Wild West Preview

Thanks to the salary cap and the parity in the NHL, it is very difficult to predict the standings before the season starts. In fact, the standings are predominantly affected by what teams suffer injuries and what teams can remain healthy. Last year St. Louis, Colorado, and Pittsburgh all had to deal with a plethora of major injuries that likely prevented the teams from finishing as high as they could have. So, it's almost a crap shoot, but still, predicting where teams will end up is fun if only to see how off you are by the end of the season. So here I go:

1. Vancouver Canucks: The still have a very deep (if injured) team, a world class goalie, and play in the weakest division in the league. I think they should finish number one in the West again this year. 

2. San Jose Sharks: I like the acquisitions of Burns and Havlat quite a bit, though both players have spotty health histories. I don't see Burns and Boyle being able to run the same power play because they are both rover defenders, but that should just give the Sharks two deadly power play units. In short, the Sharks should still be able to take their division and second in the West.

3. Detroit Red Wings: This one is interesting. I think the Red Wings still have a potent and deep offense and could possibly have better defense and goaltending during the regular season. However if the loss of Rafalski handicaps the offense and if Howard doesn't play like two years ago and like in the playoffs last year, the Wings likely won't win the division. All things considered though, I'll take them ahead of Chicago.

4. Chicago Blackhawks: The Stanley Cup hangover is gone and most experts and fans believe this is a deeper team and last year's incarnation. I'm not sold that the additions of Brunette, Olesz, Montador, and Mayers make this team that much better - especially with the loss of Campbell or that Crawford won't have a sophomore slump, but I believe this team was a lot better than their eighth place finish last year and should have home ice advantage in the first round this year. 

5. Los Angeles Kings: Mike Richards gives this team the much needed 1-2 punch of star centers. Vancouver (H. Sedin - Kesler), San Jose (Thornton - Couture/Pavelski/Marleau), Detroit (Datsyuk - Zetterberg), and Chicago (Toews - Sharp) have discovered this as being a key to being among the elite in the West. However, I still question some of the supporting wingers and until the team signs Drew Doughty I don't see them finishing in the top four in the West.

6. St. Louis Blues: The Blues were absolutely hammered by injuries last year, which I don't think will happen again. The defense is still young and Halak still has to prove he can carry the load as a starter, but I think this team is too deep and talented not to make the playoffs this year. 

7. Nashville Predators: The Predators are really hoping that young players like Wilson, Kostitsyn, O'Reilly, Geoffrion, Smith, and Bergfors can create three scoring lines - though none would be a first line on most other teams. Still they have a strong defensive corps (look for Weber to challenge for the Norris again and Blum to challenge for the Calder) and a top-five goaltender in Rinne. Mixed with excellent coaching and a forward group strong on the defensive side of the puck and I think the Preds will find their way into the postseason again.

8. Colorado Avalanche: Another team that was hammered by injuries last year, I think the Avs have a great chance to get back into the postseason. Their offense is anchored by star centers Matt Duchene and Paul Stastny and will be able to score. Their defense is better than last year, and leaps and bounds better than the corps in both Minnesota and Edmonton. Their goaltending is injury-prone and unproven over a full season, but talented. Overall I think the weakness of the division will see the Avalanche back in the postseason. 

9. Anaheim Ducks: This team has the best line in hockey, an elite goalie if Jonas Hiller is full recovered from vertigo, and a lot of offense from their blue line. However the offensive depth is paper thin, and the defense, while a solid group on paper, isn't good at preventing scoring chances. This is a bubble team that could make the playoffs from their star power alone, but in the super competitive West I don't think they will again this year. 

10. Columbus Blue Jackets: With the additions of Carter, Wisniewski, Prospal and the potential of rookie Ryan Johansen making the team and making an impact this is probably the best team Columbus has ever iced. However the defense and goaltending are still thin, Steve Mason simply hasn't been good the past two years, and Wisniewski is already suspended. I would like to see this team make the playoffs and think they could, but once again they fall victim to the depth of the Western Conference. 

11. Calgary Flames: Essentially the same team as last year, and I'm expecting similar results. A veteran squad that just doesn't have what it takes to be a threat in the West. If Iginla's injury keeps him out of action,  I could see the Flames being a lottery team. 

12. Phoenix Coyotes: It's hard to bet against coach Dave Tippett, but after losing Bryzgalov and with a forward group that is either aging (Doan, Whitney, Langkow, Vrbata) or young and unproven (Boedker, McLean, the unsigned Turris) I don't see this team making the playoffs. Tippett should prevent them from being a bottom-dweller though.

