Ideas to Prevent a Lockout

This coming Saturday night, there will be a lockout in the NHL. That's all but guaranteed.

The NHL just recent lost a whole season to a lockout (2004-2005). I blame that lockout for preventing the Tampa Bay Lightning from becoming a strong Southern hockey market. I blame that lockout for slowing the development of Detroit superstars Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. I blame it for robbing hockey fans from one more season of Nicklas Lidstrom, Teemu Selanne, Brendan Shanahan, Joe Sakic, Steve Yzerman, Chris Chelios, and many more. I blame that lockout for me quitting playing hockey.

It sucked. And here we are again.

The players won't take pay cuts even though some NHL franchises are losing tens of millions ever year. The owners want to impose huge and drastic pay cuts and changes to player contracts. Meanwhile it's the fans and many other organizational employees who really get the shaft.

The players won't budge from their 57% of revenue. The owners are asking them to lower it to below 50%. They're going to end up having to meet somewhere in the middle. What those percentages will be is anyone's guess, though close to 50/50 seems to be a good one. Here's some ideas to help make meeting in the middle easier to stomach for both parties:

1. Implement a second contract. Currently, there is a set 3 year rookie contract. The owners wanted this upped to 5 years in their first proposal. Instead, make a second 2 year contract where players don't have unattainable bonuses but have salaries that are relatively easy for teams to stomach (i.e. no more making $6+ million per year after your rookie contract expires). 
2. Limit contract lengths to ten years. Ten years is still more or less a life contract, and would avoid most of the cap circumventing deals in the league. 
3. Allow the players to form small committees that work with the NHL in the following areas: health & safety; relocation, alignment, & scheduling; rules; and equipment. This gives the players the partnership that they seem to be seeking. 
4. Insure players after retirement for any health issues that can be linked to acquiring a concussion from playing NHL hockey or any other health issue that may prevent players from acquiring post-retirement jobs.
5. Increase revenue sharing. This shouldn't be a problem as both sides seem to recognize a need for this. Make it work better from the players' point-of-view though. 

We'll see which of these happen, if any besides the fifth point. I just hope we have NHL hockey soon. 

Northwest Division Preview

Continuing my division previews...

Vancouver Canucks

Good: Vancouver hasn't done a lot this offseason, but what they did do was replace Sami Salo with Jason Garrison. While last year may have been a career season offensively for Garrison that he won't be able to replicated, he is a very well rounded defender who will easily slide into Vancouver's top four. He's also in his prime and is typically pretty healthy - two things Salo is not. Garrison should provide a boost to an already talented Vancouver team.

Bad: Ryan Kesler's injury is concerning as after trading Hodgson, Vancouver simply does not have anyone ready to step in as the second line center. This will also impact the likes of Booth and Raymond who won't produce the same numbers without Kesler as their pivot.

Ugly: Roberto Luongo's trade request will continue to be the story until he's actually traded. And while Schneider looks like the real deal, I see Vancouver fans getting down on him within a couple of years as he has a tendency to make some major errors while playing the puck and Vancouver has quickly become one of the toughest markets on a goalie. In my mind, what this means is that Vancouver can't really afford to just give Luongo away. We'll have to see how much value they can get for him..

Bottom Line: Vancouver will once again be the top team in the Western Conference.


Colorado Avalanche

Good: Colorado was able to replace Peter Mueller with P.A. Parenteau - an improvement if only because Parenteau doesn't have the injury history that Mueller does. Meanwhile, the team was able to reasonably re-sign both Johnson and Duchene. Their young core should also be expected to continue improving this season.

Bad: Last year was a down year for both Paul Stastny and Matt Duchene. Based on some of the decisions made last season, I'm not completely sold that Joe Sacco is the best coach for these players. Mueller leaving is also bad even though he was replaced by Parenteau, as one would have to believe at his salary he could have returned in addition to the team signing Parenteau. Stastny and Duchene simply need talented players in order for their talents to really shine.

Ugly: Varlamov ran very hot and cold last year and will need to be more consistent to fully justify the draft picks given up to bring him into the fold. Sacco also needs to display a better understanding of how to manage Duchene and Stastny so that their offensive talents can equate to actual offense.

Bottom Line: Colorado will be in the hunt for a playoff spot all season long with a large grouping of teams. I see them finishing anywhere from 7th to 10th.


