On the opening day of free agency, the Red Wings signed Daniel Alfredsson and Stephen Weiss. The two are seen as upgrades over Damien Brunner and Valtteri Filppula - though I think Brunner has a lot more upside over Alfredsson at this point in their careers.
Regardless, Detroit currently has 14 forwards. They will be re-signing restricted free agent forwards Joakim Andersson and Gustav Nyquist which will put them at 16. Helene St. James reports that the Wings are also still trying to re-sign Dan Cleary here, which would put the team at 17 forwards. Teams are only allowed to carry 23 players during the season, and the Wings plan on having 14 forwards and 7 defensemen. So, 2-3 forwards are going to go, the question becomes who?
Looking at Detroit's lines, their top two scoring lines will be anchored by Zetterberg/Datsyuk and Weiss/Alfredsson. Johan Franzen will be on one of those lines, while Nyquist or Abdelkader will likely be on the other. The other two lines will be centered by Darren Helm and Joakim Andersson. I'm assuming Tatar is on one of those lines as the Wings look to develop him into the scorer he has been in the AHL. That boils down to something like this:
Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Abdelkader/Nyquist
Franzen - Weiss - Alfredsson
Abdelakder/Nyquist - Helm - ?
Tatar - Andersson - ?
The Red Wings re-signed Drew Miller this past spring, so he figures to be in one of those two spots. The other spot will likely go to one of Todd Bertuzzi or Dan Cleary if he's re-signed. I personally don't see the need or benefit to re-signing Cleary as Patrick Eaves is a similar and cheaper player at a smaller cap hit.
The bottom line is that no matter how this shakes out; it looks like Jordin Tootoo, Mikael Samuelsson, and Cory Emmerton are looking unlikely to crack a healthy lineup. Either two or all three of them in fact need to go. I think Emmerton will remain on the team through training camp, so that the Wings can make sure Helm is ready. He's also a guy who they can waive without hurting their salary cap if he gets to the minors. Jordin Tootoo is a pest, and wasn't a fit with the Wings from the moment he was signed. His game just doesn't match the puck possession game Detroit plays, and he's not overly effective as a regular skater in any system. Still, he's likely a player who can be traded as teams are always looking to add physical fourth line pests. Mikael Samuelsson is the tricky one here. He was somehow given a no-trade clause per Capgeek, which means he can veto any trade. It was widely speculated that Detroit wanted to buy him out, but couldn't due to him being injured. A no-trade clause does mean that the Wings can waive him if they so choose, but makes enough that his salary will still count against the Wings even if he plays in the minors.
It's going to take a bit of wizardry to get Samuelsson off the team, and I'm interested to see how the management group does it after giving him a contract that made no sense in the first place due to his recent injury problems.
If the team gets stuck with Samuelsson, it'll likely be Patrick Eaves who will be traded. This would be unfortunate as Eaves is a speedy bottom six forward who can still score goals in the double digits and kill penalties. And, he's one of two right-handed shots on the team (the other being Alfredsson).
The bottom line is there will be some more roster movement this summer in Detroit as Ken Holland and the management team attempt to get their group of forwards down to fourteen.
Saturday, July 6, 2013
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Jimmy Howard: Detroit's Top Ten Goalie?
As I look at the season that the Detroit Red Wings put together after bowing out to Chicago, one thing sticks out to me as not being mentioned nearly enough by fans: Jimmy Howard has emerged as a top ten goaltender.
Oddly, my dad who listens to Detroit sports radio regularly, is always telling me about callers who are complaining about Howard. Huh?
This guy played behind a team that iced Kyle Quincey and Brendan Smith as their second pairing for most of the playoffs. Not surprisingly, he faced the most shots in the playoffs after the first two rounds... by far - 50 more than Henrik Lundqvist, who was second. Still, he boasted the 7th best save percentage (.924) of any goalie who played a full game in the playoffs. Not to be redundant, but he also faced the most even strength shots of any goalie through two rounds and once again - wait for it - 7th best even strength save percenatage (.938) of any goalie who played a full game in the playoffs.
Let's take another look at Detroit's defense pairings:
Kronwall - Ericsson
Quincey - Smith
Kindl - Colaiacovo/DeKeyser/Lashoff
If you don't follow the Detroit Red Wings or the NHL very closely, that's simply not a solid group defensively. Some potential there, but just not a good group.
The regular season was more of the same. Howard faced the 7th most shots of any goaltender. He tied for the 9th (.923) best save percentage among goalies who played more than 15 games (aka starting goaltenders). His regular season save percentage (.937) was 6th in the league among goalies who played more than 5 games. He also had the most shutouts of any goalie.
Then there's the eye test. Just watch the guy play. He made tremendous saves every game - every period in these playoffs.
In my books he's a top ten goalie in the league. That's probably arguable. But the bottom line is he's a darn good goalie.
I'll be posting frequently (I hope) looking back at this season and looking towards the offseason. I just thought I'd get this short post out of the way as some of the comments I've heard about Howard were irking me.
UPDATE:
This post by Patrick Hoffman is better/professional and similar to what mine says. Check it out.
UPDATE:
This post by Patrick Hoffman is better/professional and similar to what mine says. Check it out.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Trade Deadline Hits: No Moves for Detroit
The trade deadline came and went and the only move the Detroit Red Wings made was making the signing of college goaltender Jared Coreau official. Not really news, as this was reported a while ago and was more or less a technicality.
Overall, I'm not surprised. There were only two moves that I wanted to see the Wings make:
1) Trading for Jay Bouwmeester who I think is a legit top two defender.
2) Trading away Ian White
So, why didn't these two things happen? Let's take a look:
Jay Bouwmeester
The trade for Bouwmeester didn't happen because the Wings didn't want to trade a first round pick. That's understandable since last year they traded their pick for Kyle Quincey, which has so far been a major bust. In the salary cap era, it's essential to have contributions from young players on small contracts. The problem? The Wings simply aren't good with first round picks. Since 2005, Detroit's first round picks have been Jakub Kindl, Brendan Smith, Thomas McCollum, and Riley Sheahan. Now, that's a small sample size since Detroit always trades away their first round picks. But of that group, only Smith looks worthy of being a first round pick. The jury is still out on Sheahan, but I'd be stunned if he becomes anything more than a 3rd line center in the NHL. But, if the Wings want that pick, fine by me. I like Bouwmeester's game for a puck possession team, but finding a top right-handed defender would be much more ideal if that can happen as the Wings retool.
Ian White
The Wings have 9 defensemen: Kronwall, Ericsson, Colaiacovo, Quincey, Smith, Kindl, White, DeKeyser, and Lashoff. Among those players, only Ian White shoots right. That's crazy. That alone may be why Ken Holland kept White around instead of flipping him for a late pick.
When everybody is healthy, I'm not sure there's a roster spot for White. The kids (Smith, Lashoff, DeKeyser) can't improve if they don't play. Kronwall and Ericsson are locks to play. I'm sure Colaiacovo will be good enough to warrant playing. I'm not sure where White slots in, but apparently Holland sees him as more valuable on the team than flipped.
I'm also assuming he could have at least gotten a 5th round pick for the guy, but maybe there was no market.