13. Minnesota Wild: The Wild now have an absolutely lethal first line (Setoguchi - Koivu - Heatley) and not much else. Bouchard and Latendresse could be good second line wingers, but neither has shown an ability to remain healthy. They are thin at center and ridiculously thin and young on the blue line without any true workhorse or number one guy. Backstrom used to be a great goaltender in a defensive system, but now is just an above-average goaltender. The youth and future looks bright in Minnesota, but I feel as if this team would be best served with a top pick and grabbing a top-flight defender. 

14. Edmonton Oilers: The offense could be deep and explosive but also likely will be inconsistent due to its youth. The defense is terrible on paper and worse if Whitney can't make a healthy return. The goaltending is among the weakest in the league. I just don't think the team can challenge this year.

15. Dallas Stars: This team could be competitive, but their offense took a major hit without Richards and Neal around. I don't think Ryder and a breakout from Benn can make up for that. Also, history shows that another healthy year for starter Kari Lehtonen is far from a given. The defense is decent, but thin when it comes to guys who can play well in their own zone. I think it's going to be a rough year in Dallas. 

15 Players Who Have Surprised

Here's fifteen players (well, one is a former player) who have surprised me this preseason:

1. Brett Bulmer. I wasn't 100% sure that this guy would ever play in the NHL before this training camp. Now it looks like he'll be on the opening night roster for the Minnesota Wild (partially thanks to Staubitz getting suspended). I don't know much about his game, but apparently he gets under the skin of his opponents and has some decent hands around the net.
2. Jaromir Jagr. He's 39 and hasn't played in the NHL in years, but he's shown he'll at the very least be a force on the power play for Philadelphia. 
3. Evgeni Malkin. It's only preseason, but Geno looks poised to return to superstardom. 
4. Mark Scheifele. I really had no idea who Scheifele was when Winnipeg drafted him 7th overall in June, but every time I've watched the Jets he's been the type of player who is capable of creating a scoring chance every time he gets the puck. I feel as if he'll at least get a nine game look with the Jets this year.
5. Sidney Crosby. After his first press conference about his concussion, it seemed as if it would be lucky if was back by the end of the season. Now he's practicing and scrimmaging and inching closer to contact. Love him or hate him, Crosby being healthy is great for the NHL and hockey. Even haters must admit that rivalries with the Penguins are more fun when he's on the ice.
6. Jake Gardiner. Toronto's prospect has been their best defenseman in the preseason. 
7. Matt Read. He wasn't on many people's radar this summer when Philly was making all of their moves, but he looks like he'll make the team. 
8. Matthew Lombardi. It now looks like Lombardi will be ready for the start of the season, making Nashville look terrible for trading him away with Franson for absolutely nothing. That was a brutal cap dumping move.
9. David Perron. Great to see that the young star will soon be able to practice with teammates. 
10. Peter Mueller. The fourth player on this list because of his recovery from a concussion (Crosby, Lombardi, Perron). Once again, great to see him getting healthy. 
11. Ryan Murphy. An offensive defenseman who slipped in the draft and looks poised in training camp, he could be this year's Cam Fowler.
12. Paul Postma. Winnepeg's prospect has looked good so far. I don't think he'll make the team with Enstrom, Byfuglien, and Bogosian already able to carry the offense from Winnipeg's backend. 
13. Fabian Brunnstrom. The former YouTube star faded away last year, but has looked good in a try out with the Red Wings. 
14. Jared Spurgeon. Minnesota's small defenseman looks ready to help make up for the loss of Brent Burns's scoring from the blue line. 
15. Brendan Shanahan. The former NHL star and current NHL sheriff has released a video that has clearly explained each suspension he has given. This is terrific in helping people understand suspensions. He has also shown that he will suspend players for a lengthy period of time. 

Is Jeff Carter the Right Fit?

Yesterday, the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired Jeff Carter from the Philadelphia Flyers. The price was steep, but for a #1 center and one of the league's top goal scorers it was fair in my opinion.

However, after hearing some comments, I'm left wondering whether Jeff Carter is the right fit for the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Apart from some of the rumors and gossip that have surrounded Carter the past couple of years, and the fact that Carter is so disappointed and shocked that he hasn't spoken to Columbus yet, I'm also just not sure that he's the right fit from a hockey perspective.

The reason the Blue Jackets acquired Carter was because Rick Nash needs a #1 center. It's already been stated that Carter is likely to play with Nash. However, I see this as a problem because both Nash and Carter are among the league's elite snipers. This past year, Carter was third and Nash was sixth in the league in most shots on goal as can be found here. It's difficult to fathom two players who are so prone to shoot the puck having good chemistry together. So if they play together, one will have to start thinking about passing as opposed to shooting, which isn't the strength of either player. In the super competitive Central Division, I just don't think it's going to work out well.