Minnesota Wild

Good: Well, this is easy. Any team that adds Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as free agents had a really good summer. They also added depth forwards Torrey Mitchell, Zenon Konopka, and Jake Dowell. They also have rookies Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Jonas Brodin, Brett Bulmer, Jason Zucker, Johan Larsson, and Zack Phillips turning pro for a full year. There's just a lot of good stuff going on here.

Bad: Take a look at that defense besides Ryan Suter. Tom Gilbert is a solid second pairing guy. Jared Spurgeon is ready to be a second pairing guy, but I'm not sure if he's ready to log minutes next to Suter all game as is expected. After that? Marco Scandella, Clayton Stoner, Justin Falk, Nate Prosser. Maybe Steve Kampfer, Jonas Brodin, or Matt Dumba. This is a really young, inexperienced group with a lot to prove. They'll need really good coaching in order to be successful. Also, I'm curious how the higher expectations will factor into the play in Minnesota as in reality they're definitely not a lock to make the playoffs this year.

Ugly: The expectation is that Granlund will be the second line center. He's immensely talented, but I'm not sure if that'll be a seamless transition. He'll have the likes of Setoguchi, Bouchard, and Cullen as possible wingers or maybe another rookie like Zucker or Coyle. I see that second line being inconsistent, at least in the first half of the season as Granlund adjusts to the North American game. And I think Minnesota's inexperienced defense will make a balanced attack up front very much a necessity.

Bottom Line: There is a ton to be excited for in Minnesota. I love this team going forward. But this year, this team is very much a bubble team. The playoffs are very possible, but so is finishing ninth or tenth. I'll be watching them a lot of GameCenter Live though (of course I always do thanks to their beautiful jerseys).


Calgary Flames

Good: Jiri Hudler and Dennis Wideman? Meh, I guess those are nice if overpriced additions. But, I'm excited to see Sven Baertschi all year young. He'll be a contender for rookie of the year. A full year of Cammalleri should be a good thing. Should. And I'm intrigued by Roman Cervanka. But Baertschi. That's what's good here. Oh, and Bob Hartley. I think he's an excellent coach whom I still can't believe couldn't find a job in the NHL for a while.

Bad: Losing Moss and Jokinen who were pretty successful playing shutdown roles last year hurts. I've got no idea who's going to get those minutes now. Nobody really fits the bill.

Ugly: Those contracts handed out to Hudler and Wideman and rather ugly. This a cap team without noticeably improving their roster from last year and apart from Baertschi, they don't have an exceptionally bright future in terms of prospects. And Jarome Iginla's contract is almost up. Unless this team exceeds expectations, that's going to be an ugly situation.

Bottom Line: Calgary will once again be a bubble team. With the improvements that Minnesota and Dallas made, along with Colorado and Edmonton likely being more competitive, I still see Calgary on the outside looking in.


Edmonton Oilers

Good: Though expected, it was a good move being able to sign Justin Schultz. Yakupov, of course, also looks like he'll be a star.

Bad: This team was the second worst team in the league last year and subtracted Cam Barker and will add two rookies to the lineup. I don't care how much the young guys improve, that simply isn't a recipe for a successful season. And the defense just does not look strong whatsoever.

Ugly: Dubnyk's contract fits the bill here. So does the tandem of Dubnyk/Khabibulin. It could work, but likely won't with this teams defensive corps. The handling of Omark, Paajarvi, and Hemsky has been confusing at best.

Bottom Line: This team will need to be pure run-and-gun to be successful, but I just don't see a lot of success this year. I'm expecting another top five pick for Edmonton next year.

Pacific Division Preview

With parity in the NHL, I think predicting standings is more or less a crapshoot anymore. So many factors and so many bubble teams. Instead, I'll preview the good, the bad, and the ugly for each team and guess the whereabouts of where the team will be standings wise... nothing specific. So, here we go with the Pacific Division:

Los Angeles Kings

Good: Well, LA has the luxury of returning to the ice with exactly the same team that just won the Stanley Cup. Thus, they have the knowledge that this team has what it takes. They will also benefit from full years from Darryl Sutter, Jeff Carter, and Slava Voynov.

Bad: LA did win it all last year, but this year they need to be more consistent offensively in order to be true contenders. A full year from the three aforementioned people should help in this area, but the likes of Mike Richards and Dustin Penner will also have to step up their game during the regular season.