The Bottom Line
Unless the Wings draw Minnesota or Anaheim in the first round, they're likely not winning a playoff series this spring. Thus, they're in a state of flux. They're retooling. They need to add youth. Holland valued his first round pick more than Jay Bouwmeester. In the end, I'm okay with that as long as they stick to the plan - which means some roster turnover this summer as the Wings have too many veteran bodies on the team to retool with you. But that's another blog for another time.
Overall, I'm not surprised. There were only two moves that I wanted to see the Wings make:
1) Trading for Jay Bouwmeester who I think is a legit top two defender.
2) Trading away Ian White
So, why didn't these two things happen? Let's take a look:
Jay Bouwmeester
The trade for Bouwmeester didn't happen because the Wings didn't want to trade a first round pick. That's understandable since last year they traded their pick for Kyle Quincey, which has so far been a major bust. In the salary cap era, it's essential to have contributions from young players on small contracts. The problem? The Wings simply aren't good with first round picks. Since 2005, Detroit's first round picks have been Jakub Kindl, Brendan Smith, Thomas McCollum, and Riley Sheahan. Now, that's a small sample size since Detroit always trades away their first round picks. But of that group, only Smith looks worthy of being a first round pick. The jury is still out on Sheahan, but I'd be stunned if he becomes anything more than a 3rd line center in the NHL. But, if the Wings want that pick, fine by me. I like Bouwmeester's game for a puck possession team, but finding a top right-handed defender would be much more ideal if that can happen as the Wings retool.
Ian White
The Wings have 9 defensemen: Kronwall, Ericsson, Colaiacovo, Quincey, Smith, Kindl, White, DeKeyser, and Lashoff. Among those players, only Ian White shoots right. That's crazy. That alone may be why Ken Holland kept White around instead of flipping him for a late pick.
When everybody is healthy, I'm not sure there's a roster spot for White. The kids (Smith, Lashoff, DeKeyser) can't improve if they don't play. Kronwall and Ericsson are locks to play. I'm sure Colaiacovo will be good enough to warrant playing. I'm not sure where White slots in, but apparently Holland sees him as more valuable on the team than flipped.
I'm also assuming he could have at least gotten a 5th round pick for the guy, but maybe there was no market.
The Bottom Line
Unless the Wings draw Minnesota or Anaheim in the first round, they're likely not winning a playoff series this spring. Thus, they're in a state of flux. They're retooling. They need to add youth. Holland valued his first round pick more than Jay Bouwmeester. In the end, I'm okay with that as long as they stick to the plan - which means some roster turnover this summer as the Wings have too many veteran bodies on the team to retool with you. But that's another blog for another time.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Why Detroit Should Acquire Jay Bouwmeester
The NHL trade deadline is Wednesday, April 3rd at 3 o'clock.
The Calgary Flames are in a selling mode after trading Jarome Iginla to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Various reports have quoted Jay Bouwmeester as having discussions with management about possibly being trades (he's got a no trade clause).
Meanwhile, Bob McKenzie has reported that the Wings continue to chase J-Bo. As they should.
Why? Well, right now Detroit has 9 defensemen. That's crazy. However, besides Kronwall (who's struggled defensively this season), none are top pairing guys. Ericsson, Colaiacovo (if he can stay healthy), Quincey, and White are all guys best suited for the second or third pairing and not matching up against a team's best line. Smith, Lashoff, and DeKeyser are all developing players who shouldn't have top four minutes at this point. And none project to be top pairing guys - good second pairing guys instead. Kindl is a bit of an enigma. Before this season, I'd have said he's a 6/7 guy. However he's played well this year and might be a 4/5 guy and a second pairing player.
So, let's go back to J-Bo. Nope, he's absolutely positively not a replacement for Nick Lidstrom. No, he's not the equivalent of Ryan Suter who the Wings pursued hard this summer and who in my mind should win the Norris this year. But, J-Bo is a very legitimate top-pairing shut-down defender.
If you take a look and understand the stats at behindthenet.ca, it's easy to see that Jay Bouwmeester faces top competition every night. He also starts in the defensive zone 59.4% of the time and finishes in it only 50.9% of the time. That means he's a terrific possession player and succeeds at getting the puck out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone. Also if you read this fantastic article by Steve Burtch of Pension Plan Puppets, you'll see that Bouwmeester is among the top forty in the NHL among defensemen at limiting shots. The Wings currently don't have any of the top forty players. Check out the spreadsheet he assembled if those kinds of advanced stats interest you.
Now, Bouwmeester won't provide a ton of offense. But Kronwall, his likely partner if the trade is made, does. And Smith should continue to develop offensively. The bottom line is the guy is a top pairing defender, much less the top four guy that Ken Holland has said he'll look for this deadline.
What do the Wings give up for him? Well, in the above article it's stated it won't be this year's first round pick. That's probably hard for Calgary to swallow. But, per Roger Millions (Calgary beat writer) the Flames would likely want a D. Well, Detroit has plenty of those.
So, which D? Well, let's assume Kronwall, Lashoff, Smith, and DeKeyser are untouchables. Colaiacovo has played two games this year... nobody is taking him. Quincey is injured though he's scheduled to return Thursday. Holland won't move Ericsson, and he's got a limited no-trade clause anyway. Ian White is a UFA and thus not anything more than a rental. So, that leaves Kindl.
Kindl's been a pleasant surprise this year, but hasn't found consistency and still isn't more than a second pairing, second power play unit guy. He's not enough.
The Wings would likely have to deal one of Nyquist or Tatar in this deal as well. That sucks, as those guys should be top six forwards for years to come. But Babcock refuses to use either correctly as he doesn't trust them defensively so they're not getting the minutes and quality linemates they need with the Wings. With Jarnkrok, Jurco, Frk, and Pulkkinen in the system, I'm okay with the Wings trading one of those guys for Bouwmeester.
Kindl and Nyquist/Tatar is a good package. We'd probably have to throw in a second round pick and maybe a third.
And hey, we could get those draft picks back by dealing Ian White as a rental... giving us 8 D. Just saying.
Anyway, that's where I'm at: 2nd, Kindl, Nyquist/Tatar, and a 3rd if necessary for Bouwmeester.
Sure, it'll create a cap problem, but I think that can be fixed easily enough this summer with trades and buyouts.
The Calgary Flames are in a selling mode after trading Jarome Iginla to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Various reports have quoted Jay Bouwmeester as having discussions with management about possibly being trades (he's got a no trade clause).
Meanwhile, Bob McKenzie has reported that the Wings continue to chase J-Bo. As they should.
Even tho STL added Leopold, my sense is Blues are still keen to add another D. STL and DET continue to chase CGY's Jay Bouwmeester.
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) April 1, 2013
Why? Well, right now Detroit has 9 defensemen. That's crazy. However, besides Kronwall (who's struggled defensively this season), none are top pairing guys. Ericsson, Colaiacovo (if he can stay healthy), Quincey, and White are all guys best suited for the second or third pairing and not matching up against a team's best line. Smith, Lashoff, and DeKeyser are all developing players who shouldn't have top four minutes at this point. And none project to be top pairing guys - good second pairing guys instead. Kindl is a bit of an enigma. Before this season, I'd have said he's a 6/7 guy. However he's played well this year and might be a 4/5 guy and a second pairing player.
So, let's go back to J-Bo. Nope, he's absolutely positively not a replacement for Nick Lidstrom. No, he's not the equivalent of Ryan Suter who the Wings pursued hard this summer and who in my mind should win the Norris this year. But, J-Bo is a very legitimate top-pairing shut-down defender.
