Why Detroit Should Acquire Jay Bouwmeester

The NHL trade deadline is Wednesday, April 3rd at 3 o'clock.

The Calgary Flames are in a selling mode after trading Jarome Iginla to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Various reports have quoted Jay Bouwmeester as having discussions with management about possibly being trades (he's got a no trade clause).

Meanwhile, Bob McKenzie has reported that the Wings continue to chase J-Bo. As they should.

Even tho STL added Leopold, my sense is Blues are still keen to add another D. STL and DET continue to chase CGY's Jay Bouwmeester.
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) April 1, 2013

Why? Well, right now Detroit has 9 defensemen. That's crazy. However, besides Kronwall (who's struggled defensively this season), none are top pairing guys. Ericsson, Colaiacovo (if he can stay healthy), Quincey, and White are all guys best suited for the second or third pairing and not matching up against a team's best line. Smith, Lashoff, and DeKeyser are all developing players who shouldn't have top four minutes at this point. And none project to be top pairing guys - good second pairing guys instead. Kindl is a bit of an enigma. Before this season, I'd have said he's a 6/7 guy. However he's played well this year and might be a 4/5 guy and a second pairing player.

So, let's go back to J-Bo. Nope, he's absolutely positively not a replacement for Nick Lidstrom. No, he's not the equivalent of Ryan Suter who the Wings pursued hard this summer and who in my mind should win the Norris this year. But, J-Bo is a very legitimate top-pairing shut-down defender.

If you take a look and understand the stats at behindthenet.ca, it's easy to see that Jay Bouwmeester faces top competition every night. He also starts in the defensive zone 59.4% of the time and finishes in it only 50.9% of the time. That means he's a terrific possession player and succeeds at getting the puck out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone. Also if you read this fantastic article by Steve Burtch of Pension Plan Puppets, you'll see that Bouwmeester is among the top forty in the NHL among defensemen at limiting shots. The Wings currently don't have any of the top forty players. Check out the spreadsheet he assembled if those kinds of advanced stats interest you.

Ok to anyone wanting to look at all 6 seasons of SDI data here's the link to the spreadsheet: dropbox.com/s/279fyv3jkqfu…
— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) April 1, 2013

Now, Bouwmeester won't provide a ton of offense. But Kronwall, his likely partner if the trade is made, does. And Smith should continue to develop offensively. The bottom line is the guy is a top pairing defender, much less the top four guy that Ken Holland has said he'll look for this deadline.

What do the Wings give up for him? Well, in the above article it's stated it won't be this year's first round pick. That's probably hard for Calgary to swallow. But, per Roger Millions (Calgary beat writer) the Flames would likely want a D. Well, Detroit has plenty of those.

#Wings would not have to. Yet, I believe #Flames would need a defenceman back from Detroit as part of any deal.
— Roger Millions (@RogMillions) April 1, 2013

So, which D? Well, let's assume Kronwall, Lashoff, Smith, and DeKeyser are untouchables. Colaiacovo has played two games this year... nobody is taking him. Quincey is injured though he's scheduled to return Thursday. Holland won't move Ericsson, and he's got a limited no-trade clause anyway. Ian White is a UFA and thus not anything more than a rental. So, that leaves Kindl.

Kindl's been a pleasant surprise this year, but hasn't found consistency and still isn't more than a second pairing, second power play unit guy. He's not enough.

The Wings would likely have to deal one of Nyquist or Tatar in this deal as well. That sucks, as those guys should be top six forwards for years to come. But Babcock refuses to use either correctly as he doesn't trust them defensively so they're not getting the minutes and quality linemates they need with the Wings. With Jarnkrok, Jurco, Frk, and Pulkkinen in the system, I'm okay with the Wings trading one of those guys for Bouwmeester.

Kindl and Nyquist/Tatar is a good package. We'd probably have to throw in a second round pick and maybe a third.

And hey, we could get those draft picks back by dealing Ian White as a rental... giving us 8 D. Just saying.

Anyway, that's where I'm at: 2nd, Kindl, Nyquist/Tatar, and a 3rd if necessary for Bouwmeester.

Sure, it'll create a cap problem, but I think that can be fixed easily enough this summer with trades and buyouts.

Northwest Division Preview

Continuing my division previews...

Vancouver Canucks

Good: Vancouver hasn't done a lot this offseason, but what they did do was replace Sami Salo with Jason Garrison. While last year may have been a career season offensively for Garrison that he won't be able to replicated, he is a very well rounded defender who will easily slide into Vancouver's top four. He's also in his prime and is typically pretty healthy - two things Salo is not. Garrison should provide a boost to an already talented Vancouver team.

Bad: Ryan Kesler's injury is concerning as after trading Hodgson, Vancouver simply does not have anyone ready to step in as the second line center. This will also impact the likes of Booth and Raymond who won't produce the same numbers without Kesler as their pivot.