Ugly: Well, they face the same question every Stanley Cup champion does: Will they be able to overcome the infamous Stanley Cup hangover? It's almost a given that the likes of Carter, Doughty, Richards, and others have been celebrating in style this year. Also, there's those rumored trade requests from Jonathan Bernier and Tomas Hickey. The latter is really irrelevant, and the former will be more likely to be dealt in the season after getting some more starts to increase his value.

Bottom Line: Overall, this team should be battling for the Pacific Division crown and should be one of the top teams in the conference.


San Jose Sharks

Good: Trading for and then signing Brad Stuart was expected, but hasn't gotten the publicity it should have in my opinion. As a Wings fan, I know that Stuart is among the very best shutdown defenders in the game and rarely makes a mistake. He's also a very physical guy who can make some really big hits. His acquisition will improve the Sharks tremendously. In fact, on paper (as usual), this team looks like a real contender.

Bad: The likes of Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau, Brad Stuart, and Martin Havlat are all on the wrong side of thirty. Once again, as a Wings fan, I've seen this brought up many times as being a negative. We'll see whether San Jose's veteran core can channel Detroit in playing extremely well past their primes. Also, this is a core that hasn't been able to get it done in the playoffs together.

Ugly: Last year's results simply weren't acceptable for San Jose. They finished seventh in the conference and were easily dealt with in the first round by St. Louis. I haven't taken too close of a look to see if advanced stats indicate the team simply had bad luck, but the bottom line is that they have to prove this year that they aren't a team in decline.

Bottom Line: I wouldn't be overly shocked if this team is a bubble team again, but I see them fighting with Los Angeles for first in the division and being one of the better teams in the regular season.


Phoenix Coyotes

Good: This team's depth at defense is ridiculous. After acquiring Michalek, they now boast: OEL, Yandle, Michalek, Morris, Klesla, Schlemko, Stone, Gormley, Summers. Wow. They also made a smart free agent signing by bringing in David Moss and were able to keep Sean Burke around to continue working with Mike Smith. A full season from Antoine Vermette will also be nice.

Bad: Replacing Ray Whitney's season last year with Steve Sullivan hurts in a big way for a team that struggled to score last year as it was. This team just does not look like a playoff team offensively. Boedker is in his fourth year (common breakout year for forwards) but hasn't shown me that he will ever be a consistent offensive player. Vermette for a full season will help, but he isn't anything more than a complementary scorer. This team will simply struggle to score.

Ugly: Shane Doan could leave. It doesn't get much uglier than that. The ownership remains an absolute mystery. Honestly, the team should have moved a long time ago as much as I like the team's look. No team really has anything uglier going on.

Bottom Line: Dave Tippett has shown any team he coaches is at least a bubble team. This team will be so good defensively that I see them being in the hunt for the playoffs all year long. Still, the team will have to work hard every night and earn every inch, which can be challenging for a team that just had a long playoff run.


Dallas Stars

Good: Adding Derek Roy, Jaromir Jagr, and Ray Whitney helps this team's offense in a big way. The likes of Benn and Eriksson will be in for big seasons. Jagr's signing also brings a big name and personality to Dallas, which they haven't had since Modano and Turco.

Bad: Looking at this team's defense, I just can't see them in the playoffs. After Goligoski... absolutely nobody jumps out at me as being players who belong in a contending team's top four.

Ugly: This team's attendance recently was as ugly as it gets. I couldn't believe how empty the arena looked. Hopefully signing Jagr and now possessing a good looking offense will bring people back into the seats. Injuries are a real concern as Benn, Jagr, Roy (already out), and Lehtonen have all been susceptible in the past. And, please, can they change their hideous uniforms to something reminiscent of their former glory? Easily the worst jerseys in the league.

Bottom Line: This team will be a bubble team again, but I just don't see this team making the playoffs.


Anaheim Ducks

Good: Ryan Getzlaf can't be any worse than he was last year, so he'll bounce back. Teemu Selanne has returned. Jonas Hiller is healthy and by the end of the season last year looked like himself after a scary bought with vertigo. The team also features a surprisingly decent group of defensemen.

Bad: This team has little and less depth at forward. They need Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan, and Selanne to produce because they don't have much else.

Ugly: Justin Schultz wanted out and got out for nothing. Bobby Ryan looks like he wants out. Lubomir Visnovsky got traded, but claims he had a no no-trade clause. Perry and Getzlaf are both in contract years. Saku Koivu is penciled in as the second line center. Scary stuff.