If you take a look and understand the stats at behindthenet.ca, it's easy to see that Jay Bouwmeester faces top competition every night. He also starts in the defensive zone 59.4% of the time and finishes in it only 50.9% of the time. That means he's a terrific possession player and succeeds at getting the puck out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone. Also if you read this fantastic article by Steve Burtch of Pension Plan Puppets, you'll see that Bouwmeester is among the top forty in the NHL among defensemen at limiting shots. The Wings currently don't have any of the top forty players. Check out the spreadsheet he assembled if those kinds of advanced stats interest you.
Ok to anyone wanting to look at all 6 seasons of SDI data here's the link to the spreadsheet: dropbox.com/s/279fyv3jkqfu…
— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) April 1, 2013
Now, Bouwmeester won't provide a ton of offense. But Kronwall, his likely partner if the trade is made, does. And Smith should continue to develop offensively. The bottom line is the guy is a top pairing defender, much less the top four guy that Ken Holland has said he'll look for this deadline.
What do the Wings give up for him? Well, in the above article it's stated it won't be this year's first round pick. That's probably hard for Calgary to swallow. But, per Roger Millions (Calgary beat writer) the Flames would likely want a D. Well, Detroit has plenty of those.
#Wings would not have to. Yet, I believe #Flames would need a defenceman back from Detroit as part of any deal.
— Roger Millions (@RogMillions) April 1, 2013
So, which D? Well, let's assume Kronwall, Lashoff, Smith, and DeKeyser are untouchables. Colaiacovo has played two games this year... nobody is taking him. Quincey is injured though he's scheduled to return Thursday. Holland won't move Ericsson, and he's got a limited no-trade clause anyway. Ian White is a UFA and thus not anything more than a rental. So, that leaves Kindl.
Kindl's been a pleasant surprise this year, but hasn't found consistency and still isn't more than a second pairing, second power play unit guy. He's not enough.
The Wings would likely have to deal one of Nyquist or Tatar in this deal as well. That sucks, as those guys should be top six forwards for years to come. But Babcock refuses to use either correctly as he doesn't trust them defensively so they're not getting the minutes and quality linemates they need with the Wings. With Jarnkrok, Jurco, Frk, and Pulkkinen in the system, I'm okay with the Wings trading one of those guys for Bouwmeester.
Kindl and Nyquist/Tatar is a good package. We'd probably have to throw in a second round pick and maybe a third.
And hey, we could get those draft picks back by dealing Ian White as a rental... giving us 8 D. Just saying.
Anyway, that's where I'm at: 2nd, Kindl, Nyquist/Tatar, and a 3rd if necessary for Bouwmeester.
Sure, it'll create a cap problem, but I think that can be fixed easily enough this summer with trades and buyouts.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Looking for a D? 15 Quick Hits
Growing up in metro Detroit, I'm a lifelong fan of the Detroit Red Wings. I've loved the Minnesota Wild since their incarnation, largely due to what I think is the best logo in professional sports - likely due to my bias towards the north woods. I've been dating a girl from Philly for over three years and thus have adopted a rooting interesting for the Flyers.
The Detroit Red Wings, Minnesota Wild, and Philadelphia Flyers. All in need of an impact defenseman. Along with at least half of the league.
1) It's obvious in Detroit. The Wings lost Lidstrom and Stuart and their defense has been the shell of its former self that many expected. Kyle Quincey's atrocious play has been the major surprise here. Quincey was acquired by the Wings to be a minute eater to replace Brad Stuart. Instead, he has proven to be incapable of consistent stretches of good play and simply has not been a fit. Meanwhile, Colaiacovo got injured (as expected), White got injured, Smith is a rookie, Lashoff needs more time in the AHL, Kindl and Huskins are bubble defensemen, and Ericsson is a second pairing D at his absolute best. This has really all caused Kronwall to shoulder a load that he just can't carry. The dude is a top pairing D, but not without another one at his side.
2) It's also obvious in Philadelphia. Kurtis Foster and Andreas Lilja are barely even bubble defensemen; while Schenn, Meszaros, and Coburn are better suited as second pairing D in my mind. Timmonen needs more help.
3) It may not be as obvious in Minnesota, as many fans seem more concerned with the trifecta of Granlund, Heatley, and Setoguchi. Of course, there's good reason for this. Granlund and Setoguchi have been awful in terms of puck possession. Granlund ought to be sent back to Houston, he needs more time to get back to his game after returning from injury. Setoguchi has to be trade bait at this point, though expecting much of a return for him will likely lead to disappointment. Heatley meanwhile continues a downward spiral which may lead to Minnesota buying him out.
4) But, Suter has struggled. Coach Mike Yeo is in a pickle, as only Suter and Gilbert are legitimate top four defensemen. Brodin has been impressive, and definitely belongs on the team. Jared Spurgeon was expected to be fine as a top four d, but he was really struggling before injury as you can see on the awesome stats site Behind the Net. Meanwhile, none of Scandella, Falk, or Prosser are anything more than bubble defensemen at this point.
5) I expect other teams looking for help on defense include Los Angeles, Buffalo, Carolina, and St. Louis at a minimum.
6) Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski were both recent healthy scratches. Ryan Whitney has really seen his career destroyed by injuries, and shouldn't be looked at as something more than a bottom pairing/power play guy. He's become very, very slow.
7) Goligoski however remains a strong option as a top four D with upside to be a top pairing guy. Considering that Dallas traded Neal for him, any team wanting him would need to put together a serious offer. I don't see any team doing that yet (though Goligoski is from Minnesota). Later in the month, I'd think that Detroit might be willing to put together an offer.
8) Detroit doesn't have any cap problems this year, but could be in a world of hurt this summer. Jimmy Howard, Valtteri Filppula, Damien Brunner, and Ian White are all UFAs this summer and are all due raises. Besides White, they're all looking at significant raises at that. I think Danny Cleary will be gone (also a UFA), but I still see a compliance buy out this summer with Kyle Quincey or Johan Franzen as targets.
9) A lot of people will laugh out my suggestion of buying out Franzen, and while it's admittedly unlikely, I don't think it's impossible. Franzen is already 33 and has 7! years left on his deal after this season. The guy has had injuries every year and plays a physical game. He also is among the weaker skaters in the league, and has never hit 30 goals in a single season. I don't see him being worth his cap hit within the next two years, and then if he retires the Wings are caught with part of his cap hit due to it being a back-diving deal.
10) Back to defensemen, I've got to think that teams willing to trade significant assets for a top-four guy should be calling Florida about Kulikov. After a tough contract negotiation and a slow start, it can't hurt to see if he is available and what it would take to get him.
11) Roberto Luogno is just a terrific story. In fact, I think Vancouver should really think hard about trading Schneider instead of Luongo. Schneider is younger with a better contract and will fetch a better return. He doesn't have a no-trade clause. He's never won a playoff series or even been the starter for a full season. This would have to be okay with Luongo, who asked for a trade, but I think it makes a lot of sense.
12) I'm really interested by Anaheim. They're off to a terrific start, and at this point one has to think they'll be in the playoff picture through the trade deadline. So what do they do if Getzlaf and Perry haven't signed extensions? That'll be a major story to watch, as losing either to free agency for nothing will likely result in Anaheim being basement dwellers for the foreseeable future.
