Sunday, December 6, 2015

Holy Jumpin'! FS-D's Broadcasts of Detroit Red Wings Games Are Bad

I've had a problem watching the Detroit Red Wings this year: that the local broadcast by Fox Sports Detroit has become completely awful.

The past few years I've subscribed to hockey packages that allowed me to watch any team's broadcast and learned the various nuances of many teams' local broadcasts. So I feel like I have some idea of what makes a local hockey broadcast good, average, or mediocre.

This year I didn't subscribe to any of those packages or subscribe to the cable package that provides the NHL Network and thus am relying on NBC Sports and Fox Sports Detroit for my NHL hockey. And as far as Fox Sports Detroit is concerned, it hasn't been anything worth watching. In fact, I've put the games on mute several times.

Here are some of the problems off the top of my head:

The Intermissions

The panel of Johnny Kane, Darren Elliot, Manny Legace, sometimes Chris Osgood, and even once Dave Coulier has not been very good. Local intermission talk is often mediocre for local broadcasts, so I can manage that even if this intermission panel has been pretty low bar. Plus the intermission is a time for productivity anyway.

However, Fox Sports Detroit has been doing live look ins of their intermission this year. They literally turn on the cameras on the host and commentators/analysts as they talk about what to talk about next or are just having a random conversation. Maybe it was funny and quirky the first time. But it seems to happen twice each intermission, and is awful. I'd honestly rather watch a commercial.

Plus/Minus

I've been a hockey fan since the 90's. Even then, broadcasters regularly talked about how plus/minus wasn't that great of a statistic as it can be completely random due to luck and being such a small sample size. Two decades later it's absolutely irrelevant apart from fantasy hockey leagues that still use it and that you can find it on the NHL's website, where you can find just about any statistic. There are many better stats that do what plus/minus was supposed to do such as Shot Attempt Differential (a,k.a. Corsi or Fenwick). Nobody talks about plus/minus anymore.

Nobody except for the Red Wings, that is. Ken Daniels and Mickey Redmond discuss it multiple times every game, usually when talking about how great of a player Dylan Larkin is. There are so many other and better stats to tell us that Dylan Larkin is a special player. It's ridiculous.

It should be noted that this isn't just Fox Sports Detroit here though. The beat writers that cover the Red Wings also use plus/minus as if it were still a relevant statistic. But that's another story.

Ken Daniels Doesn't Fact Check

There were two instances in the December 5th game against Nashville where Ken Daniels stated something as a fact, when it in fact was not true.

The first was when discussing Nashville forward Cody Hodgson. Daniels said something along the lines that Hodgson was bought out by Buffalo because he didn't want to play there anymore. That's simply not how/why buyouts happen. Players get bought out because the team decides they would rather pay the player and suffer a cap hit for the player to not play for them than have the player in their lineup.

The second was when talking about the rookie scoring race. Daniels repeatedly stated that Larkin was second in rookie scoring, while Arizona's Max Domi was first. This completely ignores the fact that both players are behind Chicago's Artemi Panarin. Maybe he meant goal scoring, but then he forgot to mention that New York's Oscar Lindberg was at the time tied with both players. You can find this information right on the NHL's site.

Mickey Redmond Talking about Fighting

Look, this is a bit of heated topic right now. But the facts are that fighting is diminishing in the NHL largely due to the fact that we now know some of the very serious dangers of repeated head trauma.

The other day though Mickey Redmond got excited over a fight between Brendan Smith and Arizona's Kyle Chipchura. Redmond's an old-time guy and he likes fighting. Okay. But then he showed a fight between Bob Probert and Tie Domi, asking rhetorically multiple times, "Isn't that good stuff?"

You can find the comments beginning at the 3:59 mark of this YouTube video uploaded by awood40.

The problem isn't that Mickey (and Ken Daniels) got excited about the fight. The problem is Mickey suggesting that Bob Probert's fight was good stuff.