Bottom Line: As long as the team avoids another slow start, they should be a bubble team. If they do start slow again, they don't have a shot.

Still Hope for Hockeytown?

My last post was a month ago - and was a direct reply to Detroit failing to land Ryan Suter or Zach Parise. Since then, not much has happened. Alex Semin got snagged by Carolina on a contract I would have liked to have seen Detroit offer and Detroit has apparently found Shane Doan's asking price to be too rich.

Okay, I get this. I would love another goal scorer at forward, but forward is anything but a weakness for the Wings currently. Datsyuk and Zetterberg may be aging and may be prone to occasional cold spells, but they're still two-way studs who can anchor the team's two really strong lines. Franzen is wildly inconsistent and lackadaisical (and to me, quite infuriating to watch) but he still can be a clutch scorer and is a nice piece to have in the top six with a cap hit just under $4 million. Filppula showed last year that he can put up points when provided with an opportunity. So there's four solid pieces for your top two lines. The likes of Bertuzzi, Samuelsson, and Cleary will rotate in and out depending on if they're running hot or cold. The Wings will likely be able to give one if not both of Nyquist and Brunner an opportunity in the top six, and I'm one who thinks Nyquist could challenge for the Calder next year if given the right opportunity. So, really, the Wings are in fine shape for their top nine. And they have too many forwards competing for the remaining five spots: Abdelkader, Tootoo, Miller, Eaves, Mursak, Emmerton. Possibly Holmstrom if he tries out (though I don't see him making this team). The Wings will hopefully turn one of those guys into a draft pick via a trade. We'll see.

Goaltending is currently more solid than it's been in a while. Howard is a legitimate number one guy, Gustavsson has more talent than most of our backups in recent years have had, and we currently still have MacDonald as a number three.

Defense is the true question mark. Kronwall's production will see a spike as he mans the first power play unit now, but I'm leery of him now being our only true option to shut down the opponents top offensive weapons. White might be decent enough to play on the second pairing sans Lidstrom, but not with the likes of Ericsson and Quincey. The bottom line is that Kronwall, White, Ericsson, and Quincey is not a the defensive corps on a contending team. Smith is a bit of a wild card, but I don't see him being strong enough defensively in his first season to be relied on as a shutdown guy. And Kindl is a depth defenseman at best. The Wings seemingly have to sign somebody else, but whoever that turns out to be will likely be a 6/7 guy anyway.

So, in my mind, the Wings hopes are really hanging by a thread defensively. And if there's an injury... yikes.

But, all is not lost. On paper, I would have said that New Jersey's defensive corps was weaker than Detroit's current group. By a long shot. But their coach implemented a system that allowed them to be quite good - as in playing in the Stanley Cup Finals. Babcock is considered one of the top coaches in the world by the vast majority of hockey writers, and should be able to implement a system that can allow Detroit's defense to be successful. Just look at the Mighty Ducks team that he took to the Cup finals way back. That team lacked in many areas. And, there's still a good chance in my mind that Holland makes a trade by the Winter Classic to shore up the defense. Yandle, Bouwmeester, or more likely somebody no one has mentioned. Also, it's hard to say that any team that was worse than Detroit last year is now better - maybe Chicago with Oduya for a full season. In fact, it could be argued that Detroit may now be better than Nashville.

So Wings fans, to summarize, we can take solace in the following:

• Babcock is a good enough coach to figure out a system where our defense can be successful
• A team with what looked to be a lesser defense on paper just played for the Stanley Cup this past June
• A trade could still happen
• There isn't a team that finished below Detroit that is now clearly better than the Wings

It's the dog days of summer, and the CBA negotiations are draining my enthusiasm, but at some point this month I plan on previewing each division. So if you're one of the two who reads my occasional posts, stay tuned. 

Hope in the Motor City

Maybe it's because I'm a true NHL fan and hockey fan, but I don't view Ryan Suter and Zach Parise signing in Minnesota as the death blow for the Wings that many think it is.

I'm very excited that both players chose the Wild and that Minnesota is now relevant.

I'm also very excited that it looks like the Wings will lean a bit on rookies Brendan Smith and Gustav Nyquist next year. I've watched these guys a lot in GR, and they're going to be good.