13) A team needing a depth defenseman should look at Toronto's Mike Komisarek. I think the guy could be help on a third pairing and the PK still.
14) Apart from the guys I've listed, Keith Yandle is likely the other significant defenseman who could be available. I think he'll be the hardest to acquire though, as Phoenix is looking to win now.
15) Washington and Buffalo are both a mess and both have GMs who have been with the teams for over a decade. With Brian Burke being available, I really think one of these guys has to get the axe.
The Detroit Red Wings, Minnesota Wild, and Philadelphia Flyers. All in need of an impact defenseman. Along with at least half of the league.
1) It's obvious in Detroit. The Wings lost Lidstrom and Stuart and their defense has been the shell of its former self that many expected. Kyle Quincey's atrocious play has been the major surprise here. Quincey was acquired by the Wings to be a minute eater to replace Brad Stuart. Instead, he has proven to be incapable of consistent stretches of good play and simply has not been a fit. Meanwhile, Colaiacovo got injured (as expected), White got injured, Smith is a rookie, Lashoff needs more time in the AHL, Kindl and Huskins are bubble defensemen, and Ericsson is a second pairing D at his absolute best. This has really all caused Kronwall to shoulder a load that he just can't carry. The dude is a top pairing D, but not without another one at his side.
2) It's also obvious in Philadelphia. Kurtis Foster and Andreas Lilja are barely even bubble defensemen; while Schenn, Meszaros, and Coburn are better suited as second pairing D in my mind. Timmonen needs more help.
3) It may not be as obvious in Minnesota, as many fans seem more concerned with the trifecta of Granlund, Heatley, and Setoguchi. Of course, there's good reason for this. Granlund and Setoguchi have been awful in terms of puck possession. Granlund ought to be sent back to Houston, he needs more time to get back to his game after returning from injury. Setoguchi has to be trade bait at this point, though expecting much of a return for him will likely lead to disappointment. Heatley meanwhile continues a downward spiral which may lead to Minnesota buying him out.
4) But, Suter has struggled. Coach Mike Yeo is in a pickle, as only Suter and Gilbert are legitimate top four defensemen. Brodin has been impressive, and definitely belongs on the team. Jared Spurgeon was expected to be fine as a top four d, but he was really struggling before injury as you can see on the awesome stats site Behind the Net. Meanwhile, none of Scandella, Falk, or Prosser are anything more than bubble defensemen at this point.
5) I expect other teams looking for help on defense include Los Angeles, Buffalo, Carolina, and St. Louis at a minimum.
6) Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski were both recent healthy scratches. Ryan Whitney has really seen his career destroyed by injuries, and shouldn't be looked at as something more than a bottom pairing/power play guy. He's become very, very slow.
7) Goligoski however remains a strong option as a top four D with upside to be a top pairing guy. Considering that Dallas traded Neal for him, any team wanting him would need to put together a serious offer. I don't see any team doing that yet (though Goligoski is from Minnesota). Later in the month, I'd think that Detroit might be willing to put together an offer.
8) Detroit doesn't have any cap problems this year, but could be in a world of hurt this summer. Jimmy Howard, Valtteri Filppula, Damien Brunner, and Ian White are all UFAs this summer and are all due raises. Besides White, they're all looking at significant raises at that. I think Danny Cleary will be gone (also a UFA), but I still see a compliance buy out this summer with Kyle Quincey or Johan Franzen as targets.
9) A lot of people will laugh out my suggestion of buying out Franzen, and while it's admittedly unlikely, I don't think it's impossible. Franzen is already 33 and has 7! years left on his deal after this season. The guy has had injuries every year and plays a physical game. He also is among the weaker skaters in the league, and has never hit 30 goals in a single season. I don't see him being worth his cap hit within the next two years, and then if he retires the Wings are caught with part of his cap hit due to it being a back-diving deal.
10) Back to defensemen, I've got to think that teams willing to trade significant assets for a top-four guy should be calling Florida about Kulikov. After a tough contract negotiation and a slow start, it can't hurt to see if he is available and what it would take to get him.
11) Roberto Luogno is just a terrific story. In fact, I think Vancouver should really think hard about trading Schneider instead of Luongo. Schneider is younger with a better contract and will fetch a better return. He doesn't have a no-trade clause. He's never won a playoff series or even been the starter for a full season. This would have to be okay with Luongo, who asked for a trade, but I think it makes a lot of sense.
12) I'm really interested by Anaheim. They're off to a terrific start, and at this point one has to think they'll be in the playoff picture through the trade deadline. So what do they do if Getzlaf and Perry haven't signed extensions? That'll be a major story to watch, as losing either to free agency for nothing will likely result in Anaheim being basement dwellers for the foreseeable future.
13) A team needing a depth defenseman should look at Toronto's Mike Komisarek. I think the guy could be help on a third pairing and the PK still.
14) Apart from the guys I've listed, Keith Yandle is likely the other significant defenseman who could be available. I think he'll be the hardest to acquire though, as Phoenix is looking to win now.
15) Washington and Buffalo are both a mess and both have GMs who have been with the teams for over a decade. With Brian Burke being available, I really think one of these guys has to get the axe.
Predicting Next Year's US Olympic Hockey Roster
I'm working under the assumption that NHL players will be participating in next winter's Olympics in Sochi, Russia. After a Silver Medal at the last Winter Olympics, and a Gold Medal at this year's World Juniors, I think that Team USA will be set up for a run at Gold next year. There are a lot of quality players for Team USA to choose from next year, so let's get this thing start.
Goalies
Without Ryan Miller in '10 and Gibson at the past World Juniors, it's likely that Team USA wouldn't have a medal. However, great goaltending is something I think we can expect again at next year's Olympics for the US. I think the two goaltenders will be Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Quick and Olympic veteran Ryan Miller with Quick being the starter. Quick showed in the playoffs last year how he can step his game up when it matters, and has been consistently excellent for a couple of years now. The team will carry a third goalie as insurance, and have a variety of options including Cory Schneider (VAN), Jimmy Howard (DET), and the wildcard: Tim Thomas (BOS) who claims to want play NHL hockey next year just to make the team. I think they'll carry Schneider as the third goalie, just to give him the experience. The bottom line is as long as Quick is healthy, goaltending should be a strength for the team..
Defense
In my mind, there's only one lock on defense and that's Minnesota defender Ryan Suter who is an Olympic veteran. The defense will be drastically different from the last incarnation with Rafalski retired and Whitney and Gleason likely no longer being part of the discussion. Olympic veterans Brooks Orpik, Jack Johnson, and Erik Johnson will all likely be considered but I think only one of them - Brooks Orpik or Jack Johnson - will be carried as an extra D. In my mind, Kevin Shattenkirk is an obvious guy to replace the puck movement Brian Rafalski brought. Dustin Byfuglien and Keith Yandle are other defensemen who can bring the offense and I think will make the team. I then think Ryan McDonagh and Justin Faulk will make the team to balance the pairings out with guys who are especially strong in their own end. Apart from the names already mentioned, I think Zach Bogosian and Alex Goligoski could also be options though both would have to really impress.
Forwards
There's going to be a lot of returning players at forward including: Zach Parise, Patrick Kane, Ryan Kesler, David Backes, Ryan Callahan, Dustin Brown, Bobby Ryan, Phil Kessel, and Joe Pavelski. Entering the conversation this time around are Max Pacioretty, Derek Stepan, James van Riemsdyk, and T.J. Oshie. I think these will be the forwards with the likes of Paul Stastny, Ryan Malone, and Blake Wheeler all also being in the conversation.