Ugly: Roberto Luongo's trade request will continue to be the story until he's actually traded. And while Schneider looks like the real deal, I see Vancouver fans getting down on him within a couple of years as he has a tendency to make some major errors while playing the puck and Vancouver has quickly become one of the toughest markets on a goalie. In my mind, what this means is that Vancouver can't really afford to just give Luongo away. We'll have to see how much value they can get for him..

Bottom Line: Vancouver will once again be the top team in the Western Conference.


Colorado Avalanche

Good: Colorado was able to replace Peter Mueller with P.A. Parenteau - an improvement if only because Parenteau doesn't have the injury history that Mueller does. Meanwhile, the team was able to reasonably re-sign both Johnson and Duchene. Their young core should also be expected to continue improving this season.

Bad: Last year was a down year for both Paul Stastny and Matt Duchene. Based on some of the decisions made last season, I'm not completely sold that Joe Sacco is the best coach for these players. Mueller leaving is also bad even though he was replaced by Parenteau, as one would have to believe at his salary he could have returned in addition to the team signing Parenteau. Stastny and Duchene simply need talented players in order for their talents to really shine.

Ugly: Varlamov ran very hot and cold last year and will need to be more consistent to fully justify the draft picks given up to bring him into the fold. Sacco also needs to display a better understanding of how to manage Duchene and Stastny so that their offensive talents can equate to actual offense.

Bottom Line: Colorado will be in the hunt for a playoff spot all season long with a large grouping of teams. I see them finishing anywhere from 7th to 10th.


Minnesota Wild

Good: Well, this is easy. Any team that adds Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as free agents had a really good summer. They also added depth forwards Torrey Mitchell, Zenon Konopka, and Jake Dowell. They also have rookies Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Jonas Brodin, Brett Bulmer, Jason Zucker, Johan Larsson, and Zack Phillips turning pro for a full year. There's just a lot of good stuff going on here.

Bad: Take a look at that defense besides Ryan Suter. Tom Gilbert is a solid second pairing guy. Jared Spurgeon is ready to be a second pairing guy, but I'm not sure if he's ready to log minutes next to Suter all game as is expected. After that? Marco Scandella, Clayton Stoner, Justin Falk, Nate Prosser. Maybe Steve Kampfer, Jonas Brodin, or Matt Dumba. This is a really young, inexperienced group with a lot to prove. They'll need really good coaching in order to be successful. Also, I'm curious how the higher expectations will factor into the play in Minnesota as in reality they're definitely not a lock to make the playoffs this year.

Ugly: The expectation is that Granlund will be the second line center. He's immensely talented, but I'm not sure if that'll be a seamless transition. He'll have the likes of Setoguchi, Bouchard, and Cullen as possible wingers or maybe another rookie like Zucker or Coyle. I see that second line being inconsistent, at least in the first half of the season as Granlund adjusts to the North American game. And I think Minnesota's inexperienced defense will make a balanced attack up front very much a necessity.

Bottom Line: There is a ton to be excited for in Minnesota. I love this team going forward. But this year, this team is very much a bubble team. The playoffs are very possible, but so is finishing ninth or tenth. I'll be watching them a lot of GameCenter Live though (of course I always do thanks to their beautiful jerseys).


Calgary Flames

Good: Jiri Hudler and Dennis Wideman? Meh, I guess those are nice if overpriced additions. But, I'm excited to see Sven Baertschi all year young. He'll be a contender for rookie of the year. A full year of Cammalleri should be a good thing. Should. And I'm intrigued by Roman Cervanka. But Baertschi. That's what's good here. Oh, and Bob Hartley. I think he's an excellent coach whom I still can't believe couldn't find a job in the NHL for a while.

Bad: Losing Moss and Jokinen who were pretty successful playing shutdown roles last year hurts. I've got no idea who's going to get those minutes now. Nobody really fits the bill.

Ugly: Those contracts handed out to Hudler and Wideman and rather ugly. This a cap team without noticeably improving their roster from last year and apart from Baertschi, they don't have an exceptionally bright future in terms of prospects. And Jarome Iginla's contract is almost up. Unless this team exceeds expectations, that's going to be an ugly situation.

Bottom Line: Calgary will once again be a bubble team. With the improvements that Minnesota and Dallas made, along with Colorado and Edmonton likely being more competitive, I still see Calgary on the outside looking in.


Edmonton Oilers

Good: Though expected, it was a good move being able to sign Justin Schultz. Yakupov, of course, also looks like he'll be a star.

Bad: This team was the second worst team in the league last year and subtracted Cam Barker and will add two rookies to the lineup. I don't care how much the young guys improve, that simply isn't a recipe for a successful season. And the defense just does not look strong whatsoever.

Ugly: Dubnyk's contract fits the bill here. So does the tandem of Dubnyk/Khabibulin. It could work, but likely won't with this teams defensive corps. The handling of Omark, Paajarvi, and Hemsky has been confusing at best.

Bottom Line: This team will need to be pure run-and-gun to be successful, but I just don't see a lot of success this year. I'm expecting another top five pick for Edmonton next year.