Bob Probert died of heart failure at the age of 45 in 2010. He drank heavily (not sure if it was ever diagnosed alchocolism) and used cocaine. His brain was donated to science after his death, and it was discovered that he suffered from CTE, a degenerative brain disease caused by repeated head trauma. It's unknown how much of Probert's problems were due to the disease, but easy to speculate. You can read more about it here.

The bottom line is that it's not a happy story at all, and looking at some of the things that led to the tragic ending and cheering about them seems distasteful at best and repulsive to me.

The Bottom Line

The Detroit Red Wings have been a fascinating team to watch this year.

For the first time in ten years, they have a new head coach who is quite young but brings with him an impressive track record. They have a teenage rookie who looks like a star. They still have one of the most exciting players ever to play the game in Pavel Datsyuk. Detroit still calls itself HockeyTown. They have a lot of young and exciting players breaking into the league or developing into go-to guys. They struggled to begin the year, but have been dominant recently.

I think that as an organization, they should want as many eyes watching their product as possible. Having at least an average local broadcast would go a long way to helping with that.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

2015/2016 NHL Season Prediction: Central Division

Here are my predictions for the placement in the Central Division, which I consider the best division in the game:

1) Minnesota Wild

I really think this could be the year Minnesota puts it all together. They have been a decent team the past two years, and with Dubnyk and the continued development of young players like Granlund, Coyle, Brodin, and Dumba; I think this will be the best team during the regular season. They have four lines that can score, and three defensive pairings that are quite good. This team will surprise a lot of people.

2) St. Louis Blues

St. Louis should be the best team in their division, but then they went and traded T.J. Oshie for a worse player in Troy Brouwer. They also brought back head coach Ken Hitchcock for only a year, which isn't much a vote of confidence. This team will be good, but I think they will suffer a bit from the lack of direction.

3) Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago has shown they don't run away with the division ever, but are close to unstoppable in the playoffs. I think once again they'll find themselves without home ice advantage, but comfortably in the playoffs.

They do have a lot of distractions with the Patrick Kane mess and waiving Bryan Bickell, but this team is just too good to perform lower than this.

4) Dallas Stars

A lot of people are really high on Dallas, and they will be a really fun team to watch. Their goaltending and defense should be better and I think they'll be a wild card team, but don't see them being a top three team in the division.

5) Nashville Predators

Nashville has a legitimate star goaltender, the best defense in the league, and a good group of forwards. However, they are weak at center with Mike Ribeiro and Mike Fisher as the top two pivots. I think that will end up hurting them.

And on a personal level, I can't believe they brought back Mike Ribeiro. With the Patrick Kane mess, this got overlooked but is almost as ugly.

6) Colorado Avalanche

I don't like what I've seen from Patrick Roy as an NHL head coach, and honestly it's more likely that Colorado finishes last in the division. But this team just has so much young, high-end talent that I can't see them being last.

7) Winnipeg Jets

The Winnipeg Jets are a good team, and were a playoff team last year. They should be better as a team this year. However, the play in the toughest division and their goalies over-performed last year. This is a team with bad goaltending unless they find room for their AHL starter. And having one weakness in the Central Division could ruin a team.

Monday, October 5, 2015

2015/2016 NHL Season Predictions: Atlantic Division

I'll be posting a prediction for each division this week, if only because it's fun to look back on. I'm going to do the divisions alphabetically, so it'll be: Atlantic, Central, Metropolitan, Pacific. So, without further ado, here are my Atlantic Division predictions:


1) Tampa Bay Lightning

It was no accident that Tampa Bay went to the Stanley Cup Finals. This is a team that dominated possession throughout the year and has bona fide superstars in their prime in the likes of Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman. While the line of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat likely can't repeat their success; this team should only be better with Jonathan Drouin making an impact.

