Continuing my division previews...
Vancouver Canucks
Good: Vancouver hasn't done a lot this offseason, but what they did do was replace Sami Salo with Jason Garrison. While last year may have been a career season offensively for Garrison that he won't be able to replicated, he is a very well rounded defender who will easily slide into Vancouver's top four. He's also in his prime and is typically pretty healthy - two things Salo is not. Garrison should provide a boost to an already talented Vancouver team.
Bad: Ryan Kesler's injury is concerning as after trading Hodgson, Vancouver simply does not have anyone ready to step in as the second line center. This will also impact the likes of Booth and Raymond who won't produce the same numbers without Kesler as their pivot.
Ugly: Roberto Luongo's trade request will continue to be the story until he's actually traded. And while Schneider looks like the real deal, I see Vancouver fans getting down on him within a couple of years as he has a tendency to make some major errors while playing the puck and Vancouver has quickly become one of the toughest markets on a goalie. In my mind, what this means is that Vancouver can't really afford to just give Luongo away. We'll have to see how much value they can get for him..
Bottom Line: Vancouver will once again be the top team in the Western Conference.
Colorado Avalanche
Good: Colorado was able to replace Peter Mueller with P.A. Parenteau - an improvement if only because Parenteau doesn't have the injury history that Mueller does. Meanwhile, the team was able to reasonably re-sign both Johnson and Duchene. Their young core should also be expected to continue improving this season.
Bad: Last year was a down year for both Paul Stastny and Matt Duchene. Based on some of the decisions made last season, I'm not completely sold that Joe Sacco is the best coach for these players. Mueller leaving is also bad even though he was replaced by Parenteau, as one would have to believe at his salary he could have returned in addition to the team signing Parenteau. Stastny and Duchene simply need talented players in order for their talents to really shine.
Ugly: Varlamov ran very hot and cold last year and will need to be more consistent to fully justify the draft picks given up to bring him into the fold. Sacco also needs to display a better understanding of how to manage Duchene and Stastny so that their offensive talents can equate to actual offense.
Bottom Line: Colorado will be in the hunt for a playoff spot all season long with a large grouping of teams. I see them finishing anywhere from 7th to 10th.
Minnesota Wild
Good: Well, this is easy. Any team that adds Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as free agents had a really good summer. They also added depth forwards Torrey Mitchell, Zenon Konopka, and Jake Dowell. They also have rookies Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Jonas Brodin, Brett Bulmer, Jason Zucker, Johan Larsson, and Zack Phillips turning pro for a full year. There's just a lot of good stuff going on here.
Bad: Take a look at that defense besides Ryan Suter. Tom Gilbert is a solid second pairing guy. Jared Spurgeon is ready to be a second pairing guy, but I'm not sure if he's ready to log minutes next to Suter all game as is expected. After that? Marco Scandella, Clayton Stoner, Justin Falk, Nate Prosser. Maybe Steve Kampfer, Jonas Brodin, or Matt Dumba. This is a really young, inexperienced group with a lot to prove. They'll need really good coaching in order to be successful. Also, I'm curious how the higher expectations will factor into the play in Minnesota as in reality they're definitely not a lock to make the playoffs this year.
Ugly: The expectation is that Granlund will be the second line center. He's immensely talented, but I'm not sure if that'll be a seamless transition. He'll have the likes of Setoguchi, Bouchard, and Cullen as possible wingers or maybe another rookie like Zucker or Coyle. I see that second line being inconsistent, at least in the first half of the season as Granlund adjusts to the North American game. And I think Minnesota's inexperienced defense will make a balanced attack up front very much a necessity.
Bottom Line: There is a ton to be excited for in Minnesota. I love this team going forward. But this year, this team is very much a bubble team. The playoffs are very possible, but so is finishing ninth or tenth. I'll be watching them a lot of GameCenter Live though (of course I always do thanks to their beautiful jerseys).
Calgary Flames
Good: Jiri Hudler and Dennis Wideman? Meh, I guess those are nice if overpriced additions. But, I'm excited to see Sven Baertschi all year young. He'll be a contender for rookie of the year. A full year of Cammalleri should be a good thing. Should. And I'm intrigued by Roman Cervanka. But Baertschi. That's what's good here. Oh, and Bob Hartley. I think he's an excellent coach whom I still can't believe couldn't find a job in the NHL for a while.
Bad: Losing Moss and Jokinen who were pretty successful playing shutdown roles last year hurts. I've got no idea who's going to get those minutes now. Nobody really fits the bill.