I also don't for a minute think the Wings are done.

Pencil in a veteran D like Pavel Kubina, though I'd also be intrigued by Marc-Andre Gragnani, a young player whose stock has collapsed in the past year. Playing with the Wings, I wonder if he could rediscover his talents.

On that note, Peter Mueller - he of the many injuries - is a UFA still. Could be a bust due to his injury history, but could also be a cheap option to add 20+ goals to the lineup.

Shane Doan, Alex Semin, and Andrei Kostitsyn are also out there. I'm not expecting any for various reasons, but would love to see Semin on a short (2-3) year deal.

On the trade front, don't expect Rick Nash or Bobby Ryan. They would cost way too many assets. Don't expect Keith Yandle either, unless someone can convince Holland to give up Filppula for the top-pairind defender.

But the likes of Paul Martin, Jay Bouwmeester, Tobias Enstrom, Ales Hemsky, Cody Franson, Andrej Sekera, Ryan Whitney; not necessarily the best names, but all are guys who could bolster our lineup and I think could be had for the right price.

Ken Holland is considered one of the best GMs in the game by many. He's had an easy time of it for years, this summer he'll have to earn that title. And here's thinking he will and that he's not finished yet.

P.S. Forgive any spelling errors, as I wrote this on my phone at my cottage.

Some Different Speculation

The following are things I'm beginning to wonder about, or that I think may be smart for teams to do. As far as I can tell, none of these things are rumored to happen, they're just things that I've thought of based on other rumors. And... here... we... go:

Could Nashville Be the Big Winner July 1st?


Today, Andy Strickland reported that he's heard that Ryan Suter may be seeing if Nashville adds more pieces July 1st. Considering that Poile seems to hope/think that he'll be having discussions with Suter on July 1st, this could be possible. In the past, both Weber and Suter had made it clear that they wanted to see the management bring in players to show their commitment to winning, as Pierre LeBrun writes here.

So, let's assume Ryan Suter is indeed waiting to see what Nashville does in terms of adding talent. Shea Weber, though an RFA, could be in the same boat. Heck, even Hal Gill might be doing the same. The problem is, that's a serious chunk of money waiting to see who's added. Let's go ahead and overestimate that those three players could together bring about $20 million in cap hit.

Per CapGeek, that would only put the team at about $52 million with a $70 million cap. Re-signing restricted  free agents Sergei Kostitsyn and Colin Wilson could put the team at about $58 million with 17 players signed. The likes of Jack Hillen, Bradon Yip, Brian McGrattan, and whoever ends up being the backup goalie will come cheaply and will likely put them at somewhere like $62 million for 21 players. That should be just enough money to afford the cap hit for Zach Parise.

Think about it, Parise wants to win. If New Jersey can't afford him, he'll likely look for a winning team and stability. As long as Suter and Weber are in the fold, Nashville makes plenty of sense. And for Nashville, Parise is the goal scorer they were hoping they were getting when Radulov came back. Plus, there's been rumors, albeit baseless that they seem, that Suter and Parise would enjoy playing together.

It's a total long shot and I haven't heard a single rumor about it, but it would be interesting and shocking if it happened.

Pavelec and Columbus a Match?


Here's a move that I think could make sense. Columbus plans on trading Rick Nash for a bounty, and needs a starting goaltender. TSN's Darren Dreger touches on this here. Now, apparently Winnipeg goaltender Ondrej Pavelec is seeking north of $4 million per year or will leave for the KHL. Commentary on that can be seen here. I don't see Winnipeg paying Pavelec, who has been inconsistent at best, that much. But, I wonder if Columbus would.

I think any trade would see Columbus sending much-maligned goalie Steve Mason to Winnipeg. Mason has been awful the past few years, but only has a year left on his contract and may need a second chance playing behind a decent defense. Does Winnipeg have a decent defense? With the likes of Bogosian, Enstrom, Stuart, Byfuglien, Hainsey, Clitsome and Postma they should be decent. And Columbus looks like they'll have enough prospects to send one or two the way of Winnipeg. This is important because in my mind Winnipeg doesn't have too many high end prospects: Cormier, Scheifele, Postma, Machachek, and Klingberg are the only ones I see playing in the NHL. I really think there could be a deal to be made between these two teams.

What is Ken Holland's Plan B?