2) Detroit Red Wings

I feel like a lot of people don't realize that Detroit was a legitimately good team last year, warts and all. There's no reason to expect them to be anything but better this year. Jimmy Howard looks like he's back to form after struggling after an injury last year, and Petr Mrazek still looks like he could steal the starting job. The additions of Mike Green and Brad Richards both should help, while Tomas Tatar was one of the most under-the-radar dominant players last year. This should be a good team.

3) Montreal Canadiens

I really like Montreal's roster, especially after they acquired Jeff Petry at the trade deadline last year. And Carey Price could turn any team into a playoff contender. The problem for me with Montreal is that their head coach Michel Therrien has a track record of actively making his teams worse. He has his teams play as if they consisted entirely of third line grinders. It's no coincidence that Pittsburgh won the Stanley Cup after firing him. Still, Montreal is too talented to slip into a wild card slot.

4) Florida Panthers

Things get interesting here. Florida was great after acquiring Jaromir Jagr, and in theory their young stars (Huberdeau, Barkov, Ekblad, Bjugstad) should just be better. Still, this won't be a high scoring team and the defense after the first pairing isn't overly inspiring. They'll battle for a wild card spot.

5) Boston Bruins

It's hard to see Boston missing the playoffs a second straight year when they still have Tuukka Rask and Patrice Bergeron in their primes. But their defense is an adventure at best. Chara is no longer the player he was, and after that you've got... Torey Krug? An injured and well past his prime Dennis Seidenberg? The forward group should be good, and I could easily see this team being better than Florida and getting a wild card spot. But I just can't put them there with that defense.

6) Ottawa Senators

Ottawa has a solid goaltender in Craig Anderson, a solid and young forward group, and a superstar defenseman. Still, I don't see this team making the playoffs again this year. They remind me of the Islanders two years ago when they missed the playoffs in between two years where they made it. Also, their defense is very suspect after Erik Karlsson.

7) Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres should be really fun to watch this year, and will likely score quite a bit. But the jury is out on their starting goaltender Robin Lehner, and their defense like other teams mentioned is very suspect.

8) Toronto Maple Leafs

Mike Babcock said this year is going to be painful, and there's really no way around that. This team more or less replaced Phil Kessel with a bunch of veterans trying to prove they still belong in the league. It'll be a long year in Toronto as they continue to rebuild.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Blashill vs. Babcock: High-Event Hockey vs. Low-Event Hockey

In my last post, I talked about how I’d be looking at a difference between the coaching styles of Mike Babcock and Jeff Blashill. As someone who has viewed most Wings games that Babcock has coached and probably over a hundred games that Blashill has coached one difference has always been noticeable to my eyes: That Babcock coaches low-event hockey while Blashill coaches high-event hockey.

By events, I mean shots on goal and scoring chances. It’s important to note that the goal of both styles is to outscore the opponent; which happens by having more shots, scoring chances, and puck possession than the opponent. It’s also important to note that depending on the in-game situation (i.e. defending a lead, being down two goals) the strategy may change.


Overall, Blashill to me has always coached a more high event game.


So I wanted to see if this was true. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many AHL stats tracked. Figuring out possession numbers for AHL teams is as far as I know impossible for the general public. The best that I was able to do was to look at individual game logs for the Grand Rapids Griffins during the 2014/2015 regular season. Here are some of my findings:




During the regular season last year, the Grand Rapids Griffins averaged:


31.9 Shots For
29.5 Shots Against
61.4 Shots For and Against per game
A 2.4 Shot Differential


Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings averaged:


29.6 Shots For
28.3 Shots Against
57.9 Shots For and Against per game
A 1.3 Shot Differential



So at a quick glance, it's easy to see that last year at least Blashill's team did seemingly generate more events than the Detroit Red Wings. It would be nice if the AHL tracked missed and blocked shots so we could look at those numbers, but that is not the case. 

Even more interesting to me, is that the Griffins managed to do this while having a better shot differential than the Detroit Red Wings. This admittedly doesn't factor in the different playing styles between the AHL and NHL, but I wouldn't expect the shots generated to be that different.