Ugly: Those contracts handed out to Hudler and Wideman and rather ugly. This a cap team without noticeably improving their roster from last year and apart from Baertschi, they don't have an exceptionally bright future in terms of prospects. And Jarome Iginla's contract is almost up. Unless this team exceeds expectations, that's going to be an ugly situation.
Bottom Line: Calgary will once again be a bubble team. With the improvements that Minnesota and Dallas made, along with Colorado and Edmonton likely being more competitive, I still see Calgary on the outside looking in.
Edmonton Oilers
Good: Though expected, it was a good move being able to sign Justin Schultz. Yakupov, of course, also looks like he'll be a star.
Bad: This team was the second worst team in the league last year and subtracted Cam Barker and will add two rookies to the lineup. I don't care how much the young guys improve, that simply isn't a recipe for a successful season. And the defense just does not look strong whatsoever.
Ugly: Dubnyk's contract fits the bill here. So does the tandem of Dubnyk/Khabibulin. It could work, but likely won't with this teams defensive corps. The handling of Omark, Paajarvi, and Hemsky has been confusing at best.
Bottom Line: This team will need to be pure run-and-gun to be successful, but I just don't see a lot of success this year. I'm expecting another top five pick for Edmonton next year.
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Saturday, August 11, 2012
Pacific Division Preview
With parity in the NHL, I think predicting standings is more or less a crapshoot anymore. So many factors and so many bubble teams. Instead, I'll preview the good, the bad, and the ugly for each team and guess the whereabouts of where the team will be standings wise... nothing specific. So, here we go with the Pacific Division:
Los Angeles Kings
Good: Well, LA has the luxury of returning to the ice with exactly the same team that just won the Stanley Cup. Thus, they have the knowledge that this team has what it takes. They will also benefit from full years from Darryl Sutter, Jeff Carter, and Slava Voynov.
Bad: LA did win it all last year, but this year they need to be more consistent offensively in order to be true contenders. A full year from the three aforementioned people should help in this area, but the likes of Mike Richards and Dustin Penner will also have to step up their game during the regular season.
Ugly: Well, they face the same question every Stanley Cup champion does: Will they be able to overcome the infamous Stanley Cup hangover? It's almost a given that the likes of Carter, Doughty, Richards, and others have been celebrating in style this year. Also, there's those rumored trade requests from Jonathan Bernier and Tomas Hickey. The latter is really irrelevant, and the former will be more likely to be dealt in the season after getting some more starts to increase his value.
Bottom Line: Overall, this team should be battling for the Pacific Division crown and should be one of the top teams in the conference.
San Jose Sharks
Good: Trading for and then signing Brad Stuart was expected, but hasn't gotten the publicity it should have in my opinion. As a Wings fan, I know that Stuart is among the very best shutdown defenders in the game and rarely makes a mistake. He's also a very physical guy who can make some really big hits. His acquisition will improve the Sharks tremendously. In fact, on paper (as usual), this team looks like a real contender.
Bad: The likes of Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau, Brad Stuart, and Martin Havlat are all on the wrong side of thirty. Once again, as a Wings fan, I've seen this brought up many times as being a negative. We'll see whether San Jose's veteran core can channel Detroit in playing extremely well past their primes. Also, this is a core that hasn't been able to get it done in the playoffs together.
Ugly: Last year's results simply weren't acceptable for San Jose. They finished seventh in the conference and were easily dealt with in the first round by St. Louis. I haven't taken too close of a look to see if advanced stats indicate the team simply had bad luck, but the bottom line is that they have to prove this year that they aren't a team in decline.
Bottom Line: I wouldn't be overly shocked if this team is a bubble team again, but I see them fighting with Los Angeles for first in the division and being one of the better teams in the regular season.
Phoenix Coyotes
Good: This team's depth at defense is ridiculous. After acquiring Michalek, they now boast: OEL, Yandle, Michalek, Morris, Klesla, Schlemko, Stone, Gormley, Summers. Wow. They also made a smart free agent signing by bringing in David Moss and were able to keep Sean Burke around to continue working with Mike Smith. A full season from Antoine Vermette will also be nice.
Bad: Replacing Ray Whitney's season last year with Steve Sullivan hurts in a big way for a team that struggled to score last year as it was. This team just does not look like a playoff team offensively. Boedker is in his fourth year (common breakout year for forwards) but hasn't shown me that he will ever be a consistent offensive player. Vermette for a full season will help, but he isn't anything more than a complementary scorer. This team will simply struggle to score.
Ugly: Shane Doan could leave. It doesn't get much uglier than that. The ownership remains an absolute mystery. Honestly, the team should have moved a long time ago as much as I like the team's look. No team really has anything uglier going on.