Let's all assume that the Detroit Red Wings plan to sign both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter on July 1st. This will be to replace Nick Lidstrom and to upgrade the top-6 forwards, giving Pavel Datsyuk a legitimate scoring winger. Both, in my mind, are legitimate needs if the Wings want to continue to challenge for the Cup in the post-Lidstrom era.

Ryan Suter looks like he'll hit the open market, but will still consider returning to Nashville, while Parise apparently wants to go back to New Jersey where he just came within two games of winning the Stanley Cup.

Even if both hit the open market, there's really no guarantee that Detroit will be able to sign either. Almost every team in the league is expected to express interest in one of the players, and some will likely offer more money than the Wings. So, what is Ken Holland's backup plan?

No matter what, he has to add a top defender. Other notable UFAs include Dennis Wideman, Matt Carle, Justin Schultz (a rookie who isn't expected to choose the Wings), and not much else. Matt Carle is expected to re-sign with Philadelphia, and Wideman doesn't inspire much confidence. Sadly, I think Wideman is the only realistic option if Detroit doesn't get Suter.

As for a top forward, the likely candidate if Detroit misses out on Parise will be Alexander Semin. He's scored 40 goals in the NHL before, but his work ethic doesn't really match with Detroit. Other options could include Shane Doan and Ryan Smyth, but both are short term fixes at best.

As for trades, Ken Holland simply doesn't trade roster players and isn't a position to trade top picks or prospects. The Wings currently need their prospects. So, I'd be stunned to see the likes of Rick Nash come to Detroit.

The bottom line is that Detroit needs Suter and Parise in the worst way. The question is whether they will choose to be sign up to be Detroit's missing pieces.

Why New Jersey Kept Their Pick

With an exciting playoff run coming to an even more exciting end for the Los Angeles Kings, the silly season has officially begun in the NHL. For those unaware, the silly season refers to three events in the NHL: the trading deadline, the week leading up to the NHL draft when teams often make lots of trades (next week), and first day when unrestricted free agents (UFAs) can sign with any team of their desire - July 1st.

It's been a while since I've blogged, but I'll probably be blogging pretty regularly the next three weeks as my schedule is lighter than it has been in years as I continue searching for a teaching job.

Anyway, this blog is going to focus on the New Jersey Devils and why they decided to keep their first round pick this year.

Here's a quick background:

• New Jersey singed Ilja Kovalchuk to a ridiculous contract two summers ago that the NHL ruled was illegal. They then penalized the Devils and said they had to forfeit one of their first round picks in the next four years. 

• Last year they were 4th overall, and obviously chose to keep their pick.

• This year, being the loser in the Cup Finals, they have the 29th (out of 30) pick overall. Thus, most anticipated they would give it up. 

• But... they didn't.

So why didn't they? Well, in the previously linked blog the reporter, Tom Gulitti, says that he spoke with Devil's GM Lou Lamoriello earlier in the day, so it's not like he forgot to notify the NHL. In my mind, there's only two reasons that make any sense as to why New Jersey would keep this pick. They are as follows:

1. The Devils plan on using the pick to select a goaltender of the future - possibly Malcom Subban who most mock drafts having going right around where New Jersey will be picking. The Devils would do this as future-Hall-of-Fame Martin Brodeur likely has only a year or two left before he'll retire leaving a major hole for the Devils. 
2. The plan on using the pick to trade for a young goaltender - maybe Jonathan Bernier of the LA Kings. Doing this would allow the team to have Brodeur mentor the young goalie for a year or two before giving the keys to the net tot that goalie.

The bottom line is that New Jersey desperately needs a plan for when Marty decides to retire, and dealing with this issue is the only reason why I would see the team holding on to this year's pick. Of course some people may think it's just Lamoriello being stubborn, which while possible, he's proven to be a smart and calculated GM in his time and this would be a very bad move as they may never have as low of a draft pick in the next two years. 

It'll be interesting to see how they choose to use the pick. 

Changes for Wings for Game 5

There's a lot of blame to go around in Detroit right now. Sure, most people (outside of Detroit) thought that Nashville would beat the Wings in this series. Nashville is younger, deeper, has an elite defensive pairing (Weber/Suter), and one of the top two or three goalies in the game in Rinne. But there is no reason for the Wings to have lost both games at home when they have been dominant at home all year long.

