Mike Babcock left for Toronto and was replaced by Jeff Blashill who boasts an outstanding resume and has helped develop Detroit's prospects in Grand Rapids. Detroit managed to draft two high-caliber prospects in the NHL entry draft in power forward Evgeny Svechnikov and offensive defenseman Villi Saarijarvi. Then Ken Holland surprised many by admitting a major mistake and buying out center Stephen Weiss and then signing both offensive defenseman (and right shooting!) Mike Green and center Brad Richards.
Add that all to the seemingly endless discussion about just what Dylan Larkin's ceiling is, the hiring of an analytics specialist, and the hiring of Todd Nelson to coach the Grand Rapids Griffins; and you can see that there's been a lot of happy talk among Wings fans.
However, one thing that hasn't been such a pleasant conversation is the state of Detroit's goaltending. In the minor leagues, some fans were upset to see the return of Tom McCollum who will take away starts from Jared Coreau and likely keep Jake Paterson in the ECHL (a step below the AHL).
The much more heated debate though has been about the team's NHL goaltenders: Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek.
The popular belief seems to be that Mrazek will end up winning the number one job at some point this season, and that Detroit will be stuck with Howard's immovable contract. That is what it looked like at the end of the season at least when Mrazek was the team's playoff goaltender. New head coach Jeff Blashill has also won an AHL championship with Mrazek, so he would seem to be comfortable with the younger goalie.
I'm not so sure that people should be writing Jimmy Howard off though.
People forget that last year Jimmy Howard's season had two distinct sides. He was named an NHL All-Star last year for his performance during the first half of the year and people were saying he was arguably the biggest reason for Detroit's success.
Thanks to Hockey-Reference, we can see that before the All-Star game he had an above average .920 save percentage. You can also see that he sported save percentages of .929, .911, and .926 during the first three months of the season.
Now the season isn't just three months. In fact, it spans seven months.
And starting in January, Howard's save percentage tanked. This happened at the same time as he suffered a groin injury. It's pretty clear that Howard suffered after that injury.
As for his struggles in January, that could be attributed to any of the following: that he was playing injured, that it was a blip on the radar and he would recover to post something like a .911 save percentage for the month, or that it was a sign of things to come whether he got injured or not. It's such a small sample size, it's hard to take any meaning from it. So what was Howard before last season?
In 2013-2014 he struggled, posting a .910 save percentage on the season. If you remember, that was the season where the Wings were suffering so many injuries they were forced to trade for David Legwand just to get into the playoffs. A more in-depth analysis is needed, but it's entirely possible and likely that he saw a lot more high-quality scoring chances in that season than usual. What about his other years?
2012-2013: He posted a .923 save percentage and received votes for both the All-Star team and Vezina Trophy.
2011-2012: He posted a .920 save percentage and received votes for the All-Star game.
2010-2011: He suffered a "sophomore slump" and struggled mightily, posting a .908 save percentage.
2009-2010: He posted a .924 save percentage and received votes for Calder Trophy, Vezina Trophy, and the All-Star Game
Looking at all that, it's difficult to see a goalie who isn't a capable number one netminder in the NHL. So I think it's fair to give Jimmy Howard the benefit of the doubt that last year's numbers were maligned due to his injury and see what he does this year. Also, if and when Mrazek wins the number one job, I don't know if Howard would necessarily be an anchor that couldn't be traded. His career NHL numbers show that he is a quality starting goaltender.
That being said, there is some reason for caution. First off, he's on the wrong side of 30 and almost all players fall off drastically after (and actually before) the age of 30. He's proven himself to be injury prone, though I don't know of a goaltender who isn't. And goaltending overall is a very volatile position where performances year-to-year can change drastically.
Overall though, I think it's fair to expect Howard to go into the season averaging somewhere around a .920 save percentage. And if he does, along with Mrazek continuing to perform well, goaltending should be a strength for Detroit this upcoming season.
All of Jimmy Howard's statistics were found at Hockey-Reference.
