The first week of any season is too early to make judgments, but after the lockout, it's never too early to make some hockey observations. So, here's 15:
1) Chicago has been good. Last year, there always seemed to be drama with this team. A lot of that drama has disappeared right away this season: Patrick Kane is playing like a superstar; Crawford is rebounding from a sophomore slump; the defense is clicking.
2) On that note, I don't plan on missing a Chicago/St. Louis game this year. Those games are going to be awesome.
3) Chicago may have surprised me; San Jose has stunned me. I really thought that San Jose was going to regress this year. They're a veteran team with several injuries to their defensive corps. However, they've been phenomenal. Unless LA quickly turns it around, I think a hot start like San Jose's may lead them to winning their division even though I expect them to fall off.
4) I don't think Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Washington, or Vancouver should be panicking yet. On the other side, I don't expect Florida, Columbus, Calgary, Toronto, or even Phoenix to be in the playoff hunt come April.
5) Columbus and Calgary are obvious with obvious issues. Toronto should be too, with a youth movement going on and the team's young and inexperienced players (Kadri, Scrivens, Gardiner, Kostka, Reimer, Frattin, van Riemsdyk) learning how to win at the NHL level. However, Florida and Phoenix both won their divisions last year.
6) I feel as if Florida were the benefactors of good luck last year. Their division was weak, and their goaltenders performed better than should be expected. This is an organization very much in a continuing rebuild, and another top pick to go with the likes of Huberdeau, Gudbranson, Markstrom, etc. shouldn't be seen as a negative.
7) Phoenix is a different beast however. They were no fluke last year, having made the playoffs three years straight. Then they marched into the third round of the playoffs. Mike Smith played over his head last year, but his numbers should still be solid this year with Tippett's system. I don't see Phoenix having a terrible season either, but with Dallas and Anaheim likely being better this year I just don't see them overcoming a slow start to make the playoffs.
8) It's been rumored in the past, but Phoenix would do well to put top defender Keith Yandle on the trade market. A bare minimum of Philadelphia, Detroit, Ottawa, and Los Angeles are known to be looking to add to their defense. Teams like St. Louis, Minnesota, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Nashville, and Dallas could be inclined to do so as well. Phoenix has a lot of good defensemen in their organization, and moving Yandle could easily net them a top six forward that they need.
9) Toronto, Calgary, and Columbus could stand to benefit in the trade market as well. Toronto and Columbus are both deepest on the blue line, while a losing season could see Calgary move Jay Bouwmeester who Philadelphia, Detroit, and St. Louis have been rumored to have interest in in the past.
10) After the lockout, the holdouts of PK Subban, Jamie Benn, and Ryan O'Reilly bother me. Dallas did well to lock up Benn, but Subban and O'Reilly remain without a contract. Both were key players for their teams last year, and bitter fans can't be happy to see that neither guy is playing for their teams or being used to bring in a player who can via trade.
11) Minnesota's power play overall has looked very impressive to me. However, the rest of their play has not. Only their first line is generating any kind of offense, and Brodin and Scandella should be a third pairing at this stage instead of a second pairing. With plenty of forwards in the AHL knocking on the door (Zucker, Palmieri, Coyle, Larsson, Fontaine), I'm expecting this team could be active.
12) Detroit and Nashville are going to be in tough this year. They're clearly a step behind St. Louis and Chicago in the division, and how many times can four teams from the same division make the playoffs?
13) I still hold that Ilya Bryzgalov has not been the problem for Philadelphia this season. In my mind, he's had one bad game and has kept the team in every other game he's played. They need help on their blue line, not in goal.
14) Top rookies from the first week: Tarasenko (STL), Schultz (EDM), Conacher (TBL). Mikael Granlund needs to really step up his game, and it's a shame that Brunner is too old to be a rookie.