Using the data from SportingCharts, we can easily compare what the Griffins did in term of shots to every NHL team last season. 

Only six NHL teams last year averaged more shots in their games (CHI, OTT, TOR, ARI, CBJ, NYI) than the Grand Rapids Griffins. Meanwhile among NHL teams last year, the Detroit Red Wings ranked 26th in this category. 

Also, only seven NHL teams had a better shot differential than what Grand Rapids generated last year (NYI, LAK, CHI, STL, NSH, CAR, MIN). 

Admittedly, a lot of this has to be taken with several grains of salt as I'm directly comparing AHL shot averages to NHL shot averages without putting in the time to see how the two correlate. I do think though that this look suggests that Blashill does seem to coach a successful high-event game, which confirms what I have seen myself. 

It'll be interesting to see how these numbers look for Detroit this season. 

If anyone wants to look at the spreadsheet that I used to gather this data, you can access it here.

Friday, September 18, 2015

Blashill vs. Babcock: A Preview

The Detroit Red Wings officially got their training camp for the 2015/2016 season underway on Friday, September 18th in Traverse City. Despite bringing in free agents Mike Green and Brad Richards over the summer, the biggest change for the team was losing head coach Mike Babcock and replacing him with Jeff Blashill.

Babcock was the head coach of the Red Wings for a ten years, an eternity in the NHL, and enjoyed a lot of success. He never missed the playoffs, won a Stanley Cup, and got to a game 7 in a second Stanley Cup Final. Before coaching the Red Wings he took an undermanned Mighty Ducks of Anaheim team to the Stanley Cup Final and while coaching the Wings he won two gold medals coaching Team Canada at the Olympics (which doesn't seem like an accomplishment until you realize the drought Team Canada had in that tournament before). In the past couple of years especially he was able to turn a less than stellar defensive group in to one of the top shot suppressing teams in the league. Mike Babcock is regarded as one of the best coaches in the league, and very well should be.

All of that being said, I was ecstatic to see him leave and to see the Wings name Jeff Blashill head coach.

I've had the luxury of being able to watch a lot of games that Jeff Blashill has coached, either live or through a stream. Blashill is in many ways a disciple of Mike Babcock, in fact it was Babcock who called him out of the blue when Blashill was coaching Western Michigan University and asked Blashill to join Detroit as an assistant coach. The next year, he was offered the head coaching job in Grand Rapids and took it, wanting to stay until he found out whether Babcock would be staying or leaving.

So, it comes as no surprise that people have pointed out many of the similarities between Babcock and Blashill. It helps that they sound very much alike and use a lot of the same hockey lingo.

But I'm more interested in what separates the two coaches, apart from the well-known fact that Blashill is a player's coach who believes in open communication while Babcock was more old-fashioned in his relationships toward the players.

Due to this, I spent a serious chunk of time gathering the shots for and shots against data for the 2014/2015 Grand Rapids Griffins. Finding stats in the AHL is hard, so the best way I found to gather the data was to pull it from the individual game logs. My next post will detail that.

Monday, August 31, 2015

Jimmy Howard: A Tale of Two Goalies

There has been a lot of excitement for the Detroit Red Wings since the 2015 playoffs ended. 

Mike Babcock left for Toronto and was replaced by Jeff Blashill who boasts an outstanding resume and has helped develop Detroit's prospects in Grand Rapids. Detroit managed to draft two high-caliber prospects in the NHL entry draft in power forward Evgeny Svechnikov and offensive defenseman Villi Saarijarvi. Then Ken Holland surprised many by admitting a major mistake and buying out center Stephen Weiss and then signing both offensive defenseman (and right shooting!) Mike Green and center Brad Richards. 

Add that all to the seemingly endless discussion about just what Dylan Larkin's ceiling is, the hiring of an analytics specialist, and the hiring of Todd Nelson to coach the Grand Rapids Griffins; and you can see that there's been a lot of happy talk among Wings fans. 