However, if coach Scott Arniel is smart he'll end up splitting up Rick Nash and Jeff Carter. For all the talk of Nash needing a better center, he's still been able to score 30+ goals four the past five seasons. Likewise, Carter has scored 33+ goals in each of the past three seasons. Columbus has other solid top-6 forwards at their disposal in Brassard, Umberger, Huselies, and Vermette. They could also possibly sign Scottie Upshall before he becomes a free agent giving them another possible top-6 forward. So it would seem possible to construct two scoring lines, one for each of their star goal scorers. And it would still help Nash as his line would no longer be the only line that rival teams are looking to shutdown.

So, in the long run I think Jeff Carter can be successful in Columbus, but I would think the way to do it would be not playing with Rich Nash.

Oh, and Columbus needs a puck-moving defenseman to get him the puck in the first place.

The Winds of Change in Philly

I like the Philadelphia Flyers a lot more after today's trades than I did before. However, their makeup is still confusing at best.

I don't think too many hockey fans were surprised to see Jeff Carter get traded. While he's an elite scorer, the Flyers enjoyed success in the playoffs without his services due to injuries and when he was playing in the playoffs he was largely invisible. Philadelphia also got a good return for him in Jakub Voracek, the 8th overall pick, and a third round pick. Thus the Flyers were able to increase their cap room by about $3 million (I'm assuming Voracek - a restricted free agent - will sign a deal for a shade over $2 million), add a good young winger who could play anywhere from the first to third line, and add two picks to help add to the team's shallow group of prospects. Even though they lost one of the league's top goal-scorers, it's hard to argue that this wasn't a good trade for Philadelphia - I'm not so sure for Columbus, but I'll blog about that later.

The Mike Richards trade was much more stunning as he was the team's captain and a star two-way center who many fans of the Flyers like to think of as some kind of second-coming of Bobby Clarke (which, of course he's not). This move definitely changes the identity of the team. In return the team acquired Wayne "The Pain Train" Simmonds whom will quickly become a Philly fan favorite, a terrific prospect/young player in Brayden Schenn, and a second-round pick. In the long run I think this will be a great trade for both teams, as it had become painfully obvious that Richards was struggling as Philadelphia's captain. He struggled at dealing with the media and wasn't able to really communicate with his coach or general manager. A trade to a market with less pressure on the hockey team may very well be in his best interests.

Then the Flyers finished the day by signing Ilya Bryzgalov to a mega 9-year contract. This is where things get confusing for me.

Clearly the Flyers are trying to win now while also add to the future. And while different, the current group of Flyers can definitely contend for a Cup. To be honest, they're still one of the deepest teams in the league. Their top-5 defenseman are deeper than any when healthy, and their top-9 forwards will be strong.

The part that confuses me is Bryzgalov. Yes, he's a darn good goalie. Two years ago he was nominated for the Vezina Trophy as the league's best goaltender. However, he's been lit up by the Detroit Red Wings the past two years in the playoffs. Just follow this link and scroll down to his playoff statistics. And then think about how fans feel about Roberto Luongo right now - who would get lit up at times this postseason though he would slam the door at other times. Also, Bryzgalov has never played in a NHL market where there has been a lot of pressure. There's good, knowledgeable fans in Anaheim and Phoenix, but nothing like the rabid fan base of Philly - a market that is a true pressure cooker for goalies. And then it has to be considered that trading Richards and Carter was at least partially about helping the long-rumored locker room problems with the team and Bryzgalov has made plenty of comments that would make it seem as if he's not exactly the best guy in the locker room.

However, Bryzgalov is a number one goaltender, no questions asked. I just think Philadelphia may have better to wait and also talk with Tomas Vokoun on July 1st. Vokoun in my mind is every bit the goaltender that Bryzgalov is, and is much more of a team guy. I also feel as if he would have settled for a lower cap hit than Bryzgalov, which is important because the Flyers till have a lot of work to do. Ville Leino is an unrestricted free agent, newly acquired Voracek and Simmonds need new deals, and they probably would like to add a defenseman for the third pairing, which will all be tough with roughly $7.5 million left to spend until they hit the cap.

In the end the Flyers are a different team. And in my mind, a team both better prepared for the present and the future.

The legions of Flyers fans who are now staring at their Mike Richards and Jeff Carter jerseys and shirts need to keep that in mind.