15) While some teams look like they are in need of moves, I don't really expect to see trades until at least the third week.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Monday, January 21, 2013
15 Thoughts from Opening Weekend
1) Pittsburgh made a statement by opening up on the road and beating rivals Philadelphia and New York. I've been of the mind that either Pittsburgh or New York will come out of the East and win the cup this year, and while it's just the first two games; every point counts and finishing first in the division will benefit whoever gets it.
2) I knew St. Louis was going to be good, but I wasn't prepared for Chicago to come out flying the way they have. St. Louis/Chicago games could be really fun to watch this year.
3) I don't think there's a better story in the NHL right now than Minnesota Wild backup goaltender, Josh Harding. He was diagnosed with MS this fall, and posts a shutout in his first game since the diagnosis. I'm really rooting for this guy.
4) Mikael Granlund (despite a goal) and Justin Schultz did not look nearly as good right off the bat as other rookies like Tarasenko and Huberdeau. I still say both will end up being candidates for rookie of the year.
5) Vancouver needs to trade Roberto Luongo. The situation will quickly turn toxic with the media and the fans, as proven this weekend. The time to trade him is now, as Vancouver needs help at forward. I wonder if they'll need to get creative and do something like a three-way trade in order for everyone to get fair value.
6) Detroit and Philadelphia are going to be looking for help at defense this season. While Minnesota has looked tremendous, I wouldn't be surprised to see them added to that list. I think Carolina will also need another top four D if they are serious about the playoffs.
7) Sven Baertschi of Calgary is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Calgary really needs to start building around a young core.
8) The three remaining RFAs - Benn, Subban, O'Reilly - are really missed by their respective teams. Based on what various reporters are saying, I'd expect Benn to sign by the weekend, but Subban and O'Reilly could hold out for a while which would really affect their teams in the standings.
9) For me, one of the key teams to watch this season will be Anaheim. It'll likely be Teemu Selanne's last year in the league. Getzlaf and Perry are UFAs this summer. Ryan has been in trade rumors for over a year. If this team doesn't do well, I could see a lot of big trades here. However, they could also really turn it around under coach Bruce Boudreau.
10) Things have so far worked pretty well for Minnesota and their big offseason additions. Buffalo looked good in their first game. Meanwhile, it's been mixed results for Dallas and Tampa and one poor result for Carolina. I think those five teams made the biggest changes this summer, so it'll be interesting to see how they fare this year, especially with the short training camp.
11) Tuukka Rask is primed to be a top goaltender for a long time, especially playing for the defensive juggernaut that is Boston. I'm glad I have him on both of my fantasy teams.
12) I'm interested to see what kind of identity Columbus develops this year. They also made a lot of changes, but have no expectations. This season will decide the direction they head in as an organization.
13) Only two shootouts in opening weekend. I really hope that shootouts are more rare this season.
14) It was a great start for a lot of veteran players like Jagr, Whitney, and Selanne. I'm interested to see if they can keep it up in the shortened season.
15) There was definitely some rust this weekend. I expect the games to be a lot faster by next weekend.
2) I knew St. Louis was going to be good, but I wasn't prepared for Chicago to come out flying the way they have. St. Louis/Chicago games could be really fun to watch this year.
3) I don't think there's a better story in the NHL right now than Minnesota Wild backup goaltender, Josh Harding. He was diagnosed with MS this fall, and posts a shutout in his first game since the diagnosis. I'm really rooting for this guy.
4) Mikael Granlund (despite a goal) and Justin Schultz did not look nearly as good right off the bat as other rookies like Tarasenko and Huberdeau. I still say both will end up being candidates for rookie of the year.
5) Vancouver needs to trade Roberto Luongo. The situation will quickly turn toxic with the media and the fans, as proven this weekend. The time to trade him is now, as Vancouver needs help at forward. I wonder if they'll need to get creative and do something like a three-way trade in order for everyone to get fair value.
6) Detroit and Philadelphia are going to be looking for help at defense this season. While Minnesota has looked tremendous, I wouldn't be surprised to see them added to that list. I think Carolina will also need another top four D if they are serious about the playoffs.