The Team
Parise - Kesler - Kane
van Riemsdyk - Pavelski - Ryan
Brown - Backes - Callahan
Pacioretty - Stepan - Kessel
Suter - Faulk
McDonagh - Shattenkirk
Yandle - Byfuglien
Quick - Miller
(Oshie - Schneider - Orpik)
I like the looks of that team and think the roster will look pretty similar to that next year at the Olympics. What do you think?
Goalies
Without Ryan Miller in '10 and Gibson at the past World Juniors, it's likely that Team USA wouldn't have a medal. However, great goaltending is something I think we can expect again at next year's Olympics for the US. I think the two goaltenders will be Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Quick and Olympic veteran Ryan Miller with Quick being the starter. Quick showed in the playoffs last year how he can step his game up when it matters, and has been consistently excellent for a couple of years now. The team will carry a third goalie as insurance, and have a variety of options including Cory Schneider (VAN), Jimmy Howard (DET), and the wildcard: Tim Thomas (BOS) who claims to want play NHL hockey next year just to make the team. I think they'll carry Schneider as the third goalie, just to give him the experience. The bottom line is as long as Quick is healthy, goaltending should be a strength for the team..
Defense
In my mind, there's only one lock on defense and that's Minnesota defender Ryan Suter who is an Olympic veteran. The defense will be drastically different from the last incarnation with Rafalski retired and Whitney and Gleason likely no longer being part of the discussion. Olympic veterans Brooks Orpik, Jack Johnson, and Erik Johnson will all likely be considered but I think only one of them - Brooks Orpik or Jack Johnson - will be carried as an extra D. In my mind, Kevin Shattenkirk is an obvious guy to replace the puck movement Brian Rafalski brought. Dustin Byfuglien and Keith Yandle are other defensemen who can bring the offense and I think will make the team. I then think Ryan McDonagh and Justin Faulk will make the team to balance the pairings out with guys who are especially strong in their own end. Apart from the names already mentioned, I think Zach Bogosian and Alex Goligoski could also be options though both would have to really impress.
Forwards
There's going to be a lot of returning players at forward including: Zach Parise, Patrick Kane, Ryan Kesler, David Backes, Ryan Callahan, Dustin Brown, Bobby Ryan, Phil Kessel, and Joe Pavelski. Entering the conversation this time around are Max Pacioretty, Derek Stepan, James van Riemsdyk, and T.J. Oshie. I think these will be the forwards with the likes of Paul Stastny, Ryan Malone, and Blake Wheeler all also being in the conversation.
The Team
Parise - Kesler - Kane
van Riemsdyk - Pavelski - Ryan
Brown - Backes - Callahan
Pacioretty - Stepan - Kessel
Suter - Faulk
McDonagh - Shattenkirk
Yandle - Byfuglien
Quick - Miller
(Oshie - Schneider - Orpik)
I like the looks of that team and think the roster will look pretty similar to that next year at the Olympics. What do you think?
Saturday, February 2, 2013
All-Star Solution?
One of the few benefits of this shortened season is the lack of the All-Star Game. The All-Star Game is something that most "hockey people" don't like, in fact most watch it just to make jokes on Twitter. I know this because I follow hundreds of "hockey people" on Twitter. Most of my friends however are casual fans, and they also don't really care about the All-Star Game. The bottom line is that the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the Winter Classic rightfully are the events that fans care about.
The All-Star Game may also be becoming more rare. I'm expecting the NHL to continue its participation in the Winter Olympics which take place every four years. Now, several people including Elliotte Friedman are reporting that a World Cup of Hockey could also take place every four years in the winter. Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy, expertly covers it here.
So, that's 2 out of ever four years that the All-Star Game will be eliminated. The game isn't about to disappear in those other two years. It's important to sponsors and host cities. However, I've got an idea to make it a bit more interesting in the future and it revolves around the NHL's proposed realignment last year.
My idea is to turn the event into a tournament. Each of the four conferences would get an All-Star Team. Friday night would be the Skills Competition, with the four teams competing for seeding. Saturday would feature two games; one between the first seeded team and the fourth seeded team; the second between the second seeded team and third seeded team. The winning two teams would then play one final game Sunday.
This would allow more players to participate, and create two more games for the NHL to make money on. It would very much become a weekend event and could be called the All-Star Tournament. It could help with the philosophy of making the NHL more event oriented.
The cons would be some players would make the All-Star tournament who many may not consider to be stars - but I don't really think that's a problem as there's always ton of great players who don't get invited. The other con would be the recently added fantasy draft would no longer work.
These are just some initial thoughts about what to do with the All-Star Game. What do you think?
The All-Star Game may also be becoming more rare. I'm expecting the NHL to continue its participation in the Winter Olympics which take place every four years. Now, several people including Elliotte Friedman are reporting that a World Cup of Hockey could also take place every four years in the winter. Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy, expertly covers it here.
So, that's 2 out of ever four years that the All-Star Game will be eliminated. The game isn't about to disappear in those other two years. It's important to sponsors and host cities. However, I've got an idea to make it a bit more interesting in the future and it revolves around the NHL's proposed realignment last year.
My idea is to turn the event into a tournament. Each of the four conferences would get an All-Star Team. Friday night would be the Skills Competition, with the four teams competing for seeding. Saturday would feature two games; one between the first seeded team and the fourth seeded team; the second between the second seeded team and third seeded team. The winning two teams would then play one final game Sunday.
This would allow more players to participate, and create two more games for the NHL to make money on. It would very much become a weekend event and could be called the All-Star Tournament. It could help with the philosophy of making the NHL more event oriented.
The cons would be some players would make the All-Star tournament who many may not consider to be stars - but I don't really think that's a problem as there's always ton of great players who don't get invited. The other con would be the recently added fantasy draft would no longer work.
These are just some initial thoughts about what to do with the All-Star Game. What do you think?
Monday, January 28, 2013
15 Quick Hits: Thoughts from Week 1
The first week of any season is too early to make judgments, but after the lockout, it's never too early to make some hockey observations. So, here's 15:
1) Chicago has been good. Last year, there always seemed to be drama with this team. A lot of that drama has disappeared right away this season: Patrick Kane is playing like a superstar; Crawford is rebounding from a sophomore slump; the defense is clicking.
2) On that note, I don't plan on missing a Chicago/St. Louis game this year. Those games are going to be awesome.
3) Chicago may have surprised me; San Jose has stunned me. I really thought that San Jose was going to regress this year. They're a veteran team with several injuries to their defensive corps. However, they've been phenomenal. Unless LA quickly turns it around, I think a hot start like San Jose's may lead them to winning their division even though I expect them to fall off.
4) I don't think Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Washington, or Vancouver should be panicking yet. On the other side, I don't expect Florida, Columbus, Calgary, Toronto, or even Phoenix to be in the playoff hunt come April.
5) Columbus and Calgary are obvious with obvious issues. Toronto should be too, with a youth movement going on and the team's young and inexperienced players (Kadri, Scrivens, Gardiner, Kostka, Reimer, Frattin, van Riemsdyk) learning how to win at the NHL level. However, Florida and Phoenix both won their divisions last year.