People want to blame Howard. Yeah, he over committed on the Predators' second goal. But Lidstrom, White, and Hudler all followed the same guy into the corner leaving more open ice than I've ever seen. Meanwhile, Filppula should have been covering Klein, who ended up scoring and just stopped covering him in the neutral zone. That was just a terrible play by the entire team. And yes, Howard should've stopped the goal that didn't count and could have made a great save on the Preds' first goal. But Howard isn't the problem. Howard isn't an elite goalie, he's a good goalie. He makes 2.25 per year currently. He shouldn't be expected to outplay Rinne - he's not that talented. He should be expected to keep Detroit in the game and give them a chance to win on every night. And he's been doing that.

Detroit had a lot of shots last night, but in my opinion there weren't a lot of quality chances there. Rinne may have made a couple saves that made me say wow, but that was it. If the Wings want to beat an elite goaltender like Rinne they have to generate more rebounds, more screen shots, and more high quality side-to-side chances that are difficult for the best of the best (which Rinne is) to stop. Right now, most of Detroit's chances have been coming from the perimeter as Nashville has done an excellent job of plugging up the middle of the ice and the front of the net.

This is where players need to drive the net. Franzen and Bertuzzi are both big enough that they should always be doing this. Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Filppula, Hudler, Cleary, Nyquist and the rest need to do the same. Believe it or not Nashville isn't an overly big team. They aren't an overly physical team. They aren't beating the Wings up whatsoever; they're just playing hard, defensive hockey.

The Wings have enough in their arsenal to beat Nashville, but they just aren't doing what it takes. Franzen especially has been disappointing to me as he got a monster contract because he's big and supposedly clutch in the playoffs. He needs to use his size to drive the net and take over a game instead of just being angry. Turn that anger into good hockey.

If I were Babcock I'd change up the lines to look something like this:

Nyquist - Datsyuk - Bertuzzi
Filppula - Zetterberg - Cleary
Abdelkader - Franzen - Hudler
Miller - Emmerton - Holmstrom

That gives the Wings three lines that should be able to score. Being able to role three scoring lines will wear on Nashville's defense who have a lot of inexperience after Weber/Suter, especially since they're currently missing Hal Gill.

Changes may need to be made to this team this summer - and are likely coming - but there's no reason this current group should go out in five games to a foe who is deeper but more or less is equal.

The Wings have two days of rest, which should give them enough time to figure out what they need to do to win. We'll see.

P.S. Babcock is a great coach, but he needs to play Nyquist more. He's our only young skilled guy and he's looked dangerous at times recently with limited minutes.

The Trades That Didn't Happen

As the trade deadline passed today, I found myself more interested in the rumors of deals discussed than in most of the deals that actually happened.

Among the most interesting was San Jose supposedly offering up Antti Niemi for James van Riemsdyk. I don't understand how San Jose could do this as Greiss and Niittymaki don't really seem like a goaltending tandem for a contending team. Maybe they were planning on taking Bobrovsky back, but that still seems like a silly idea. Not to mention Philly would have looked awful to have taken another major salary in goal.

I also wonder if Dallas knew that Vancouver was willing to trade Cody Hodgson. If so, they may have offered Ott+. Hodgson is exactly the type of player that I'd have to imagine Dallas was looking for today: a young, skilled top-six forward.

And then of course there's the Rick Nash fiasco. What a mess there is in Columbus right now. I feel bad for the fans, as Columbus could really be a strong hockey market in my mind.

In my mind, a lot of these players whose names were whispered or confirmed to be on the market may be moved around the draft. Of course, the new CBA could also put a stop to that. Still, I think there'll be some blockbusters in this summer, much like last summer (M. Richards, J. Carter, D. Heatley, B. Burns).

Just for fun, here are the names I wouldn't be surprised to see moved around the draft: Rick Nash, Corey Schneider, Steve Ott, Brendan Morrow, Paul Stastny, Jonathan Bernier, Sergei Bobrovsky, Ryan Clowe, Ryan Malone, Marc Methot.

Quick Hits: Pre-Deadline Edition

• Jeff Carter for Jack Johnson and a first is easily the deadline's first blockbuster trade, and in my opinion is a mistake by both Los Angeles and Columbus. 

• Even if Carter has matured, he rarely played with Richards in Philly so there won't be much chemistry there - the two are just great teammates. Carter has also expressed many times his preference is playing center, which he won't get to do in LA. Carter needs to play center with a playmaking winger like Ales Hemsky or Patrick Kane to have the most success IMO. 