7) Sven Baertschi of Calgary is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Calgary really needs to start building around a young core.
8) The three remaining RFAs - Benn, Subban, O'Reilly - are really missed by their respective teams. Based on what various reporters are saying, I'd expect Benn to sign by the weekend, but Subban and O'Reilly could hold out for a while which would really affect their teams in the standings.
9) For me, one of the key teams to watch this season will be Anaheim. It'll likely be Teemu Selanne's last year in the league. Getzlaf and Perry are UFAs this summer. Ryan has been in trade rumors for over a year. If this team doesn't do well, I could see a lot of big trades here. However, they could also really turn it around under coach Bruce Boudreau.
10) Things have so far worked pretty well for Minnesota and their big offseason additions. Buffalo looked good in their first game. Meanwhile, it's been mixed results for Dallas and Tampa and one poor result for Carolina. I think those five teams made the biggest changes this summer, so it'll be interesting to see how they fare this year, especially with the short training camp.
11) Tuukka Rask is primed to be a top goaltender for a long time, especially playing for the defensive juggernaut that is Boston. I'm glad I have him on both of my fantasy teams.
12) I'm interested to see what kind of identity Columbus develops this year. They also made a lot of changes, but have no expectations. This season will decide the direction they head in as an organization.
13) Only two shootouts in opening weekend. I really hope that shootouts are more rare this season.
14) It was a great start for a lot of veteran players like Jagr, Whitney, and Selanne. I'm interested to see if they can keep it up in the shortened season.
15) There was definitely some rust this weekend. I expect the games to be a lot faster by next weekend.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Bryzgalov's Back - But Where's the D?
Everybody who follows hockey knows about the disaster that was Ilya Bryzgalov's season last year. He was creating all kinds of controversy and playing quite poorly. However, he turned it around in the last couple of months last season; and though the numbers don't agree, I'd argue he was as decent in the playoffs, showing flashes of brilliance and flashes of poor goaltending.
Bryzgalov was the story on the minds of most this year when thinking about how the Flyers would do this season. Well, that needs to change because after two games Bryzgalov has shown that he will be a fine goaltender. Maybe he won't steal as many games as he should at his price point, but it sure doesn't look like he's going to be the problem.
Instead, the Flyers are going to need to rethink their defensive corps. After Kimmo Timmonen, the team doesn't have a true puck mover on the back end. They lost that in letting Matt Carle go in free agency. Meszaros and Coburn are solid enough, but this is a team built for the counterattack and to control the puck in the offensive zone. Meszaros, Coburn, Schenn, Foster, Grossmann, and Gervais (and Lilja who is in the minors) aren't going to be able to do that. Not unless they're paired with a puck mover.
The worst part for Flyers fans is that I'm not sure if they've even got the assets to trade for a puck moving D if one were to become available. They're not going to part with their core forwards; they have an empty cupboard of prospects; they need their picks; and I don't see a D for a D deal being made.
I still think the Flyers are a playoff team - their forwards are awesome and as I said, Bryzgalov will be solid - but without adding some D that fit with the team's up-tempo style, I don't see them making any noise in the playoffs this year.
Bryzgalov was the story on the minds of most this year when thinking about how the Flyers would do this season. Well, that needs to change because after two games Bryzgalov has shown that he will be a fine goaltender. Maybe he won't steal as many games as he should at his price point, but it sure doesn't look like he's going to be the problem.
Instead, the Flyers are going to need to rethink their defensive corps. After Kimmo Timmonen, the team doesn't have a true puck mover on the back end. They lost that in letting Matt Carle go in free agency. Meszaros and Coburn are solid enough, but this is a team built for the counterattack and to control the puck in the offensive zone. Meszaros, Coburn, Schenn, Foster, Grossmann, and Gervais (and Lilja who is in the minors) aren't going to be able to do that. Not unless they're paired with a puck mover.
The worst part for Flyers fans is that I'm not sure if they've even got the assets to trade for a puck moving D if one were to become available. They're not going to part with their core forwards; they have an empty cupboard of prospects; they need their picks; and I don't see a D for a D deal being made.