Bottom Line: Dave Tippett has shown any team he coaches is at least a bubble team. This team will be so good defensively that I see them being in the hunt for the playoffs all year long. Still, the team will have to work hard every night and earn every inch, which can be challenging for a team that just had a long playoff run.
Dallas Stars
Good: Adding Derek Roy, Jaromir Jagr, and Ray Whitney helps this team's offense in a big way. The likes of Benn and Eriksson will be in for big seasons. Jagr's signing also brings a big name and personality to Dallas, which they haven't had since Modano and Turco.
Bad: Looking at this team's defense, I just can't see them in the playoffs. After Goligoski... absolutely nobody jumps out at me as being players who belong in a contending team's top four.
Ugly: This team's attendance recently was as ugly as it gets. I couldn't believe how empty the arena looked. Hopefully signing Jagr and now possessing a good looking offense will bring people back into the seats. Injuries are a real concern as Benn, Jagr, Roy (already out), and Lehtonen have all been susceptible in the past. And, please, can they change their hideous uniforms to something reminiscent of their former glory? Easily the worst jerseys in the league.
Bottom Line: This team will be a bubble team again, but I just don't see this team making the playoffs.
Anaheim Ducks
Good: Ryan Getzlaf can't be any worse than he was last year, so he'll bounce back. Teemu Selanne has returned. Jonas Hiller is healthy and by the end of the season last year looked like himself after a scary bought with vertigo. The team also features a surprisingly decent group of defensemen.
Bad: This team has little and less depth at forward. They need Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan, and Selanne to produce because they don't have much else.
Ugly: Justin Schultz wanted out and got out for nothing. Bobby Ryan looks like he wants out. Lubomir Visnovsky got traded, but claims he had a no no-trade clause. Perry and Getzlaf are both in contract years. Saku Koivu is penciled in as the second line center. Scary stuff.
Bottom Line: As long as the team avoids another slow start, they should be a bubble team. If they do start slow again, they don't have a shot.
Los Angeles Kings
Good: Well, LA has the luxury of returning to the ice with exactly the same team that just won the Stanley Cup. Thus, they have the knowledge that this team has what it takes. They will also benefit from full years from Darryl Sutter, Jeff Carter, and Slava Voynov.
Bad: LA did win it all last year, but this year they need to be more consistent offensively in order to be true contenders. A full year from the three aforementioned people should help in this area, but the likes of Mike Richards and Dustin Penner will also have to step up their game during the regular season.
Ugly: Well, they face the same question every Stanley Cup champion does: Will they be able to overcome the infamous Stanley Cup hangover? It's almost a given that the likes of Carter, Doughty, Richards, and others have been celebrating in style this year. Also, there's those rumored trade requests from Jonathan Bernier and Tomas Hickey. The latter is really irrelevant, and the former will be more likely to be dealt in the season after getting some more starts to increase his value.
Bottom Line: Overall, this team should be battling for the Pacific Division crown and should be one of the top teams in the conference.
San Jose Sharks
Good: Trading for and then signing Brad Stuart was expected, but hasn't gotten the publicity it should have in my opinion. As a Wings fan, I know that Stuart is among the very best shutdown defenders in the game and rarely makes a mistake. He's also a very physical guy who can make some really big hits. His acquisition will improve the Sharks tremendously. In fact, on paper (as usual), this team looks like a real contender.
Bad: The likes of Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau, Brad Stuart, and Martin Havlat are all on the wrong side of thirty. Once again, as a Wings fan, I've seen this brought up many times as being a negative. We'll see whether San Jose's veteran core can channel Detroit in playing extremely well past their primes. Also, this is a core that hasn't been able to get it done in the playoffs together.
Ugly: Last year's results simply weren't acceptable for San Jose. They finished seventh in the conference and were easily dealt with in the first round by St. Louis. I haven't taken too close of a look to see if advanced stats indicate the team simply had bad luck, but the bottom line is that they have to prove this year that they aren't a team in decline.
Bottom Line: I wouldn't be overly shocked if this team is a bubble team again, but I see them fighting with Los Angeles for first in the division and being one of the better teams in the regular season.
Phoenix Coyotes
Good: This team's depth at defense is ridiculous. After acquiring Michalek, they now boast: OEL, Yandle, Michalek, Morris, Klesla, Schlemko, Stone, Gormley, Summers. Wow. They also made a smart free agent signing by bringing in David Moss and were able to keep Sean Burke around to continue working with Mike Smith. A full season from Antoine Vermette will also be nice.
