Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Wild West Preview

Thanks to the salary cap and the parity in the NHL, it is very difficult to predict the standings before the season starts. In fact, the standings are predominantly affected by what teams suffer injuries and what teams can remain healthy. Last year St. Louis, Colorado, and Pittsburgh all had to deal with a plethora of major injuries that likely prevented the teams from finishing as high as they could have. So, it's almost a crap shoot, but still, predicting where teams will end up is fun if only to see how off you are by the end of the season. So here I go:

1. Vancouver Canucks: The still have a very deep (if injured) team, a world class goalie, and play in the weakest division in the league. I think they should finish number one in the West again this year. 

2. San Jose Sharks: I like the acquisitions of Burns and Havlat quite a bit, though both players have spotty health histories. I don't see Burns and Boyle being able to run the same power play because they are both rover defenders, but that should just give the Sharks two deadly power play units. In short, the Sharks should still be able to take their division and second in the West.

3. Detroit Red Wings: This one is interesting. I think the Red Wings still have a potent and deep offense and could possibly have better defense and goaltending during the regular season. However if the loss of Rafalski handicaps the offense and if Howard doesn't play like two years ago and like in the playoffs last year, the Wings likely won't win the division. All things considered though, I'll take them ahead of Chicago.

4. Chicago Blackhawks: The Stanley Cup hangover is gone and most experts and fans believe this is a deeper team and last year's incarnation. I'm not sold that the additions of Brunette, Olesz, Montador, and Mayers make this team that much better - especially with the loss of Campbell or that Crawford won't have a sophomore slump, but I believe this team was a lot better than their eighth place finish last year and should have home ice advantage in the first round this year. 

5. Los Angeles Kings: Mike Richards gives this team the much needed 1-2 punch of star centers. Vancouver (H. Sedin - Kesler), San Jose (Thornton - Couture/Pavelski/Marleau), Detroit (Datsyuk - Zetterberg), and Chicago (Toews - Sharp) have discovered this as being a key to being among the elite in the West. However, I still question some of the supporting wingers and until the team signs Drew Doughty I don't see them finishing in the top four in the West.

6. St. Louis Blues: The Blues were absolutely hammered by injuries last year, which I don't think will happen again. The defense is still young and Halak still has to prove he can carry the load as a starter, but I think this team is too deep and talented not to make the playoffs this year. 

7. Nashville Predators: The Predators are really hoping that young players like Wilson, Kostitsyn, O'Reilly, Geoffrion, Smith, and Bergfors can create three scoring lines - though none would be a first line on most other teams. Still they have a strong defensive corps (look for Weber to challenge for the Norris again and Blum to challenge for the Calder) and a top-five goaltender in Rinne. Mixed with excellent coaching and a forward group strong on the defensive side of the puck and I think the Preds will find their way into the postseason again.

8. Colorado Avalanche: Another team that was hammered by injuries last year, I think the Avs have a great chance to get back into the postseason. Their offense is anchored by star centers Matt Duchene and Paul Stastny and will be able to score. Their defense is better than last year, and leaps and bounds better than the corps in both Minnesota and Edmonton. Their goaltending is injury-prone and unproven over a full season, but talented. Overall I think the weakness of the division will see the Avalanche back in the postseason. 

9. Anaheim Ducks: This team has the best line in hockey, an elite goalie if Jonas Hiller is full recovered from vertigo, and a lot of offense from their blue line. However the offensive depth is paper thin, and the defense, while a solid group on paper, isn't good at preventing scoring chances. This is a bubble team that could make the playoffs from their star power alone, but in the super competitive West I don't think they will again this year. 

10. Columbus Blue Jackets: With the additions of Carter, Wisniewski, Prospal and the potential of rookie Ryan Johansen making the team and making an impact this is probably the best team Columbus has ever iced. However the defense and goaltending are still thin, Steve Mason simply hasn't been good the past two years, and Wisniewski is already suspended. I would like to see this team make the playoffs and think they could, but once again they fall victim to the depth of the Western Conference. 

11. Calgary Flames: Essentially the same team as last year, and I'm expecting similar results. A veteran squad that just doesn't have what it takes to be a threat in the West. If Iginla's injury keeps him out of action,  I could see the Flames being a lottery team. 

12. Phoenix Coyotes: It's hard to bet against coach Dave Tippett, but after losing Bryzgalov and with a forward group that is either aging (Doan, Whitney, Langkow, Vrbata) or young and unproven (Boedker, McLean, the unsigned Turris) I don't see this team making the playoffs. Tippett should prevent them from being a bottom-dweller though.

13. Minnesota Wild: The Wild now have an absolutely lethal first line (Setoguchi - Koivu - Heatley) and not much else. Bouchard and Latendresse could be good second line wingers, but neither has shown an ability to remain healthy. They are thin at center and ridiculously thin and young on the blue line without any true workhorse or number one guy. Backstrom used to be a great goaltender in a defensive system, but now is just an above-average goaltender. The youth and future looks bright in Minnesota, but I feel as if this team would be best served with a top pick and grabbing a top-flight defender. 

14. Edmonton Oilers: The offense could be deep and explosive but also likely will be inconsistent due to its youth. The defense is terrible on paper and worse if Whitney can't make a healthy return. The goaltending is among the weakest in the league. I just don't think the team can challenge this year.

15. Dallas Stars: This team could be competitive, but their offense took a major hit without Richards and Neal around. I don't think Ryder and a breakout from Benn can make up for that. Also, history shows that another healthy year for starter Kari Lehtonen is far from a given. The defense is decent, but thin when it comes to guys who can play well in their own zone. I think it's going to be a rough year in Dallas. 


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