I still think the Flyers are a playoff team - their forwards are awesome and as I said, Bryzgalov will be solid - but without adding some D that fit with the team's up-tempo style, I don't see them making any noise in the playoffs this year.
Quick Thoughts on Game 1 for the Wings
Last night was ugly. But, St. Louis is the team to beat in the west in my opinion and the Wings were at their worst. Let's give them a mulligan.
Even so, I continue to not like the Tootoo and Samuelsson signings. Tootoo simply does not fit this team, and Samuelsson is taking the spot of one of Nyquist or Tatar who are both ready to contribute in the NHL.
But the biggest problem last night was that Kyle Quincey is a shell of the player that the Wings thought they were getting. He was bad when we acquired him last year, and last night he was awful. In the "defense by committee" the Wings are running, he can't be that bad.
But I'm going to see what the next two games against clubs the Wings should handily beat bring before making too many judgments.
15 Eastern Conference Predictions
I know that I'm a bit late on this, but here's 15 predictions for the East:
1) The Stanley Cup Champion will either be the New York Rangers or the Pittsburgh Penguins.
2) Bryzgalov will have a major bounce back year, but will still have a high GAA due to Philly's weak defense.
3) The top 5 scorers will all be from the East.
4) New Jersey and Florida will miss the playoffs.
5) Tukka Rask will challenge Henrik Lundqvist as the best goalie in the East.
6) Three teams from the Southeast will make the playoffs.
7) Rick DiPietro will play in at least 15 games.
8) Tyler Ennis will emerge as a legitimate first line scoring forward.
9) On the other hand, Cody Hodgson will struggle immensely.
10) PK Subban will hold out the longer than Benn and O'Reilly.
11) By the end of the season, the Schenn/JvR trade will look a lot less lopsided.
12) Jason Arnott will sign with Washington or New Jersey.
13) Anders Lindback will be the best goalie in the Southeast
14) Pittsburgh will find a winger for Crosby other than Dupuis and Kunitz.
15) My prediction standings:
1. PIT
2. BOS
3. TB
4. NYR
5. WSH
6. PHI
7. OTT
8. CAR
9. FLA
10. BUF
11. NJ
12. MTL
13. WPG
14. TOR
15. NYI
Thursday, January 17, 2013
15 Predictions - Western Conference
So, with my school randomly closed with a building issue, I decided that today would be a great day to analyze where each team will place in the standings this year. Then I realized with how close teams are, that it's going to be impossible. I'll still do it, but instead here are 15 predictions for the Western Conference:
- The Calder Trophy (rookie of the year) comes down to three kids in the Western Conference: Vladimir Tarasenko (STL), Mikael Granlund (MIN), and Justin Schultz (EDM).
- One of Phoenix or Nashville misses the playoffs.
- Two of Edmonton, Colorado, and Minnesota make the playoffs.
- Anaheim signs both Perry and Getzlaf to long-term contracts and then trades Bobby Ryan.
- The Canucks do in fact trade Roberto Luongo this year.
- Corey Crawford of Chicago bounces back from a sophomore slump much in the same fashion that Jimmy Howard of Detroit did.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets will be much more competitive, but their goaltending will cause them to have the first overall pick and draft Nathan MacKinnon.
- Gabriel Landeskog proves to be a worthy choice for captain of Colorado, despite being the youngest ever captain in the NHL.
- Damien Brunner will be a legitimate scoring forward for Detroit.
- Alex Pietrangelo will win the Norris Trophy (best defenseman in the league).
- The Calgary Flames finish as the second worst team in the Western Conference and trade Jarome Iginla.
- Josh Harding and Devan Dubnyk emerge as the starting goaltenders for their respective clubs (MIN and EDM).
- Jonathan Quick and Jaroslav Halak are nominated for the Vezina Trophy (best goaltender in the league).