Bad: Replacing Ray Whitney's season last year with Steve Sullivan hurts in a big way for a team that struggled to score last year as it was. This team just does not look like a playoff team offensively. Boedker is in his fourth year (common breakout year for forwards) but hasn't shown me that he will ever be a consistent offensive player. Vermette for a full season will help, but he isn't anything more than a complementary scorer. This team will simply struggle to score.
Ugly: Shane Doan could leave. It doesn't get much uglier than that. The ownership remains an absolute mystery. Honestly, the team should have moved a long time ago as much as I like the team's look. No team really has anything uglier going on.
Bottom Line: Dave Tippett has shown any team he coaches is at least a bubble team. This team will be so good defensively that I see them being in the hunt for the playoffs all year long. Still, the team will have to work hard every night and earn every inch, which can be challenging for a team that just had a long playoff run.
Dallas Stars
Good: Adding Derek Roy, Jaromir Jagr, and Ray Whitney helps this team's offense in a big way. The likes of Benn and Eriksson will be in for big seasons. Jagr's signing also brings a big name and personality to Dallas, which they haven't had since Modano and Turco.
Bad: Looking at this team's defense, I just can't see them in the playoffs. After Goligoski... absolutely nobody jumps out at me as being players who belong in a contending team's top four.
Ugly: This team's attendance recently was as ugly as it gets. I couldn't believe how empty the arena looked. Hopefully signing Jagr and now possessing a good looking offense will bring people back into the seats. Injuries are a real concern as Benn, Jagr, Roy (already out), and Lehtonen have all been susceptible in the past. And, please, can they change their hideous uniforms to something reminiscent of their former glory? Easily the worst jerseys in the league.
Bottom Line: This team will be a bubble team again, but I just don't see this team making the playoffs.
Anaheim Ducks
Good: Ryan Getzlaf can't be any worse than he was last year, so he'll bounce back. Teemu Selanne has returned. Jonas Hiller is healthy and by the end of the season last year looked like himself after a scary bought with vertigo. The team also features a surprisingly decent group of defensemen.
Bad: This team has little and less depth at forward. They need Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan, and Selanne to produce because they don't have much else.
Ugly: Justin Schultz wanted out and got out for nothing. Bobby Ryan looks like he wants out. Lubomir Visnovsky got traded, but claims he had a no no-trade clause. Perry and Getzlaf are both in contract years. Saku Koivu is penciled in as the second line center. Scary stuff.
Bottom Line: As long as the team avoids another slow start, they should be a bubble team. If they do start slow again, they don't have a shot.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Still Hope for Hockeytown?
My last post was a month ago - and was a direct reply to Detroit failing to land Ryan Suter or Zach Parise. Since then, not much has happened. Alex Semin got snagged by Carolina on a contract I would have liked to have seen Detroit offer and Detroit has apparently found Shane Doan's asking price to be too rich.
Okay, I get this. I would love another goal scorer at forward, but forward is anything but a weakness for the Wings currently. Datsyuk and Zetterberg may be aging and may be prone to occasional cold spells, but they're still two-way studs who can anchor the team's two really strong lines. Franzen is wildly inconsistent and lackadaisical (and to me, quite infuriating to watch) but he still can be a clutch scorer and is a nice piece to have in the top six with a cap hit just under $4 million. Filppula showed last year that he can put up points when provided with an opportunity. So there's four solid pieces for your top two lines. The likes of Bertuzzi, Samuelsson, and Cleary will rotate in and out depending on if they're running hot or cold. The Wings will likely be able to give one if not both of Nyquist and Brunner an opportunity in the top six, and I'm one who thinks Nyquist could challenge for the Calder next year if given the right opportunity. So, really, the Wings are in fine shape for their top nine. And they have too many forwards competing for the remaining five spots: Abdelkader, Tootoo, Miller, Eaves, Mursak, Emmerton. Possibly Holmstrom if he tries out (though I don't see him making this team). The Wings will hopefully turn one of those guys into a draft pick via a trade. We'll see.
Goaltending is currently more solid than it's been in a while. Howard is a legitimate number one guy, Gustavsson has more talent than most of our backups in recent years have had, and we currently still have MacDonald as a number three.
Defense is the true question mark. Kronwall's production will see a spike as he mans the first power play unit now, but I'm leery of him now being our only true option to shut down the opponents top offensive weapons. White might be decent enough to play on the second pairing sans Lidstrom, but not with the likes of Ericsson and Quincey. The bottom line is that Kronwall, White, Ericsson, and Quincey is not a the defensive corps on a contending team. Smith is a bit of a wild card, but I don't see him being strong enough defensively in his first season to be relied on as a shutdown guy. And Kindl is a depth defenseman at best. The Wings seemingly have to sign somebody else, but whoever that turns out to be will likely be a 6/7 guy anyway.
