Some Different Speculation

The following are things I'm beginning to wonder about, or that I think may be smart for teams to do. As far as I can tell, none of these things are rumored to happen, they're just things that I've thought of based on other rumors. And... here... we... go:

Could Nashville Be the Big Winner July 1st?


Today, Andy Strickland reported that he's heard that Ryan Suter may be seeing if Nashville adds more pieces July 1st. Considering that Poile seems to hope/think that he'll be having discussions with Suter on July 1st, this could be possible. In the past, both Weber and Suter had made it clear that they wanted to see the management bring in players to show their commitment to winning, as Pierre LeBrun writes here.

So, let's assume Ryan Suter is indeed waiting to see what Nashville does in terms of adding talent. Shea Weber, though an RFA, could be in the same boat. Heck, even Hal Gill might be doing the same. The problem is, that's a serious chunk of money waiting to see who's added. Let's go ahead and overestimate that those three players could together bring about $20 million in cap hit.

Per CapGeek, that would only put the team at about $52 million with a $70 million cap. Re-signing restricted  free agents Sergei Kostitsyn and Colin Wilson could put the team at about $58 million with 17 players signed. The likes of Jack Hillen, Bradon Yip, Brian McGrattan, and whoever ends up being the backup goalie will come cheaply and will likely put them at somewhere like $62 million for 21 players. That should be just enough money to afford the cap hit for Zach Parise.

Think about it, Parise wants to win. If New Jersey can't afford him, he'll likely look for a winning team and stability. As long as Suter and Weber are in the fold, Nashville makes plenty of sense. And for Nashville, Parise is the goal scorer they were hoping they were getting when Radulov came back. Plus, there's been rumors, albeit baseless that they seem, that Suter and Parise would enjoy playing together.

It's a total long shot and I haven't heard a single rumor about it, but it would be interesting and shocking if it happened.

Pavelec and Columbus a Match?


Here's a move that I think could make sense. Columbus plans on trading Rick Nash for a bounty, and needs a starting goaltender. TSN's Darren Dreger touches on this here. Now, apparently Winnipeg goaltender Ondrej Pavelec is seeking north of $4 million per year or will leave for the KHL. Commentary on that can be seen here. I don't see Winnipeg paying Pavelec, who has been inconsistent at best, that much. But, I wonder if Columbus would.

I think any trade would see Columbus sending much-maligned goalie Steve Mason to Winnipeg. Mason has been awful the past few years, but only has a year left on his contract and may need a second chance playing behind a decent defense. Does Winnipeg have a decent defense? With the likes of Bogosian, Enstrom, Stuart, Byfuglien, Hainsey, Clitsome and Postma they should be decent. And Columbus looks like they'll have enough prospects to send one or two the way of Winnipeg. This is important because in my mind Winnipeg doesn't have too many high end prospects: Cormier, Scheifele, Postma, Machachek, and Klingberg are the only ones I see playing in the NHL. I really think there could be a deal to be made between these two teams.

What is Ken Holland's Plan B?

Let's all assume that the Detroit Red Wings plan to sign both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter on July 1st. This will be to replace Nick Lidstrom and to upgrade the top-6 forwards, giving Pavel Datsyuk a legitimate scoring winger. Both, in my mind, are legitimate needs if the Wings want to continue to challenge for the Cup in the post-Lidstrom era.

Ryan Suter looks like he'll hit the open market, but will still consider returning to Nashville, while Parise apparently wants to go back to New Jersey where he just came within two games of winning the Stanley Cup.

Even if both hit the open market, there's really no guarantee that Detroit will be able to sign either. Almost every team in the league is expected to express interest in one of the players, and some will likely offer more money than the Wings. So, what is Ken Holland's backup plan?

No matter what, he has to add a top defender. Other notable UFAs include Dennis Wideman, Matt Carle, Justin Schultz (a rookie who isn't expected to choose the Wings), and not much else. Matt Carle is expected to re-sign with Philadelphia, and Wideman doesn't inspire much confidence. Sadly, I think Wideman is the only realistic option if Detroit doesn't get Suter.

As for a top forward, the likely candidate if Detroit misses out on Parise will be Alexander Semin. He's scored 40 goals in the NHL before, but his work ethic doesn't really match with Detroit. Other options could include Shane Doan and Ryan Smyth, but both are short term fixes at best.

As for trades, Ken Holland simply doesn't trade roster players and isn't a position to trade top picks or prospects. The Wings currently need their prospects. So, I'd be stunned to see the likes of Rick Nash come to Detroit.

The bottom line is that Detroit needs Suter and Parise in the worst way. The question is whether they will choose to be sign up to be Detroit's missing pieces.

Why New Jersey Kept Their Pick

With an exciting playoff run coming to an even more exciting end for the Los Angeles Kings, the silly season has officially begun in the NHL. For those unaware, the silly season refers to three events in the NHL: the trading deadline, the week leading up to the NHL draft when teams often make lots of trades (next week), and first day when unrestricted free agents (UFAs) can sign with any team of their desire - July 1st.

It's been a while since I've blogged, but I'll probably be blogging pretty regularly the next three weeks as my schedule is lighter than it has been in years as I continue searching for a teaching job.

Anyway, this blog is going to focus on the New Jersey Devils and why they decided to keep their first round pick this year.

Here's a quick background:

• New Jersey singed Ilja Kovalchuk to a ridiculous contract two summers ago that the NHL ruled was illegal. They then penalized the Devils and said they had to forfeit one of their first round picks in the next four years. 

• Last year they were 4th overall, and obviously chose to keep their pick.

• This year, being the loser in the Cup Finals, they have the 29th (out of 30) pick overall. Thus, most anticipated they would give it up. 

• But... they didn't.

So why didn't they? Well, in the previously linked blog the reporter, Tom Gulitti, says that he spoke with Devil's GM Lou Lamoriello earlier in the day, so it's not like he forgot to notify the NHL. In my mind, there's only two reasons that make any sense as to why New Jersey would keep this pick. They are as follows:

1. The Devils plan on using the pick to select a goaltender of the future - possibly Malcom Subban who most mock drafts having going right around where New Jersey will be picking. The Devils would do this as future-Hall-of-Fame Martin Brodeur likely has only a year or two left before he'll retire leaving a major hole for the Devils. 
2. The plan on using the pick to trade for a young goaltender - maybe Jonathan Bernier of the LA Kings. Doing this would allow the team to have Brodeur mentor the young goalie for a year or two before giving the keys to the net tot that goalie.

The bottom line is that New Jersey desperately needs a plan for when Marty decides to retire, and dealing with this issue is the only reason why I would see the team holding on to this year's pick. Of course some people may think it's just Lamoriello being stubborn, which while possible, he's proven to be a smart and calculated GM in his time and this would be a very bad move as they may never have as low of a draft pick in the next two years. 

It'll be interesting to see how they choose to use the pick.