- Colorado's Ryan O'Reilly holds out for the entire year.
- Jamie Benn (Dallas) signs and is top 10 in league scoring this year.
And just for the fun of being wrong, here are my predictions for the standings:
- Los Angeles Kings
- St. Louis Blues
- Vancouver Canucks
- Chicago Blackhawks
- Detroit Red Wings
- Colorado Avalanche
- Phoenix Coyotes
- Minnesota Wild
- San Jose Sharks
- Nashville Predators
- Edmonton Oilers
- Anaheim Ducks
- Dallas Stars
- Calgary Flames
- Columbus Blue Jackets
Sunday, January 6, 2013
It's Over! First Order of Business for NHL Teams
Early this morning, the NHL lockout thankfully came to a conclusion. It'll likely take until Tuesday for all of the paperwork to be finalized and voted on, however once that happens several teams will have some very important business to take care of right away, as several key players remain unsigned as restricted free agents. They are: (per CapGeek.com)
Ryan O'Reilly - Colorado
Jamie Benn - Dallas
Dmitry Kulikov - Florida
P.K. Subban - Montreal
Micahel Del Zotto - New York Rangers
Cody Franson - Toronto
I full expect all of these players to sign quickly. In fact, I'd be surprised if most of the weren't signed by Wednesday. Teams feel a need to win fans back right now due to the bitterness of the lockout, and making sure the players that fans love come back will be important. It is also important to note that all of the above players are also stars for their teams besides Franson. These deals should all be interesting as they'll set the marketplace in the new salary cap.
Cody Franson is a bit different though. After being acquired by Toronto two summers ago, he never seemed to mesh last season. He's a large, offensively gifted defenseman who isn't physical and isn't strong in his own end. He's fine on the power play, and sheltered with offensive zone starts. However, that's not something Toronto needs. I'm still expecting to see him get signed quickly, but likely traded quickly as well. He may be of interest for teams like Minnesota, Detroit, Dallas, and Edmonton who all look a little light on the blueline. He also could be part of a deal for Roberto Luongo, who many reporters have claimed Toronto has interest in.
I'll try to be post regularly now that the NHL is back, including more details about the new CBA once they're made readily available. In the mean time, I can't wait to start hearing about actual hockey news on Tuesday!
P.S. Also look for Kyle Palmieri (MIN), James Sheppard(SJ), and Nick Petrecki (SJ) to all be quickly signed. They're in the same boat, but will be signed to two-way deals and will likely play in the AHL.
Ryan O'Reilly - Colorado
Jamie Benn - Dallas
Dmitry Kulikov - Florida
P.K. Subban - Montreal
Micahel Del Zotto - New York Rangers
Cody Franson - Toronto
I full expect all of these players to sign quickly. In fact, I'd be surprised if most of the weren't signed by Wednesday. Teams feel a need to win fans back right now due to the bitterness of the lockout, and making sure the players that fans love come back will be important. It is also important to note that all of the above players are also stars for their teams besides Franson. These deals should all be interesting as they'll set the marketplace in the new salary cap.
Cody Franson is a bit different though. After being acquired by Toronto two summers ago, he never seemed to mesh last season. He's a large, offensively gifted defenseman who isn't physical and isn't strong in his own end. He's fine on the power play, and sheltered with offensive zone starts. However, that's not something Toronto needs. I'm still expecting to see him get signed quickly, but likely traded quickly as well. He may be of interest for teams like Minnesota, Detroit, Dallas, and Edmonton who all look a little light on the blueline. He also could be part of a deal for Roberto Luongo, who many reporters have claimed Toronto has interest in.
I'll try to be post regularly now that the NHL is back, including more details about the new CBA once they're made readily available. In the mean time, I can't wait to start hearing about actual hockey news on Tuesday!
P.S. Also look for Kyle Palmieri (MIN), James Sheppard(SJ), and Nick Petrecki (SJ) to all be quickly signed. They're in the same boat, but will be signed to two-way deals and will likely play in the AHL.
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