• There are plenty of advanced stats out there (not to mention the very basic plus minus rating) to show that Jack Johnson simply isn't as good as advertised. And if LA doesn't make the playoffs, Columbus is stuck with next year's first round pick. This looks bad after Philly was able to draft Couturier with the pick they got from Columbus for Carter. 

• Still, if there's one reason to be excited in Columbus it's that Johnson will be very optimistic and will have a lot of positive energy. The dude loves hockey, and loves America. Columbus deserves more players like that. 

• Phoenix acquiring Antoine Vermette surprised me as I didn't realize they had enough room in their budget to make a big addition.I think that's a really solid move for a team that just continues to surprise. I've been thinking all year LA would end up in 7th and either Colorado or Dallas would end up in 8th in the West, but now I think Phoenix will likely hold down one of those two spots.

• I'm not at all a fan of Detroit giving Todd Bertuzzi a two-year extension. The dude has his moments, but he's becoming less and less of a factor for a team that needs their top-six forwards to get younger.  I really can't imagine how he'll even be a regular in the lineup in two years for the Wings. 

• A small trade that I think would make a lot of sense: The Maple Leafs sending Keith Aulie to St. Louis for Ben Bishop. I don't think it'll happen or has even been discussed, but that trade would make sense for both teams in my opinion. 

Tampa/Detroit/Colorado Three Team Deal

In the first unexpected move of the 2012 trade deadline in the NHL, Tampa Bay sent winger Steve Downie to Colorado for defender Kyle Quincey. Then, Tampa dealt Quincey to Detroit for a first round pick and minor league defender Sebastien Piche.

Detroit:

First off, one of Ken Holland's mistakes was choosing to keep Derek Meech over Kyle Quincey in 2008. I remember hating the move when it happened, even though I knew Quincey to was seen at times at college parties around Grand Rapids (where he played AHL hockey) from time to time. The dude was a kid, and any partying ways were sure to die off after exposure to Babcock and the Red Wings, who are very much fitness freaks. If I remember correctly, the move was made because Meech was able to play forward (though he really never belonged as a forward) and was forced after Chelios decided to come back yet again. And now Detroit has to trade a first round pick and a prospect - albeit one not likely to be an NHL player - to reacquire Quincey? Yikes.

However, forgiving that mistake by Holland, the trade is solid for Detroit. Quincey is an upgrade currently over Commodore, Kindl, and Ericsson. He's also a good insurance policy when/if the Wings lost Lidstrom or Stuart this summer. And, a Holland said, he likely developed better playing big minutes on weaker teams. He can play on the power play and/or penalty kill. In short, he improves the Wings and I'm glad he's back. Any locker room issues will likely be erased by the professionalism of his new teammates and coaching staff.

Meanwhile, while Detroit has been a great team in the draft, they've actually been relatively poor with first round picks. And while I'm sure Sebastian Piche is a heck of a nice guy, he's never been noticeable at AHL games I've attended and likely won't be a factor in the NHL. So in short, Detroit probably received more than they gave up in the trade.

Colorado:


It seems that some Colorado fans thought that Kyle Quincey alone could have netted them a top-six forward, but that simply wasn't the case though I thought they might make him part of a package to land a guy like James van Riemsdyk.

Overall, I think they got a good return in Steve Downie. The guy is a 15-25 goal guy who brings a lot of sandpaper to his game. He's played on a line with Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis and has been effective, so he's not out of place on a team's scoring line. He's probably a good second/third line forward who brings a physical presence and can chip in with some offense. I think he'll be a welcome addition to Colorado.

Tampa Bay:


This trade is harder for me to understand from Steve Yzerman and Tampa Bay's point-of-view. When it was first reported that they traded Downie for Quincey, I thought Stevie Y had made a great trade as his team needs to improve their core defenders. Quincey would have been a solid guy for the second-pairing. Acquiring him only to trade him for a late first round pick and a middle-of-the-road prospect seems odd to me as in my opinion Quincey would have been more valuable to Tampa than the package they received for him. Of course, Tampa has now stockpiled draft picks with two first rounders and three (and another possible second rounder). And it could be that Yzerman knows that if he wants to acquire the star young goalie his team so desperately needs that he needs to trade a lot of picks. Other than that though, I find the trading of Quincey hard to understand.