So, in my mind, the Wings hopes are really hanging by a thread defensively. And if there's an injury... yikes.
But, all is not lost. On paper, I would have said that New Jersey's defensive corps was weaker than Detroit's current group. By a long shot. But their coach implemented a system that allowed them to be quite good - as in playing in the Stanley Cup Finals. Babcock is considered one of the top coaches in the world by the vast majority of hockey writers, and should be able to implement a system that can allow Detroit's defense to be successful. Just look at the Mighty Ducks team that he took to the Cup finals way back. That team lacked in many areas. And, there's still a good chance in my mind that Holland makes a trade by the Winter Classic to shore up the defense. Yandle, Bouwmeester, or more likely somebody no one has mentioned. Also, it's hard to say that any team that was worse than Detroit last year is now better - maybe Chicago with Oduya for a full season. In fact, it could be argued that Detroit may now be better than Nashville.
So Wings fans, to summarize, we can take solace in the following:
Okay, I get this. I would love another goal scorer at forward, but forward is anything but a weakness for the Wings currently. Datsyuk and Zetterberg may be aging and may be prone to occasional cold spells, but they're still two-way studs who can anchor the team's two really strong lines. Franzen is wildly inconsistent and lackadaisical (and to me, quite infuriating to watch) but he still can be a clutch scorer and is a nice piece to have in the top six with a cap hit just under $4 million. Filppula showed last year that he can put up points when provided with an opportunity. So there's four solid pieces for your top two lines. The likes of Bertuzzi, Samuelsson, and Cleary will rotate in and out depending on if they're running hot or cold. The Wings will likely be able to give one if not both of Nyquist and Brunner an opportunity in the top six, and I'm one who thinks Nyquist could challenge for the Calder next year if given the right opportunity. So, really, the Wings are in fine shape for their top nine. And they have too many forwards competing for the remaining five spots: Abdelkader, Tootoo, Miller, Eaves, Mursak, Emmerton. Possibly Holmstrom if he tries out (though I don't see him making this team). The Wings will hopefully turn one of those guys into a draft pick via a trade. We'll see.
Goaltending is currently more solid than it's been in a while. Howard is a legitimate number one guy, Gustavsson has more talent than most of our backups in recent years have had, and we currently still have MacDonald as a number three.
Defense is the true question mark. Kronwall's production will see a spike as he mans the first power play unit now, but I'm leery of him now being our only true option to shut down the opponents top offensive weapons. White might be decent enough to play on the second pairing sans Lidstrom, but not with the likes of Ericsson and Quincey. The bottom line is that Kronwall, White, Ericsson, and Quincey is not a the defensive corps on a contending team. Smith is a bit of a wild card, but I don't see him being strong enough defensively in his first season to be relied on as a shutdown guy. And Kindl is a depth defenseman at best. The Wings seemingly have to sign somebody else, but whoever that turns out to be will likely be a 6/7 guy anyway.
So, in my mind, the Wings hopes are really hanging by a thread defensively. And if there's an injury... yikes.
But, all is not lost. On paper, I would have said that New Jersey's defensive corps was weaker than Detroit's current group. By a long shot. But their coach implemented a system that allowed them to be quite good - as in playing in the Stanley Cup Finals. Babcock is considered one of the top coaches in the world by the vast majority of hockey writers, and should be able to implement a system that can allow Detroit's defense to be successful. Just look at the Mighty Ducks team that he took to the Cup finals way back. That team lacked in many areas. And, there's still a good chance in my mind that Holland makes a trade by the Winter Classic to shore up the defense. Yandle, Bouwmeester, or more likely somebody no one has mentioned. Also, it's hard to say that any team that was worse than Detroit last year is now better - maybe Chicago with Oduya for a full season. In fact, it could be argued that Detroit may now be better than Nashville.
So Wings fans, to summarize, we can take solace in the following:
- Babcock is a good enough coach to figure out a system where our defense can be successful
- A team with what looked to be a lesser defense on paper just played for the Stanley Cup this past June
- A trade could still happen
- There isn't a team that finished below Detroit that is now clearly better than the Wings
It's the dog days of summer, and the CBA negotiations are draining my enthusiasm, but at some point this month I plan on previewing each division. So if you're one of the two who reads my occasional posts, stay tuned.
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