6) I feel as if Florida were the benefactors of good luck last year. Their division was weak, and their goaltenders performed better than should be expected. This is an organization very much in a continuing rebuild, and another top pick to go with the likes of Huberdeau, Gudbranson, Markstrom, etc. shouldn't be seen as a negative.
7) Phoenix is a different beast however. They were no fluke last year, having made the playoffs three years straight. Then they marched into the third round of the playoffs. Mike Smith played over his head last year, but his numbers should still be solid this year with Tippett's system. I don't see Phoenix having a terrible season either, but with Dallas and Anaheim likely being better this year I just don't see them overcoming a slow start to make the playoffs.
8) It's been rumored in the past, but Phoenix would do well to put top defender Keith Yandle on the trade market. A bare minimum of Philadelphia, Detroit, Ottawa, and Los Angeles are known to be looking to add to their defense. Teams like St. Louis, Minnesota, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Nashville, and Dallas could be inclined to do so as well. Phoenix has a lot of good defensemen in their organization, and moving Yandle could easily net them a top six forward that they need.
9) Toronto, Calgary, and Columbus could stand to benefit in the trade market as well. Toronto and Columbus are both deepest on the blue line, while a losing season could see Calgary move Jay Bouwmeester who Philadelphia, Detroit, and St. Louis have been rumored to have interest in in the past.
10) After the lockout, the holdouts of PK Subban, Jamie Benn, and Ryan O'Reilly bother me. Dallas did well to lock up Benn, but Subban and O'Reilly remain without a contract. Both were key players for their teams last year, and bitter fans can't be happy to see that neither guy is playing for their teams or being used to bring in a player who can via trade.
11) Minnesota's power play overall has looked very impressive to me. However, the rest of their play has not. Only their first line is generating any kind of offense, and Brodin and Scandella should be a third pairing at this stage instead of a second pairing. With plenty of forwards in the AHL knocking on the door (Zucker, Palmieri, Coyle, Larsson, Fontaine), I'm expecting this team could be active.
12) Detroit and Nashville are going to be in tough this year. They're clearly a step behind St. Louis and Chicago in the division, and how many times can four teams from the same division make the playoffs?
13) I still hold that Ilya Bryzgalov has not been the problem for Philadelphia this season. In my mind, he's had one bad game and has kept the team in every other game he's played. They need help on their blue line, not in goal.
14) Top rookies from the first week: Tarasenko (STL), Schultz (EDM), Conacher (TBL). Mikael Granlund needs to really step up his game, and it's a shame that Brunner is too old to be a rookie.
15) While some teams look like they are in need of moves, I don't really expect to see trades until at least the third week.
1) Chicago has been good. Last year, there always seemed to be drama with this team. A lot of that drama has disappeared right away this season: Patrick Kane is playing like a superstar; Crawford is rebounding from a sophomore slump; the defense is clicking.
2) On that note, I don't plan on missing a Chicago/St. Louis game this year. Those games are going to be awesome.
3) Chicago may have surprised me; San Jose has stunned me. I really thought that San Jose was going to regress this year. They're a veteran team with several injuries to their defensive corps. However, they've been phenomenal. Unless LA quickly turns it around, I think a hot start like San Jose's may lead them to winning their division even though I expect them to fall off.
4) I don't think Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Washington, or Vancouver should be panicking yet. On the other side, I don't expect Florida, Columbus, Calgary, Toronto, or even Phoenix to be in the playoff hunt come April.
5) Columbus and Calgary are obvious with obvious issues. Toronto should be too, with a youth movement going on and the team's young and inexperienced players (Kadri, Scrivens, Gardiner, Kostka, Reimer, Frattin, van Riemsdyk) learning how to win at the NHL level. However, Florida and Phoenix both won their divisions last year.
6) I feel as if Florida were the benefactors of good luck last year. Their division was weak, and their goaltenders performed better than should be expected. This is an organization very much in a continuing rebuild, and another top pick to go with the likes of Huberdeau, Gudbranson, Markstrom, etc. shouldn't be seen as a negative.
7) Phoenix is a different beast however. They were no fluke last year, having made the playoffs three years straight. Then they marched into the third round of the playoffs. Mike Smith played over his head last year, but his numbers should still be solid this year with Tippett's system. I don't see Phoenix having a terrible season either, but with Dallas and Anaheim likely being better this year I just don't see them overcoming a slow start to make the playoffs.
8) It's been rumored in the past, but Phoenix would do well to put top defender Keith Yandle on the trade market. A bare minimum of Philadelphia, Detroit, Ottawa, and Los Angeles are known to be looking to add to their defense. Teams like St. Louis, Minnesota, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Nashville, and Dallas could be inclined to do so as well. Phoenix has a lot of good defensemen in their organization, and moving Yandle could easily net them a top six forward that they need.
9) Toronto, Calgary, and Columbus could stand to benefit in the trade market as well. Toronto and Columbus are both deepest on the blue line, while a losing season could see Calgary move Jay Bouwmeester who Philadelphia, Detroit, and St. Louis have been rumored to have interest in in the past.
10) After the lockout, the holdouts of PK Subban, Jamie Benn, and Ryan O'Reilly bother me. Dallas did well to lock up Benn, but Subban and O'Reilly remain without a contract. Both were key players for their teams last year, and bitter fans can't be happy to see that neither guy is playing for their teams or being used to bring in a player who can via trade.
11) Minnesota's power play overall has looked very impressive to me. However, the rest of their play has not. Only their first line is generating any kind of offense, and Brodin and Scandella should be a third pairing at this stage instead of a second pairing. With plenty of forwards in the AHL knocking on the door (Zucker, Palmieri, Coyle, Larsson, Fontaine), I'm expecting this team could be active.
12) Detroit and Nashville are going to be in tough this year. They're clearly a step behind St. Louis and Chicago in the division, and how many times can four teams from the same division make the playoffs?
13) I still hold that Ilya Bryzgalov has not been the problem for Philadelphia this season. In my mind, he's had one bad game and has kept the team in every other game he's played. They need help on their blue line, not in goal.
14) Top rookies from the first week: Tarasenko (STL), Schultz (EDM), Conacher (TBL). Mikael Granlund needs to really step up his game, and it's a shame that Brunner is too old to be a rookie.
15) While some teams look like they are in need of moves, I don't really expect to see trades until at least the third week.
Monday, January 21, 2013
15 Thoughts from Opening Weekend
1) Pittsburgh made a statement by opening up on the road and beating rivals Philadelphia and New York. I've been of the mind that either Pittsburgh or New York will come out of the East and win the cup this year, and while it's just the first two games; every point counts and finishing first in the division will benefit whoever gets it.
2) I knew St. Louis was going to be good, but I wasn't prepared for Chicago to come out flying the way they have. St. Louis/Chicago games could be really fun to watch this year.
3) I don't think there's a better story in the NHL right now than Minnesota Wild backup goaltender, Josh Harding. He was diagnosed with MS this fall, and posts a shutout in his first game since the diagnosis. I'm really rooting for this guy.
4) Mikael Granlund (despite a goal) and Justin Schultz did not look nearly as good right off the bat as other rookies like Tarasenko and Huberdeau. I still say both will end up being candidates for rookie of the year.
5) Vancouver needs to trade Roberto Luongo. The situation will quickly turn toxic with the media and the fans, as proven this weekend. The time to trade him is now, as Vancouver needs help at forward. I wonder if they'll need to get creative and do something like a three-way trade in order for everyone to get fair value.