Still, I'll be watching Bryzgalov closely - particularly come playoff time. And so will a heck of a lot of other people. Here's hoping he's up to it.

Jaromir Jagr: A Fit for Detroit?

Most hockey fans are well aware of 39-year-old Jaromir Jagr's impending NHL comeback, which is apparently between Detroit and Pittsburgh and possibly others depending on who you follow. As a Red Wings fan, I've decided to take a look to see if there is a fit with Detroit.

First off, it truly is impossible to determine just how Jagr would be in the NHL. He's never had the defensive acumen to be a third line forward, yet he may be unable to play top six minutes for a whole season as he's been playing in the KHL the past three seasons where the seasons are shorter, and the competition is less fierce. For argument's sake, I'll say he'll see time as a top six forward, at least to begin the year. He'll also likely sign for between $2 and $3 million.

Also, for Detroit, I'll assume that Patrick Eaves and one of either Drew Miller or Kris Draper will return. So let's look at the forwards without Jagr:

Franzen - Datsyuk - Holmstrom
Bertuzzi - Zetterberg - Cleary
Abdelkader - Filppula - Hudler
Mursak - Helm - Eaves

Draper/Miller - Emmerton

Well, looking at those lines there simply isn't any room for Jagr. However, I don't see the Wings being overly concerned with losing Cory Emmerton to waivers as he's never been able to really put his game together with Grand Rapids. However, there's no reason for any of the players I have penciled into lines to not be playing regularly.

So how would Jagr fit?

Well, only one way in my mind. And that way would be if the Wings do trade Jiri Hudler to Valtteri Filppula at the draft for a defenseman. I'm a proponent of trading Filppula for several reasons: he's got more value than Hudler, his cap hit is higher than Hudler's, he's a second line center when Datsyuk and Z play on the same line but last year I think proved that the two are better apart. Meanwhile, Helm should be getting experience as a third line center which he seems ready for, and Abdelkader has proven that he can play center.

So great, sign Jagr and trade Filppula for the defenseman we need after Rafalski's retirement. Unfortunately though, there just aren't any defensemen who could be had for Filppula who really jump out. Cam Barker (Minnesota), Nick Schultz (Minnesota), and Keith Ballard (Vancouver) could probably be had, but only because all three of those players have struggled recently. The idea of trading for a good young defender really has dried up with Atlanta moving to Winnipeg and the likelihood of Bogosian being an option back to zero (if it ever was a possibility to begin with).

So really in my mind there's nobody to trade Filppula (or Hudler) for. Of course there could be somebody available whom I have no idea about, but I doubt that player will be better than whichever UFA we'll end up with.

So, in short, I just don't see how Jagr fits with this team. And for the record, if the Wings sing a possible top six forward to a reasonable deal I would much rather see that forward be Tampa Bay's Simon Gagne than Mr. Jagr. Just my two cents though.

Trade Hits

I haven't written in this blog since school started... student teaching has kept me relatively busy. However, in lieu of all of the trades that have been happening around the league, I'll be taking a look at some of the teams that have made moves.

Anaheim: 

The Ducks have been one of the busier teams this season in terms of trades. First they acquired Maxim Lapierre for Brett Festerling and a 5th-round pick. I liked this move for Anaheim, as it added some depth to their third and fourth lines and Lapierre has proven to be a useful depth player. Likewise, the Ducks would later acquire Jarkko Ruutu from the Ottawa Senators for a 6th-round pick. While I'm not as big on Ruutu as he can often be a dirty player, this is another solid depth move for the Ducks and shows that the team is thinking playoffs as that is when having quality players such as Lapierre and Ruutu on your third or fourth lines begin to matter more.

The big trade that the Ducks made was trading Joffrey Lupul and prospect Jake Gardiner for Francois Beauchemin. This move was made to help bolster Anaheim's weak defensive corps and while I thought that Anaheim slightly overpaid to bring in Beauchemin, the move should help the team down the stretch as they (and every other team in the West) try to make the playoffs. This trade made defenseman Paul Mara expendable as he was dealt to Montreal for a 5th-round pick.

It also shouldn't be forgotten that Anaheim signed Ray Emery to a two-year contract. It remains to be seen if Emery will be able to play in the NHL this year (he made 27 saves on 31 shots in his first start in the AHL last night), it is an attempt to add some depth at goaltending behind Jonas Hiller.

Apart from possibly moving Sheldon Brookbank who is also an extra defender, I'd be surprised to see the Ducks make another move. I think this is a team that will battle for a playoff spot right up until the last game and if the make the dance, could have a good chance at an upset.