus not anything more than a rental. So, that leaves Kindl.
Kindl's been a pleasant surprise this year, but hasn't found consistency and still isn't more than a second pairing, second power play unit guy. He's not enough.
The Wings would likely have to deal one of Nyquist or Tatar in this deal as well. That sucks, as those guys should be top six forwards for years to come. But Babcock refuses to use either correctly as he doesn't trust them defensively so they're not getting the minutes and quality linemates they need with the Wings. With Jarnkrok, Jurco, Frk, and Pulkkinen in the system, I'm okay with the Wings trading one of those guys for Bouwmeester.
Kindl and Nyquist/Tatar is a good package. We'd probably have to throw in a second round pick and maybe a third.
And hey, we could get those draft picks back by dealing Ian White as a rental... giving us 8 D. Just saying.
Anyway, that's where I'm at: 2nd, Kindl, Nyquist/Tatar, and a 3rd if necessary for Bouwmeester.
Sure, it'll create a cap problem, but I think that can be fixed easily enough this summer with trades and buyouts.
The Calgary Flames are in a selling mode after trading Jarome Iginla to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Various reports have quoted Jay Bouwmeester as having discussions with management about possibly being trades (he's got a no trade clause).
Meanwhile, Bob McKenzie has reported that the Wings continue to chase J-Bo. As they should.
Even tho STL added Leopold, my sense is Blues are still keen to add another D. STL and DET continue to chase CGY's Jay Bouwmeester.
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) April 1, 2013
Why? Well, right now Detroit has 9 defensemen. That's crazy. However, besides Kronwall (who's struggled defensively this season), none are top pairing guys. Ericsson, Colaiacovo (if he can stay healthy), Quincey, and White are all guys best suited for the second or third pairing and not matching up against a team's best line. Smith, Lashoff, and DeKeyser are all developing players who shouldn't have top four minutes at this point. And none project to be top pairing guys - good second pairing guys instead. Kindl is a bit of an enigma. Before this season, I'd have said he's a 6/7 guy. However he's played well this year and might be a 4/5 guy and a second pairing player.
So, let's go back to J-Bo. Nope, he's absolutely positively not a replacement for Nick Lidstrom. No, he's not the equivalent of Ryan Suter who the Wings pursued hard this summer and who in my mind should win the Norris this year. But, J-Bo is a very legitimate top-pairing shut-down defender.
If you take a look and understand the stats at behindthenet.ca, it's easy to see that Jay Bouwmeester faces top competition every night. He also starts in the defensive zone 59.4% of the time and finishes in it only 50.9% of the time. That means he's a terrific possession player and succeeds at getting the puck out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone. Also if you read this fantastic article by Steve Burtch of Pension Plan Puppets, you'll see that Bouwmeester is among the top forty in the NHL among defensemen at limiting shots. The Wings currently don't have any of the top forty players. Check out the spreadsheet he assembled if those kinds of advanced stats interest you.
Ok to anyone wanting to look at all 6 seasons of SDI data here's the link to the spreadsheet: dropbox.com/s/279fyv3jkqfu…
— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) April 1, 2013
Now, Bouwmeester won't provide a ton of offense. But Kronwall, his likely partner if the trade is made, does. And Smith should continue to develop offensively. The bottom line is the guy is a top pairing defender, much less the top four guy that Ken Holland has said he'll look for this deadline.
What do the Wings give up for him? Well, in the above article it's stated it won't be this year's first round pick. That's probably hard for Calgary to swallow. But, per Roger Millions (Calgary beat writer) the Flames would likely want a D. Well, Detroit has plenty of those.
#Wings would not have to. Yet, I believe #Flames would need a defenceman back from Detroit as part of any deal.
— Roger Millions (@RogMillions) April 1, 2013
So, which D? Well, let's assume Kronwall, Lashoff, Smith, and DeKeyser are untouchables. Colaiacovo has played two games this year... nobody is taking him. Quincey is injured though he's scheduled to return Thursday. Holland won't move Ericsson, and he's got a limited no-trade clause anyway. Ian White is a UFA and thus not anything more than a rental. So, that leaves Kindl.
Kindl's been a pleasant surprise this year, but hasn't found consistency and still isn't more than a second pairing, second power play unit guy. He's not enough.
The Wings would likely have to deal one of Nyquist or Tatar in this deal as well. That sucks, as those guys should be top six forwards for years to come. But Babcock refuses to use either correctly as he doesn't trust them defensively so they're not getting the minutes and quality linemates they need with the Wings. With Jarnkrok, Jurco, Frk, and Pulkkinen in the system, I'm okay with the Wings trading one of those guys for Bouwmeester.
Kindl and Nyquist/Tatar is a good package. We'd probably have to throw in a second round pick and maybe a third.
And hey, we could get those draft picks back by dealing Ian White as a rental... giving us 8 D. Just saying.
Anyway, that's where I'm at: 2nd, Kindl, Nyquist/Tatar, and a 3rd if necessary for Bouwmeester.
Sure, it'll create a cap problem, but I think that can be fixed easily enough this summer with trades and buyouts.
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