6) Detroit and Philadelphia are going to be looking for help at defense this season. While Minnesota has looked tremendous, I wouldn't be surprised to see them added to that list. I think Carolina will also need another top four D if they are serious about the playoffs.
7) Sven Baertschi of Calgary is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Calgary really needs to start building around a young core.
8) The three remaining RFAs - Benn, Subban, O'Reilly - are really missed by their respective teams. Based on what various reporters are saying, I'd expect Benn to sign by the weekend, but Subban and O'Reilly could hold out for a while which would really affect their teams in the standings.
9) For me, one of the key teams to watch this season will be Anaheim. It'll likely be Teemu Selanne's last year in the league. Getzlaf and Perry are UFAs this summer. Ryan has been in trade rumors for over a year. If this team doesn't do well, I could see a lot of big trades here. However, they could also really turn it around under coach Bruce Boudreau.
10) Things have so far worked pretty well for Minnesota and their big offseason additions. Buffalo looked good in their first game. Meanwhile, it's been mixed results for Dallas and Tampa and one poor result for Carolina. I think those five teams made the biggest changes this summer, so it'll be interesting to see how they fare this year, especially with the short training camp.
11) Tuukka Rask is primed to be a top goaltender for a long time, especially playing for the defensive juggernaut that is Boston. I'm glad I have him on both of my fantasy teams.
12) I'm interested to see what kind of identity Columbus develops this year. They also made a lot of changes, but have no expectations. This season will decide the direction they head in as an organization.
13) Only two shootouts in opening weekend. I really hope that shootouts are more rare this season.
14) It was a great start for a lot of veteran players like Jagr, Whitney, and Selanne. I'm interested to see if they can keep it up in the shortened season.
15) There was definitely some rust this weekend. I expect the games to be a lot faster by next weekend.
2) I knew St. Louis was going to be good, but I wasn't prepared for Chicago to come out flying the way they have. St. Louis/Chicago games could be really fun to watch this year.
3) I don't think there's a better story in the NHL right now than Minnesota Wild backup goaltender, Josh Harding. He was diagnosed with MS this fall, and posts a shutout in his first game since the diagnosis. I'm really rooting for this guy.
4) Mikael Granlund (despite a goal) and Justin Schultz did not look nearly as good right off the bat as other rookies like Tarasenko and Huberdeau. I still say both will end up being candidates for rookie of the year.
5) Vancouver needs to trade Roberto Luongo. The situation will quickly turn toxic with the media and the fans, as proven this weekend. The time to trade him is now, as Vancouver needs help at forward. I wonder if they'll need to get creative and do something like a three-way trade in order for everyone to get fair value.
6) Detroit and Philadelphia are going to be looking for help at defense this season. While Minnesota has looked tremendous, I wouldn't be surprised to see them added to that list. I think Carolina will also need another top four D if they are serious about the playoffs.
7) Sven Baertschi of Calgary is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Calgary really needs to start building around a young core.
8) The three remaining RFAs - Benn, Subban, O'Reilly - are really missed by their respective teams. Based on what various reporters are saying, I'd expect Benn to sign by the weekend, but Subban and O'Reilly could hold out for a while which would really affect their teams in the standings.
9) For me, one of the key teams to watch this season will be Anaheim. It'll likely be Teemu Selanne's last year in the league. Getzlaf and Perry are UFAs this summer. Ryan has been in trade rumors for over a year. If this team doesn't do well, I could see a lot of big trades here. However, they could also really turn it around under coach Bruce Boudreau.
10) Things have so far worked pretty well for Minnesota and their big offseason additions. Buffalo looked good in their first game. Meanwhile, it's been mixed results for Dallas and Tampa and one poor result for Carolina. I think those five teams made the biggest changes this summer, so it'll be interesting to see how they fare this year, especially with the short training camp.
11) Tuukka Rask is primed to be a top goaltender for a long time, especially playing for the defensive juggernaut that is Boston. I'm glad I have him on both of my fantasy teams.
12) I'm interested to see what kind of identity Columbus develops this year. They also made a lot of changes, but have no expectations. This season will decide the direction they head in as an organization.
13) Only two shootouts in opening weekend. I really hope that shootouts are more rare this season.
14) It was a great start for a lot of veteran players like Jagr, Whitney, and Selanne. I'm interested to see if they can keep it up in the shortened season.
15) There was definitely some rust this weekend. I expect the games to be a lot faster by next weekend.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Bryzgalov's Back - But Where's the D?
Everybody who follows hockey knows about the disaster that was Ilya Bryzgalov's season last year. He was creating all kinds of controversy and playing quite poorly. However, he turned it around in the last couple of months last season; and though the numbers don't agree, I'd argue he was as decent in the playoffs, showing flashes of brilliance and flashes of poor goaltending.
Bryzgalov was the story on the minds of most this year when thinking about how the Flyers would do this season. Well, that needs to change because after two games Bryzgalov has shown that he will be a fine goaltender. Maybe he won't steal as many games as he should at his price point, but it sure doesn't look like he's going to be the problem.
Instead, the Flyers are going to need to rethink their defensive corps. After Kimmo Timmonen, the team doesn't have a true puck mover on the back end. They lost that in letting Matt Carle go in free agency. Meszaros and Coburn are solid enough, but this is a team built for the counterattack and to control the puck in the offensive zone. Meszaros, Coburn, Schenn, Foster, Grossmann, and Gervais (and Lilja who is in the minors) aren't going to be able to do that. Not unless they're paired with a puck mover.
The worst part for Flyers fans is that I'm not sure if they've even got the assets to trade for a puck moving D if one were to become available. They're not going to part with their core forwards; they have an empty cupboard of prospects; they need their picks; and I don't see a D for a D deal being made.
I still think the Flyers are a playoff team - their forwards are awesome and as I said, Bryzgalov will be solid - but without adding some D that fit with the team's up-tempo style, I don't see them making any noise in the playoffs this year.
Bryzgalov was the story on the minds of most this year when thinking about how the Flyers would do this season. Well, that needs to change because after two games Bryzgalov has shown that he will be a fine goaltender. Maybe he won't steal as many games as he should at his price point, but it sure doesn't look like he's going to be the problem.
Instead, the Flyers are going to need to rethink their defensive corps. After Kimmo Timmonen, the team doesn't have a true puck mover on the back end. They lost that in letting Matt Carle go in free agency. Meszaros and Coburn are solid enough, but this is a team built for the counterattack and to control the puck in the offensive zone. Meszaros, Coburn, Schenn, Foster, Grossmann, and Gervais (and Lilja who is in the minors) aren't going to be able to do that. Not unless they're paired with a puck mover.
The worst part for Flyers fans is that I'm not sure if they've even got the assets to trade for a puck moving D if one were to become available. They're not going to part with their core forwards; they have an empty cupboard of prospects; they need their picks; and I don't see a D for a D deal being made.
I still think the Flyers are a playoff team - their forwards are awesome and as I said, Bryzgalov will be solid - but without adding some D that fit with the team's up-tempo style, I don't see them making any noise in the playoffs this year.
Quick Thoughts on Game 1 for the Wings
Last night was ugly. But, St. Louis is the team to beat in the west in my opinion and the Wings were at their worst. Let's give them a mulligan.