However, one thing that hasn't been such a pleasant conversation is the state of Detroit's goaltending. In the minor leagues, some fans were upset to see the return of Tom McCollum who will take away starts from Jared Coreau and likely keep Jake Paterson in the ECHL (a step below the AHL). 

The much more heated debate though has been about the team's NHL goaltenders: Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek. 

The popular belief seems to be that Mrazek will end up winning the number one job at some point this season, and that Detroit will be stuck with Howard's immovable contract. That is what it looked like at the end of the season at least when Mrazek was the team's playoff goaltender. New head coach Jeff Blashill has also won an AHL championship with Mrazek, so he would seem to be comfortable with the younger goalie. 

I'm not so sure that people should be writing Jimmy Howard off though. 

People forget that last year Jimmy Howard's season had two distinct sides. He was named an NHL All-Star last year for his performance during the first half of the year and people were saying he was arguably the biggest reason for Detroit's success.

Thanks to Hockey-Reference, we can see that before the All-Star game he had an above average .920 save percentage. You can also see that he sported save percentages of .929, .911, and .926 during the first three months of the season. 

Now the season isn't just three months. In fact, it spans seven months. 

And starting in January, Howard's save percentage tanked. This happened at the same time as he suffered a groin injury. It's pretty clear that Howard suffered after that injury.

As for his struggles in January, that could be attributed to any of the following: that he was playing injured, that it was a blip on the radar and he would recover to post something like a .911 save percentage for the month, or that it was a sign of things to come whether he got injured or not. It's such a small sample size, it's hard to take any meaning from it. So what was Howard before last season? 

In 2013-2014 he struggled, posting a .910 save percentage on the season. If you remember, that was the season where the Wings were suffering so many injuries they were forced to trade for David Legwand just to get into the playoffs. A more in-depth analysis is needed, but it's entirely possible and likely that he saw a lot more high-quality scoring chances in that season than usual. What about his other years?

2012-2013: He posted a .923 save percentage and received votes for both the All-Star team and Vezina Trophy. 

2011-2012: He posted a .920 save percentage and received votes for the All-Star game. 

2010-2011: He suffered a "sophomore slump" and struggled mightily, posting a .908 save percentage.

2009-2010: He posted a .924 save percentage and received votes for Calder Trophy, Vezina Trophy, and the All-Star Game


Looking at all that, it's difficult to see a goalie who isn't a capable number one netminder in the NHL. So I think it's fair to give Jimmy Howard the benefit of the doubt that last year's numbers were maligned due to his injury and see what he does this year. Also, if and when Mrazek wins the number one job, I don't know if Howard would necessarily be an anchor that couldn't be traded. His career NHL numbers show that he is a quality starting goaltender. 

That being said, there is some reason for caution. First off, he's on the wrong side of 30 and almost all players fall off drastically after (and actually before) the age of 30. He's proven himself to be injury prone, though I don't know of a goaltender who isn't. And goaltending overall is a very volatile position where performances year-to-year can change drastically. 

Overall though, I think it's fair to expect Howard to go into the season averaging somewhere around a .920 save percentage. And if he does, along with Mrazek continuing to perform well, goaltending should be a strength for Detroit this upcoming season. 

All of Jimmy Howard's statistics were found at Hockey-Reference


Back

Once upon a time, I used to write about NHL hockey and the Detroit Red Wings in particular semi-frequently. During the last three summers, I've also taken to writing fiction which has meant working on a series of novels that began floating around in my head back in high school, though I still haven't finished one. This summer I felt guilty about writing in general because I needed to spend my time scouring the Internet for job opportunities. 

However, writing is a significant part of who I am and as such I plan on once again writing about hockey semi-frequently. I have several posts planned for the upcoming month previewing the upcoming NHL season and what looks to be an exciting year for the Detroit Red Wings.