Even so, I continue to not like the Tootoo and Samuelsson signings. Tootoo simply does not fit this team, and Samuelsson is taking the spot of one of Nyquist or Tatar who are both ready to contribute in the NHL.
But the biggest problem last night was that Kyle Quincey is a shell of the player that the Wings thought they were getting. He was bad when we acquired him last year, and last night he was awful. In the "defense by committee" the Wings are running, he can't be that bad.
But I'm going to see what the next two games against clubs the Wings should handily beat bring before making too many judgments.
15 Eastern Conference Predictions
I know that I'm a bit late on this, but here's 15 predictions for the East:
1) The Stanley Cup Champion will either be the New York Rangers or the Pittsburgh Penguins.
2) Bryzgalov will have a major bounce back year, but will still have a high GAA due to Philly's weak defense.
3) The top 5 scorers will all be from the East.
4) New Jersey and Florida will miss the playoffs.
5) Tukka Rask will challenge Henrik Lundqvist as the best goalie in the East.
6) Three teams from the Southeast will make the playoffs.
7) Rick DiPietro will play in at least 15 games.
8) Tyler Ennis will emerge as a legitimate first line scoring forward.
9) On the other hand, Cody Hodgson will struggle immensely.
10) PK Subban will hold out the longer than Benn and O'Reilly.
11) By the end of the season, the Schenn/JvR trade will look a lot less lopsided.
12) Jason Arnott will sign with Washington or New Jersey.
13) Anders Lindback will be the best goalie in the Southeast
14) Pittsburgh will find a winger for Crosby other than Dupuis and Kunitz.
15) My prediction standings:
1. PIT
2. BOS
3. TB
4. NYR
5. WSH
6. PHI
7. OTT
8. CAR
9. FLA
10. BUF
11. NJ
12. MTL
13. WPG
14. TOR
15. NYI
Thursday, January 17, 2013
15 Predictions - Western Conference
So, with my school randomly closed with a building issue, I decided that today would be a great day to analyze where each team will place in the standings this year. Then I realized with how close teams are, that it's going to be impossible. I'll still do it, but instead here are 15 predictions for the Western Conference:
- The Calder Trophy (rookie of the year) comes down to three kids in the Western Conference: Vladimir Tarasenko (STL), Mikael Granlund (MIN), and Justin Schultz (EDM).
- One of Phoenix or Nashville misses the playoffs.
- Two of Edmonton, Colorado, and Minnesota make the playoffs.
- Anaheim signs both Perry and Getzlaf to long-term contracts and then trades Bobby Ryan.
- The Canucks do in fact trade Roberto Luongo this year.
- Corey Crawford of Chicago bounces back from a sophomore slump much in the same fashion that Jimmy Howard of Detroit did.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets will be much more competitive, but their goaltending will cause them to have the first overall pick and draft Nathan MacKinnon.
- Gabriel Landeskog proves to be a worthy choice for captain of Colorado, despite being the youngest ever captain in the NHL.
- Damien Brunner will be a legitimate scoring forward for Detroit.
- Alex Pietrangelo will win the Norris Trophy (best defenseman in the league).
- The Calgary Flames finish as the second worst team in the Western Conference and trade Jarome Iginla.
- Josh Harding and Devan Dubnyk emerge as the starting goaltenders for their respective clubs (MIN and EDM).
- Jonathan Quick and Jaroslav Halak are nominated for the Vezina Trophy (best goaltender in the league).
- Colorado's Ryan O'Reilly holds out for the entire year.
- Jamie Benn (Dallas) signs and is top 10 in league scoring this year.
And just for the fun of being wrong, here are my predictions for the standings:
- Los Angeles Kings
- St. Louis Blues
- Vancouver Canucks
- Chicago Blackhawks
- Detroit Red Wings
- Colorado Avalanche
- Phoenix Coyotes
- Minnesota Wild
- San Jose Sharks
- Nashville Predators
- Edmonton Oilers
- Anaheim Ducks
- Dallas Stars
- Calgary Flames
- Columbus Blue Jackets
Sunday, January 6, 2013
It's Over! First Order of Business for NHL Teams
Early this morning, the NHL lockout thankfully came to a conclusion. It'll likely take until Tuesday for all of the paperwork to be finalized and voted on, however once that happens several teams will have some very important business to take care of right away, as several key players remain unsigned as restricted free agents. They are: (per CapGeek.com)
Ryan O'Reilly - Colorado
Jamie Benn - Dallas
Dmitry Kulikov - Florida
P.K. Subban - Montreal
Micahel Del Zotto - New York Rangers
Cody Franson - Toronto
I full expect all of these players to sign quickly. In fact, I'd be surprised if most of the weren't signed by Wednesday. Teams feel a need to win fans back right now due to the bitterness of the lockout, and making sure the players that fans love come back will be important. It is also important to note that all of the above players are also stars for their teams besides Franson. These deals should all be interesting as they'll set the marketplace in the new salary cap.
Cody Franson is a bit different though. After being acquired by Toronto two summers ago, he never seemed to mesh last season. He's a large, offensively gifted defenseman who isn't physical and isn't strong in his own end. He's fine on the power play, and sheltered with offensive zone starts. However, that's not something Toronto needs. I'm still expecting to see him get signed quickly, but likely traded quickly as well. He may be of interest for teams like Minnesota, Detroit, Dallas, and Edmonton who all look a little light on the blueline. He also could be part of a deal for Roberto Luongo, who many reporters have claimed Toronto has interest in.
I'll try to be post regularly now that the NHL is back, including more details about the new CBA once they're made readily available. In the mean time, I can't wait to start hearing about actual hockey news on Tuesday!
P.S. Also look for Kyle Palmieri (MIN), James Sheppard(SJ), and Nick Petrecki (SJ) to all be quickly signed. They're in the same boat, but will be signed to two-way deals and will likely play in the AHL.
Ryan O'Reilly - Colorado
Jamie Benn - Dallas
Dmitry Kulikov - Florida
P.K. Subban - Montreal
Micahel Del Zotto - New York Rangers
Cody Franson - Toronto
I full expect all of these players to sign quickly. In fact, I'd be surprised if most of the weren't signed by Wednesday. Teams feel a need to win fans back right now due to the bitterness of the lockout, and making sure the players that fans love come back will be important. It is also important to note that all of the above players are also stars for their teams besides Franson. These deals should all be interesting as they'll set the marketplace in the new salary cap.
Cody Franson is a bit different though. After being acquired by Toronto two summers ago, he never seemed to mesh last season. He's a large, offensively gifted defenseman who isn't physical and isn't strong in his own end. He's fine on the power play, and sheltered with offensive zone starts. However, that's not something Toronto needs. I'm still expecting to see him get signed quickly, but likely traded quickly as well. He may be of interest for teams like Minnesota, Detroit, Dallas, and Edmonton who all look a little light on the blueline. He also could be part of a deal for Roberto Luongo, who many reporters have claimed Toronto has interest in.
I'll try to be post regularly now that the NHL is back, including more details about the new CBA once they're made readily available. In the mean time, I can't wait to start hearing about actual hockey news on Tuesday!
P.S. Also look for Kyle Palmieri (MIN), James Sheppard(SJ), and Nick Petrecki (SJ) to all be quickly signed. They're in the same boat, but will be signed to two-way deals and will likely play in the AHL.
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